WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Some eye popping analogs to the 12z gfs. But lots of uncertainty still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 and yes it was beautifulI’m counting snow and sleet. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Agreed. Plus we have everyone back for this game. We should smash you. But you won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They didn’t really start to spit out crazy looks for that until like 100-120 hrs out. And there was a lot less complexity to that synoptic setup. i mean while it was a bust it wasnt a complete bust. The fact that it stayed all frozen was a big win for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Some eye popping analogs to the 12z gfs. But lots of uncertainty still. Pretty much every one of our HECS in that set 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Pretty much every one of our HECS in that set Nothing could possibly go wrong with this. The 5 year HECS wait is about to be over. The southeast folks are very angsty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 52 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Agreed, but never doubt backups playing for next years contract lol. I wish we would start Sudfield. I got my 76ers anyway. ralph I’m surprised the ensembles don’t interest you... this is earlier run but that’s a good signal Why would you wanna start sudfield? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Pretty much every one of our HECS in that set I can’t see this as a HECS setup so I was pretty shocked by that analog list. GEFS still quite a bit of spread and mostly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 3-5” deal verbatim. Lots of room there for a bigger outcome IMO. Euro nearly phases the shortwaves but then just kind of shears it out. A little odd. Glad something still showed that storm window after the rest of the 12z suite mostly made a list out of me. If that SW diving through Montana is ANYWHERE else that’s a bigger event. Closer and it likely phases in. Further and it doesn’t dampen and kick it. Get that anywhere but there (wave spacing wise) and that was a bigger deal. But the longwave pattern on the euro from day 5-10 is beautiful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Why would you wanna start sudfield? Eps looks solid for 12th. Because of what Ji said, if we lost we can get as high as a 3rd pick in a really good draft. If we win we can fall to as low as 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I think I should start a thread for this one. It’s a lock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Probably the only thing more worthless than the GFS is the NFC East. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 WB 12Z EPS...lot of good hits the next two weeks, but there is the control with the DMV hole.....so we need an ounce or two of luck. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12z EPS sets up decent western ridge and maintains the stout -NAO. Cross polar flow tries to show up around Jan 16th. This is a signal that has existed for the past 24 hours: 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Pretty much every one of our HECS in that set and 12/26/2010.. which featured big snow to our south and northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Resting them for what? Golf trips? Tanking for draft picks. ....And resting them so they can shovel feet of Miller B snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40westwx said: and 12/26/2010.. which featured big snow to our south and northeast Why does everyone always point this storm out? Am I the only one up here now that experienced that storm while remembering @Ji saying he wanted to kick a puppy he was so mad. I got 17” a couple miles south of Norfolk in that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z EPS sets up decent western ridge and maintains the stout -NAO. Cross polar flow tries to show up around Jan 16th. This is a signal that has existed for the past 24 hours: Not sure I could draw up a better long wave pattern for big snow storms for us. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Not sure I could draw up a better long wave pattern for big snow storms for us. Agreed. Standard caveat is that folks should always have low expectations going into this and be happy with what we get. To see this in a La Nina pattern is pretty amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Why does everyone always point this storm out? Am I the only one up here now that experienced that storm while remembering @Ji saying he wanted to kick a puppy he was so mad. I got 17” a couple miles south of Norfolk in that storm. it was the worst tracking experience of my live.. worse than March 2013. You have to remember it was Christmas and up until 12/24 Baltimore was forecast to get 6-10 inches. It turned out to be snow tv for me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I can’t see this as a HECS setup so I was pretty shocked by that analog list. GEFS still quite a bit of spread and mostly south. I can kind of get why those analogs show up. If you just look at the longwave pattern its almost identical to all those HECS storms. Even the euro has a H5 track pretty similar to some of those big storms. But there are details within the pattern that put a cap on the potential of this. The main limiting factor is the lack of true cold. Most of those storms had a much more favorable antecedent airmass. Without that not only does it create precip type problems...it also means we won't see such an expansive or intense WAA precip shield to the north of the system and it could inhibit the intensity of the system because of less baroclinicity. There are also more SW's flying around that could run interference here then in most of those cases. All that said though I do think this might have more upside then typically could be assumed from the current surface look on guidance. Often things "trend" towards what that guidance suggests the pattern produced historically. But those factors probably cap this at a lower level event then those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not sure I could draw up a better long wave pattern for big snow storms for us. It's a beaut Clark The western ridge is really going ape. It's slightly west of ideal but with that kind of blocking I would prefer west then east. Let thigs "try" to cut with that blocking...if we can inject cold (and with that look we should) I will take my chances with that v possible suppressed OTS solutions we can see if the western ridge is too far east. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's a beaut Clark The western ridge is really going ape. It's slightly west of ideal but with that kind of blocking I would prefer west then east. Let thigs "try" to cut with that blocking...if we can inject cold (and with that look we should) I will take my chances with that v possible suppressed OTS solutions we can see if the western ridge is too far east. I think you'd see s/w ridges move east behind troughs. And those ridges would get into the canonical position over Boise. It's a fabulous look. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's a beaut Clark The western ridge is really going ape. It's slightly west of ideal but with that kind of blocking I would prefer west then east. Let thigs "try" to cut with that blocking...if we can inject cold (and with that look we should) I will take my chances with that v possible suppressed OTS solutions we can see if the western ridge is too far east. So i'm curious would you have been able to write that up WITHOUT the slightly west of ideal part? Asking for Ji 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Pretty clear-cut southern stream SECS/MECS on analogs, which makes sense given the slightly southernly location of that block, as tip mentioned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So i'm curious would you have been able to write that up WITHOUT the slightly west of ideal part? Asking for Ji Just pointing out everything lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Nothing could possibly go wrong with this. The 5 year HECS wait is about to be over. The southeast folks are very angsty We are gonna miss the late week deal to the south, and the next week storm will rain here, while NW of fall line folks get snow. Book it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: We are gonna miss the late week deal to the south, and the next week storm will rain here, while NW of fall line folks get snow. Book it. Did you see my post above with the CIPS analogs? Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: We are gonna miss the late week deal to the south, and the next week storm will rain here, while NW of fall line folks get snow. Book it. We are gonna get two storms. I feel it in my ba..... bones 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 RGEM looks solid 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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