mattie g Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 hours ago, mattie g said: You've told us that already. 32 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Accuweather seems to be copying and pasting their map from 2018 lol. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 I know @psuhoffman posted some 12z EPS h5 charts last page... but this is also nice to see (h/t @griteater ) 23 minutes ago, griteater said: Impressive look developing at the end on the EPS Mean here with heavy west based -NAO via Davis Strait ridging and deep blues off the Canadian Maritimes / and removal of Gulf of Alaska Low (Jan 12-19) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 36 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate. One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch Whether or not we go to "constant warmth" from mid month onward remains to be seen however as of this current moment there is absolutely zero evidence that supports that prediction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 JMA progression is amazingly similar to the Euro https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2021010412&fh=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: This whole Stratospheric Warming Event is gonna be one of the most overhyped bust in memory (for the eastern U.S.) Like just about every other time it's hyped? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Like just about every other time it's hyped? we got a mid Dec snowstorm just by weather happening. It got cold and there was a storm to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s obvious you don’t look at the guidance and are responding to what you read from weenies online. There was maybe a 24 hour period back before Xmas where the euro and GFS (CMC never bought it) head faked a faster progression to a -NAO. But other then that one day NWP always pegged a flip to a -NAO as being around Jan 5 and a flip to a colder and more snow friendly regime AFTER January 10-15. People are just impatient and jumping on every long shot wild fantasy possibility before then. The guidance NEVER indicated a snowstorm in the last 2 weeks. There was a random run or two where one outlier operational tun showed some snow and weenies jumped on it. But that is NOT a guidance failure. A true snowstorm signal is when a majority of guidance across multiple consecutive runs shows it. Like right now...the UKMET shows snow Friday. But every other run misses. To guidance is NOT predicting snow. It’s predicting a miss. But some weenie will post that I be UK run snow map and then you will proclaim guidance was wrong. Guidance wasn’t wrong...you simply don’t know how to use it properly. Now I will be awaiting your post telling me how you weren’t talking to me and I shouldn’t respond to you because your wisdom is above reproach. Almost every discussion has focused on the period near mid month forward of being one that could provide several opportunities. Ignoring the cliff jumpers who expected a blizzard already, is there anything that has surfaced recently that gives you reason to question whether the pattern still looks favorable for us down the road? To me that’s more important than agonizing over model runs for this weekends snow/ no snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate. One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch Just so I’m clear. You are claiming that an undefined conglomerate of meteorologists forecasts were collectively precisely 14 percent wrong over an undefined time period. I’m just trying to follow your scientific logic here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 14 percent of the time we get a HECS everytime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: 14 percent of the time we get a HECS everytime. @JakkelWxNeed to use this as a permanent quote for all posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Everyone complaining about no cold recently gonna be crying about too much soon watch... Bring it! 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Week 1 might be a bit too much blocking... but week 2 everything is exactly where we want imo. And it’s typical we score as blocking relaxes not as it peaks. If we can’t score with that look... People have been touting this frame as an ideal pattern. And it is a good look (if it happens) but that flow is fast coming off the Atlantic, and the look (verbatim) is more indicative of suppression. I’d like to see that ensemble mean hint at more blocked flow and not so progressive 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 RVA is destined for this one. Has my name written all over it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Models are having a really hard time with this storm......the HH GFS is an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, blizzardmeiser said: Almost every discussion has focused on the period near mid month forward of being one that could provide several opportunities. Ignoring the cliff jumpers who expected a blizzard already, is there anything that has surfaced recently that gives you reason to question whether the pattern still looks favorable for us down the road? To me that’s more important than agonizing over model runs for this weekends snow/ no snow event. No everything still looks on track. And everything is progressing on the timeline as expected. If anything the progression is ahead of schedule. Imo the issue is people are impatient and because blocking is setting in within the next 48 hours we can now see the first couple waves within a reasonable lead on guidance. But we’re still at the inception of this blocking pattern and some because it’s been so long since they had snow are already treating each model run like we’re 48 hours before a big storm and living and dying emotionally on every little turn. It’s way too soon for that. A high probability discreet threat hasn’t come in range yet. Perhaps Jan 12 becomes that. If it does I bet we see signs in the next 48 hours as it breaches the 150 lead. That seems to be the magic spot where guidance starts to hone in on synoptic level generalities lately. But getting tore up over changes on 180 hour progs isn’t productive. Other then looking at the Friday system and seeing if that changes at all I am still just peeking at the ensembles each run to see how the longwave pattern is progressing. Everything after Friday is still out of range for the emotional turmoil people are putting themselves through. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 46 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Bring it! People have been touting this frame as an ideal pattern. And it is a good look (if it happens) but that flow is fast coming off the Atlantic, and the look (verbatim) is more indicative of suppression. I’d like to see that ensemble mean hint at more blocked flow and not so progressive I’m not sure what you mean. We need suppressed. Just not too much. But frankly the difference between a DC or a VA/NC border snowstorm is too subtle to show up on a 7 day h5 hemisphere view mean. I could show you a 7 day mean from a DC snow period and a Richmond to Raleigh one and you probably couldn’t tell the difference. That’s just a chance we have to take. Let me post the mean of DCs 15 snowiest winters one more time to compare. this is a 5 day mean from the EPS centered day 10-15 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I heard this weekend looks like 2018. Any truth to that? Don’t know where you’ve heard that from. Not a single mention of it here 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Everything after Friday is still out of range for the emotional turmoil people are putting themselves through. A weenies's therapist, I love it ! I personally feel happier reading that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 New edition of the Euro Weeklies continue from the previous version with a decidedly colder look the last half of Jan. I won't mention where it goes from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not sure what you mean. We need suppressed. Just not too much. But frankly the difference between a DC or a VA/NC border snowstorm is too subtle to show up on a 7 day h5 hemisphere view mean. I could show you a 7 day mean from a DC snow period and a Richmond to Raleigh one and you probably couldn’t tell the difference. That’s just a chance we have to take. Let me post the mean of DCs 15 snowiest winters one more time to compare. this is a 5 day mean from the EPS centered week 2 That's essentially a carbon copy of our snowiest pattern. It would take an insane amount of bad luck (even for mid-atlantic standards) not to see a warning-level event in that pattern, as depicted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: New edition of the Euro Weeklies continue from the previous version with a decidedly colder look the last half of Jan. I won't mention where it goes form there. Oh go ahead and mention it..you know you will anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Oh go ahead and mention it..you know you will anyway. Just think typical Nina. Or what PSU has been fearing. Good thing is, its pretty much crap beyond 2 weeks(after the run it initializes on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: New edition of the Euro Weeklies continue from the previous version with a decidedly colder look the last half of Jan. I won't mention where it goes from there. into February? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Just think typical Nina. Or what PSU has been fearing. Good thing is, its pretty much crap beyond 2 weeks(after the run it initializes on). So this week is week 4 of a weekly run 4 weeks ago...how did it do? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just think typical Nina. Or what PSU has been fearing. Good thing is, its pretty much crap beyond 2 weeks(after the run it initializes on). So what you are saying is we may be seeing the back edge before the storm is even on the map? Now that sounds like the MA I know and love. Get Ji in here stat. He has something funny to say about this I just know it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: So what you are saying is we may be seeing the back edge before the storm is even on the map? Now that sounds like the MA I know and love. Get Ji in here stat. He has something funny to say about this I just know it. Stay on the ledge brother. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Stay on the ledge brother. I live on he ledge. Maybe we push the jumping until Feb 1st? Gotta at least give it a fair shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 NAVGEM 12z looks tasty for everyone this weekend! Go navy! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, Snowchaser said: NAVGEM 12z looks tasty for everyone this weekend! Go navy! Meh...looks like 2018 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: New edition of the Euro Weeklies continue from the previous version with a decidedly colder look the last half of Jan. I won't mention where it goes from there. Let me guess (honestly haven’t looked)...weeks 3-4 look great then it pops a typical Nina central pac ridge and in response dumps the trough into western Canada which pops the SE ridge. All long range guidance has been doing that since the pattern began to change in late November and it’s been stuck in fantasy land range since. My guess is they are relying too much on enso and try to revert to a canonical Nina look at range. Same exact mistake they made wrt the nino in 2019. If the whatever is driving the non typical Nina loon in the north Pac (perhaps the odd SST anomaly there) abates we very well could revert to that. But until we see that look move inside week 3 it’s hard to worry about it since guidance keeps pushing it off and we should have been in that look weeks ago according to all the long range guidance in early Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Meh...looks like 2018 Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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