January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

My takeaway from the Op runs is that we have more chances past the 11/12th. Won’t have any clarity on those for awhile, but we’re certainly in the game.

I actually like the chaos on the models...means we actually have a chance when it doesn't look like we do because the shit changes with every run.  It keeps us in the ballpark, tho I am rapidly losing interest in the 8th.  Door is open, but I'm not enthused.  

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I actually like the chaos on the models...means we actually have a chance when it doesn't look like we do because the shit changes with every run.  It keeps us in the ballpark, tho I am rapidly losing interest in the 8th.  Door is open, but I'm not enthused.  

I think this weekend was always a long shot, but there was a slight chance it came through.  The 11th-13th should be our first real chance and then the doors are wide open for us after that

[yoda]

FWIW, 12z UKIE is a good hit i95 and west for Friday

[JakkelWx]

Setting my debbie downer side aside, we will have MANY threats between now and mid-feurbary. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

New England vort is out of the way more. But Plains shortwave is faster and stronger and the storms closed low is weaker. Feels like a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation.

There are multiple factors (like the kicker and the NS SW) but the biggest issue is over the last 36 hours guidance has consistently been weakening the upper low which allows it to get squashed further and further south 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

FWIW, 12z UKIE is a good hit i95 and west for Friday

Make that a nice hit Friday evening into Saturday morning

[frd]

Initially many thought this +EAMT event was going to be huge, but here HM posts something interesting to the contrary.

@antmasiello

·

44m

 

Replying to

@MJVentrice

and

@ScottSabolFOX8

So far, the EAMT hasn't been all that impressive BTW. The bulk of the pressure gradient has not been aligned properly for big spike. Regardless, the high itself was obviously very strong and had stratospheric impacts.

 

 

[yoda]

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, yoda said:

Make that a nice hit Friday evening into Saturday morning

The waves have been slowing down in general which is common in blocking regimes on guidance. Perhaps at this point a much slower progression is our best bet to get the flow to relax enough to our northeast.

[IUsedToHateCold]

Ukie is on an island. That said, models didn't clue into the exact track and strength of the December storm until 2-3 days out, so I would think there is no reason to give up on it. On to 18z

[JakkelWx]

11 minutes ago, frd said:

Initially many thought this +EAMT event was going to be huge, but here HM posts something interesting to the contrary.

@antmasiello

·

44m

 

Replying to

@MJVentrice

and

@ScottSabolFOX8

So far, the EAMT hasn't been all that impressive BTW. The bulk of the pressure gradient has not been aligned properly for big spike. Regardless, the high itself was obviously very strong and had stratospheric impacts.

 

 

Doesn't matter, the SSW is already occurring and we're going to have about a month or so of cold and many opportunities for snow.

[ovechkin]

Pretty impressive how far North the Ukie gets precip. 
 

Would be simply awesome to get even a light snowfall before a home playoff game at Fed Ex!

[frd]

6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Doesn't matter, the SSW is already occurring and we're going to have about a month or so of cold and many opportunities for snow.

Agreed but thought it interesting as many focused on that series of events in regards to the push of very warm air into Western NA .

[Ji]

i dont remember the UK ever being right

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i dont remember the UK ever being right

It was the first model to pickup on 25 Jan 2000...so there is that 

[AmericanWxFreak]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i dont remember the UK ever being right

it nailed the 96 blizz... short memory you must have... this model is stellar

[Yeoman]

33 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Setting my debbie downer side aside, we will have MANY threats between now and mid-feurbary. 

of any given winter

[WVclimo]

4 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

it nailed the 96 blizz... short memory you must have... this model is stellar

25th anniversary of that storm this week.  Maybe the UK can nail another one.

[Dabuckeyes]

Not to play the role of downer, but I remember on many occasions where the UK is the last to lose the storm idea.  Still time though to see if that's the case here.

[poolz1]

Hey, Binghamton weenies were probably having this same discussion 4 days before the Dec storm.

[WinterWxLuvr]

47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I actually like the chaos on the models...means we actually have a chance when it doesn't look like we do because the shit changes with every run.  It keeps us in the ballpark, tho I am rapidly losing interest in the 8th.  Door is open, but I'm not enthused.  

You and I think exactly alike

[nj2va]

GEFS starts building heights in the PNA domain around D8/9 and by D10, we have this look.  

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, frd said:

Agreed but thought it interesting as many focused on that series of events in regards to the push of very warm air into Western NA .

The failure there is likely related to the suddenly less hostile look this week to the point a storm Friday that was supposed to be a cutter might get suppressed south of us. Last week I was pointing out the NE ridge was originating from a heat flux in the tropical pac. When that died suddenly the ridge in the east went away. 

[psuhoffman]

@frd there is bickering amongst the strat peeps wrt the significance of that long term.  I think this flux failure itself doesn’t have any since the SSW is underway without it. But I see some posts that make sense that if future heat fluxes fail we might not get the subsequent SPV weaknesses that portent better propagation into the Trop. That could mean less impact into Feb.

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd there is bickering amongst the strat peeps wrt the significance of that long term.  I think this flux failure itself doesn’t have any since the SSW is underway without it. But I see some posts that make sense that if future heat fluxes fail we might not get the subsequent SPV weaknesses that portent better propagation into the Trop. That could mean less impact into Feb.

Yes very interesting. Also looking at where a split may occur and the progression from there. Still looking forward to a good period with Pac improvement and favorable longwave pattern. 

 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont remember the UK ever being right

That’s because the only time we ever pay attention to it (mostly because of its lack of easy access) is when the other guidance isn’t showing what we want and it is. And none of the guidance typically performs well when it’s on its own...even the euro.  Even the euro isn’t so much superior that it should be given preference if it’s an outlier amongst all guidance.  Any model that shows a vastly different prog then the consensus is “likely” wrong. Every once in a while the outlier is onto something and scores a coup. Every model has had its example of that. But it’s not a good bet. 

[WxUSAF]

Much clearer signal for the 11/12th on the 12z gefs than I’ve seen previously.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Yes very interesting. Also looking at where a split may occur and the progression from there. Still looking forward to a good period with Pac improvement and favorable longwave pattern. 

 

It does not look like this SSW will help us wrt arctic cold.  That seems directed to Asia. But it likely will favor continued weakness on the TPV and that should help is wrt blocking. We will just have to make due with domestic cold, same as 2010. I wonder if people realize how mild we would have been straight through that whole snowmageddon period had the storms not hit.  We had one decent transient shot of cold in late Jan but after that we would have had highs near 50 had those storms not hit. Even up here all the snow from the Jan 30 and Feb 2 storms melted by the time Feb 6 happened. And even with 50” of snow otg highs were near 40 up here immediately after those 2 HECS.  It was not a cold pattern at all. Would have been avg temps if not for the snowcover. Maybe even above avg. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Much clearer signal for the 11/12th on the 12z gefs than I’ve seen previously.

Good.  I still feel optimistic  about where this is heading and think our chances increase the further into this pattern we go. Perhaps peaking around the 20th depending on whether the blocking breaks or recycles. But unlike some I totally get @Ji.  I feel what he says in my tormented unfiltered inner weenie soul. I just try to get a grip and apply a logic filter before posting.  Most of the time!  But it’s frustrating when we’ve had so little snow lately to have to wait. But I do think this would require a pretty monumental epic fail not to get at least one hit from this pattern. 

[yoda]

EURO a miss for Friday