BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Would a positive tilting ridge out west hurt us at all? That's what the eps shows in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 ICON made a big jump west for end of week storm, although not enough yet to make a difference for DMV. 6z compared to 12Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: The storm threat this week reminds a lot of 2018. this is what happened —> and this was the forecast —> Didn't we have legit arctic air with that one? I think I remember smoking cirrus up here in the DC area and it being like 20 degrees for the high. This one with a very marginal airmass doesn't seem it could produce such a wide swath of heavy snow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Didn't we have legit arctic air with that one? I think I remember smoking cirrus up here in the DC area and it being like 20 degrees for the high. This one with a very marginal airmass doesn't seem it could produce such a wide swath of heavy snow, I live just outside Lynchburg. Was 40 the day before and the day after. Snowed all day with temps in the mid 20's. We did have perfect timing with a HP sliding through but the air was more dry than cold. Take out the precip and we would have hit 40 that Sunday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GFS blows again, what else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GFS Sucky model. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: GFS blows again, what else is new New England vort is out of the way more. But Plains shortwave is faster and stronger and the storms closed low is weaker. Feels like a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: GFS Sucky model. Next Yea, no December 2018 redux. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Snowing in Alabama at 162 on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Para GFS has a 998 LP just off OBX and slides east from there for this week's threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Sweet Miller A on the GFS through 177. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 @Ji I think you’re on to something...lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: New England vort is out of the way more. But Plains shortwave is faster and stronger and the storms closed low is weaker. Feels like a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation. Who said that if you want snow in the Mid Atlantic everything needs to line up. Sure seems like that with this event, or non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Phases a little too late on the 11th-12th so it's another rainstorm here. I'm sure that's how we fail Jan 12th too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Sweet Miller A on the GFS through 177. It’s a classic MECS. Despite the gfs having a hard time realizing its January. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 LOL, the GFS hates us. Where’s @Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Still think we can get both storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still think we can get both storms 12z Euro is gonna be good. I can feel it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 CMC is a miss south on this weekend and has nothing for next week pretty much ETA: Actually SW portions of the LWX CWA do pretty well on CMC... 2-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The GFS is one big rainstorm on the 16th. But the evolution sounds like complete bullshit to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still think we can get both storms I think we can. Also can miss both. GGEM and para gfs both miss Friday. Para is still sheared for next week, but got a bit more organized. GGEM also took a big step toward a storm next week. Have to see how that run finishes. Lots of shortwaves flying around. Some can help and some can hurt. But we have chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z Euro is gonna be good. I can feel it. I think the next two are gonna surprise. Not necessarily in a good way but I think what really happens is not gonna be what is being shown currently. I expect big changes one way or the other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z Euro is gonna be good. I can feel it. 12z GFS looked like 0z Euro (except for the snow part). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: I think we can. Also can miss both. GGEM and para gfs both miss Friday. Para is still sheared for next week, but got a bit more organized. GGEM also took a big step toward a storm next week. Have to see how that run finishes. Lots of shortwaves flying around. Some can help and some can hurt. But we have chances. Yep. Basically just said the same thing. Lots of moving and likely changeable parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: I think we can. Also can miss both. GGEM and para gfs both miss Friday. Para is still sheared for next week, but got a bit more organized. GGEM also took a big step toward a storm next week. Have to see how that run finishes. Lots of shortwaves flying around. Some can help and some can hurt. But we have chances. It crapped the bed around 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, yoda said: It crapped the bed around 168 Northern stream doesn’t phase so it moves into the lakes and shears the southern stream while also ruining the BL. But it definitely moved toward a larger storm event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Does look like 12z CMC is trying for something good at the end of the run at h5 though IMO... IF the energy in SW Mexico/Baja can be kicked out finally. Look at h5 in that are from 180 till 240... h5 rotates and sits there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GEFS is pretty much a whiff for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Snowchaser said: The storm threat this week reminds a lot of 2018. You've told us that already. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Does look like 12z CMC is trying for something good at the end of the run at h5 though IMO... IF the energy in SW Mexico/Baja can be kicked out finally. Look at h5 in that are from 180 till 240... h5 rotates and sits there lol My takeaway from the Op runs is that we have more chances past the 11/12th. Won’t have any clarity on those for awhile, but we’re certainly in the game. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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