Imgoinhungry Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: look at this Low at 240...would be supressed for areas like Lousiana Texas is the place to be for snow this year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Don’t ever wish to see suppressed systems. Not ever. Hope for juiced up bombs. Especially this time of year. You’ve always got cad to help even if it’s not an all snow event 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: you havent seen anything yet....im in my Calm mode haha Attica! Attica! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s interesting. We had a good 6-8” of snow everywhere here by Feb 6. Of course we got 7” on Jan 30 and 6” on Feb 2 so hanging on to half of it wasn’t hard. There is sort of a “critical mass” of snow necessary to sustain snowcover through a “normal” temperature day around here. The amount necessary to withstand some melt and compaction then freeze solid the next night. It depends on the moisture content of the snow also. I’ve noted that critical mass is about ~6” if it’s a dryer snow and ~4” if it’s a wet snow. Both those events although not that cold were very low moisture here with high ratios due to perfect snow growth. I had about 3.5” and 4.5” but neither was enough to withstand the next days melt. But it was very close...bereft melted each time with shady patches left and I bet if you added 1-2” to each event I would have kept snowcover all that week. You know on second thought that year totally underperformed and was overrated. @Ji is right!!! 16 minutes ago, Ji said: they are all close enough. Thats the problem. Close only counts in horseshoes Wanna play hand grenades? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 All the cutters on guidance a few days ago never made sense. If we fail in this pattern suppression is way way way more likely the reason why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Wes and Jason at CWG with a good article today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Everyone complaining about no cold recently gonna be crying about too much soon watch... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 We’ve got about another 24 hours before the models realize that that little disruptive piece of energy is a phantom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Wes and Jason at CWG with a good article today. Does it say it’s gonna snow? If not, not reading lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Does it say it’s gonna snow? If not, not reading lol Basically upcoming pattern more conducive but beware the hype since good pattern doesn’t always equal snow and temps are marginal. A typical wet blanket CWG post lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Does it say it’s gonna snow? If not, not reading lol In true CWG style it says basically the pattern is looking more favorable for snow but it could still be rain and it could miss us to the south. They pretty much said the exact same thing Ji said only in english 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Basically upcoming pattern more conducive but beware the hype since good pattern doesn’t always equal snow and temps are marginal. A typical wet blanket CWG post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: In true CWG style it says basically the pattern is looking more favorable for snow but it could still be rain and it could miss us to the south. They pretty much said the exact same thing Ji said only in english Yeah as much as I like CWG their forecasts and articles are brutal. They're so concerned about "communicating uncertainty" that it seems like they never actually make any forecasts, they just tell you anything could happen. That way they're never wrong! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: In true CWG style it says basically the pattern is looking more favorable for snow but it could still be rain and it could miss us to the south. They pretty much said the exact same thing Ji said only in english Copy cat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah as much as I like CWG their forecasts and articles are brutal. They're so concerned about "communicating uncertainty" that it seems like they never actually make any forecasts, they just tell you anything could happen. That way they're never wrong! If I were to be serious for a second I actually don't think it's about not being wrong I think it is because as we exhibit on here daily when things don't go the way we want some react like a bunch of toddlers with a full diaper....do any of us really believe that there aren't a ton more people like that in the general public? I think they do it right to play it safe and down the middle even though it drives us nuts....but...look at how some here are acting when a pattern that really is still about 15 days away are acting because we started talking about it positively in late December...some just got too excited before it really is time to be excited. All my opinion anyway...now back to NOT being serious. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 So far of the EPS, I’ve only seen the H5 setup for next week as posted elsewhere by @Wentzadelphia. I don’t hate it, that’s for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: So far of the EPS, I’ve only seen the H5 setup for next week as posted elsewhere by @Wentzadelphia. I don’t hate it, that’s for sure. Concern I see is potentially the block is centered to far south? . As we move forward in time however the look up top looks ripe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Accuweather seems to be copying and pasting their map from 2018 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: If I were to be serious for a second I actually don't think it's about not being wrong I think it is because as we exhibit on here daily when things don't go the way we want some react like a bunch of toddlers with a full diaper....do any of us really believe that there aren't a ton more people like that in the general public? I think they do it right to play it safe and down the middle even though it drives us nuts....but...look at how some here are acting when a pattern that really is still about 15 days away are acting because we started talking about it positively in late December...some just got too excited before it really is time to be excited. All my opinion anyway...now back to NOT being serious. The acting out is because the good pattern is always 15 days away, it’s been 15 days away since Dec 15.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I heard this weekend looks like 2018. Any truth to that? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Accuweather seems to be copying and pasting their map from 2018 lol. Does this remind you of something 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just thinking out loud....the cold generally underperforms here. My guess there will be some relaxation to those extreme pushes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, GATECH said: The acting out is because the good pattern is always 15 days away, it’s been 15 days away since Dec 15.... meaning there hasn't been a good pattern yet and it was stated quite clearly that post January 15th and later was our better shot not January 8th. Full diaper? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So far of the EPS, I’ve only seen the H5 setup for next week as posted elsewhere by @Wentzadelphia. I don’t hate it, that’s for sure. Week 1 might be a bit too much blocking... but week 2 everything is exactly where we want imo. And it’s typical we score as blocking relaxes not as it peaks. If we can’t score with that look... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Just thinking out loud....the cold generally underperforms here. My guess there will be some relaxation to those extreme pushes. Plus that cold push is ok so long as the blocking relaxes slowly (odds favor that given the current pattern). It’s as the blocking pattern relaxes but a cold antecedent airmass is left in place that our BEST windows come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Plus that cold push is ok so long as the blocking relaxes slowly (odds favor that given the current pattern). It’s as the blocking pattern relaxes but a cold antecedent airmass is left in place that our BEST windows come. I don't think some of these guys are going to make it 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate. One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate. One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch so it's your prediction that it will snow between the 15th and the 20th then we flip warm for the rest of the winter? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: meaning there hasn't been a good pattern yet and it was stated quite clearly that post January 15th and later was our better shot not January 8th. Full diaper? I know, I know, just testing the waters on future whining. All I know is that I am currently winning the snowfall contest, and I am not happy about it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate. One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch It’s obvious you don’t look at the guidance and are responding to what you read from weenies online. There was maybe a 24 hour period back before Xmas where the euro and GFS (CMC never bought it) head faked a faster progression to a -NAO. But other then that one day NWP always pegged a flip to a -NAO as being around Jan 5 and a flip to a colder and more snow friendly regime AFTER January 10-15. People are just impatient and jumping on every long shot wild fantasy possibility before then. The guidance NEVER indicated a snowstorm in the last 2 weeks. There was a random run or two where one outlier operational run showed some snow and weenies jumped on it. But that is NOT a guidance failure. A true snowstorm signal is when a majority of guidance across multiple consecutive runs shows it. Like right now...the UKMET shows snow Friday. But every other run misses. The guidance is NOT predicting snow. It’s predicting a miss. But some weenie will post that one UK run snow map and then you will proclaim guidance was wrong. Guidance wasn’t wrong...you simply don’t know how to use it properly. Now I will be awaiting your post telling me how you weren’t talking to me and I shouldn’t respond to you because your wisdom is above reproach. 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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