clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 If you watch the animation of that 500 panel above you can see the block relaxing and surging. We are gonna get hit during at least one of those relaxations. And I dont care what the weeklies say. A block like that is most likely going to be persistent throughout the entire winter. Could it relax and be less extreme towards mid February. Yep. And that might actually be a great thing for us. Just look at how the models have been handling this so far. Cutters into a strong -NAO? I have been more worried about suppression than anything else ever since the models starting advertising the extreme blocking. We are going to get ours this winter. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Meh...looks like 2018 Nope. Charlottesville gets nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GFS again dropping a TPV lobe down around D12. Ensembles are picking up on this and seem to want to rotate it into the 50/50 region/SE Can toward the end of their runs. Timing is dif on each and its muted due to the range. This lines up with the calls for post 1/15 cold. At that point we still have a -NAO/AO and a nice pac but we can add in some decent midwinter cold as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Let me guess (honestly haven’t looked)...weeks 3-4 look great then it pops a typical Nina central pac ridge and in response dumps the trough into western Canada which pops the SE ridge. All long range guidance has been doing that since the pattern began to change in late November and it’s been stuck in fantasy land range since. My guess is they are relying too much on enso and try to revert to a canonical Nina look at range. Same exact mistake they made wrt the nino in 2019. If the whatever is driving the non typical Nina loon in the north Pac (perhaps the odd SST anomaly there) abates we very well could revert to that. But until we see that look move inside week 3 it’s hard to worry about it since guidance keeps pushing it off and we should have been in that look weeks ago according to all the long range guidance in early Dec. Yes and it did it the last few runs too once beyond week 4. I only mentioned it to keep the good vibes from today going in here. In all seriousness- as I said- its usually complete crap beyond week 3 or 4 at the most. The main takeaway was the continuation of the cold the EPS is depicting towards the end of its run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Nope. Charlottesville gets nothing. Good lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yes and it did it the last few runs too once beyond week 4. I only mentioned it to keep the good vibes from today going in here. In all seriousness- as I said- its usually complete crap beyond week 3 or 4 at the most. The main takeaway was the continuation of the cold the EPS is depicting towards the end of its run. Euro weeklies, gefs extended, CFS have all been doing that past week 3/4 since November. But it never moves closer in time. This is all anecdotal but the last several years it seems that once you get past week 4 on long range guidance it consistently tries to revert the pattern to whatever makes sense based on what guidance thinks is the dominant forcing mechanism. Last year it correctly identified the MC tropical forcing and the +++AO and so it did very well. In other years when it misidentified what was the dominant drivers it continually head faked a mirage pattern change. This year feels more like the latter based on early returns. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 They really should just remove stages 6,7,8,1 from the MJO phase diagram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Everyone just relax by this time tomorrow the models will remove these phantom sw’s that are hurting us. Well be fine 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not sure what you mean. We need suppressed. Just not too much. But frankly the difference between a DC or a VA/NC border snowstorm is too subtle to show up on a 7 day h5 hemisphere view mean. I could show you a 7 day mean from a DC snow period and a Richmond to Raleigh one and you probably couldn’t tell the difference. That’s just a chance we have to take. Let me post the mean of DCs 15 snowiest winters one more time to compare. this is a 5 day mean from the EPS centered day 10-15 Yea, I get that it’s a mean. Like I said. I probably didn’t articulate my point properly. Aren’t the iso bars on the 500mb flat and spaces closed together off the eastern seaboard. Wouldn’t that suggest fast flow (ISO’s being close together) and flat (the ISO’s angle is almost horizontal). Is that not suggestive of a faster and flatter flow off the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: So this week is week 4 of a weekly run 4 weeks ago...how did it do? This... which isn’t terrible for a week 4 prog except it’s pretty much a carbon copy of week 4 all cold season. Mid November this is what it thought the week mid Dec we missed one snow to the south and another hit our northern 1/3 would look like And 3 weeks ago this is what it thought this next week were now worried about suppression from a big eastern trough would look like... And 2 weeks ago it had this for the week around the 15th that looks great on Eps now seems like a familiar theme from a month out on the weeklies... 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This... which isn’t terrible for a week 4 prog except it’s pretty much a carbon copy of week 4 all cold season. Mid November this is what it thought the week mid Dec we missed one snow to the south and another hit our northern 1/3 would look like And 3 weeks ago this is what it thought this next week were now worried about suppression from a big eastern trough would look like... mans 2 weeks ago it had this for the week around the 15th that looks great on Eps now seems like a familiar theme from a month out on the weeklies... Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Yea, I get that it’s a mean. Like I said. I probably didn’t articulate my point properly. Aren’t the iso bars on the 500mb flat and spaces closed together off the eastern seaboard. Wouldn’t that suggest fast flow (ISO’s being close together) and flat (the ISO’s angle is almost horizontal). Is that not suggestive of a faster and flatter flow off the Atlantic? You mean the flow into the Atlantic? We are upwind not down. They are packed tighter because that’s where the mean storm track is and so you get a tighter thermal zone there. They are more w-e because of the block. Storms cannot gain much latitude under that. And that’s what we want. A minor gain in lat like say from NC to MD before turning east is what we want but that will get washed out on a 7 day mean. Look at the mean for our best snow years. It’s the same feature. A W-E oriented trough from the mid Atlantic across the Atlantic Ocean. That’s a blocked signature. Storms cannot lift poleward because of the block end are forced east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 the 18z run for NAVGEM looks amazing again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: the 18z run for NAVGEM looks amazing again But does it remind you of something??? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 WB 18Z EURO....only goes out 90 hours but seems to have more precipitation in NW compared to 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But does it remind you of something??? C’mon man. Don’t be so harsh. If it showed that much rain for you you would be pumped too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Let’s just cut the bs. When tf is it going to snow? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Let’s just cut the bs. When tf is it going to snow? Rain for Roanoke. This weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 This looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 WB 18Z EPS. Mean did bump slightly North. Positive spin is to say it it trending toward the UKMET.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 That’s a pretty good shift especially for the southern part of the forum. I’m certainly not writing off this weekend’s threat. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Psu. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Psu . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 54 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Let’s just cut the bs. When tf is it going to snow? Agreed! And ffs how much for DC and Philly, respectively? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just saw 18z EPS Indies. Actually some solid hits for DC/MD. A number of coastal scrapers. Hmmm... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS. Mean did bump slightly North. Positive spin is to say it it trending toward the UKMET.... If only this was the mid-December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: If only this was the mid-December storm. You call this a storm? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: You call this a storm? Figuratively. We call everything a storm. Few live up to the name. This won’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just saw 18z EPS Indies. Actually some solid hits for DC/MD. A number of coastal scrapers. Hmmm... I think as others have said in this thread that if that h5 piece is further north or doesn't exist then this will come further north... though if there is enough cold air for it is another question. Haven't done a deep dive into 2mT or 850 temps on the 12z UKMET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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