psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 FWIW (not much) euro was close to setting up something big around day 12. It’s dropping a lobe of the weakened displaced TPV down into the Ohio valley and phasing. Look at the h5 loop at the end. Would have been interesting to see that play out another 48 hours just for digital fantasy fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Euro’s pretty close for the 11th. Light snow for far SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: JMA looks like the GGEM It’s a nice setup if the upper low doesn’t totally cutoff and dive down the MS valley like the GFS and Euro do now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 EPS generally supports the op with a southern cutoff solution. But there are a few northern non cutoff members. Just enough to keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I got 90” of rain in 2018, which I just assumed was a once-in-a-lifetime outlier with some assistance from El Nino. But then I got nearly 80” last year from a La Nina. I’m not a climatologist but something isn’t right. The number of rainy days isn’t really increasing but the rain events are just carrying more moisture every time now here. By quite a few metrics, Southern Maryland is already in the very northern range of "humid subtropical" climate. So we're probably ahead of the curve relative to the rest of the DMV. Just an ominous warning that this is what lies in store for most of the MA forum in the next decade.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Neither of those looks anything like the next 15 days on current guidance although the top one is another example of why we DONT want the N pac trough to go away @stormtracker he needs to hear it again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: By quite a few metrics, Southern Maryland is already in the very northern range of "humid subtropical" climate. So we're probably ahead of the curve relative to the rest of the DMV. Just an ominous warning that this is what lies in store for most of the MA forum in the next decade.... Thank you for the mid- to long-range analysis. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 The Euro Control is somewhat farther NW than it's Op brother, but it highlights the marginal temps and what we're dealing with in regards to snow chances before the pattern asserts itself. Not much of accumulation, but interesting that it's a fair bit farther NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 This comment is directed at Europe but it’s pertinent to us also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Do you think the window extends to Fed 1 st ? I vaguely recall you mentioning suppression risks rise after the 20 th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 EPS can’t decide which wave to key on between Jan 8-15. Hits scattered throughout. Definitely a coastal signal not inland. A secondary snow Max (you always get one Max along the apps from upslope) runs along 95 during that period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, frd said: Do you think the window extends to Fed 1 st ? I vaguely recall you mentioning suppression risks rise after the 20 th. I can’t predict whether the blocking runs straight through or weakens then reloads but history strongly suggests the -AO/NAO state hangs around in general for a while. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, IronTy said: By quite a few metrics, Southern Maryland is already in the very northern range of "humid subtropical" climate. So we're probably ahead of the curve relative to the rest of the DMV. Just an ominous warning that this is what lies in store for most of the MA forum in the next decade.... I don’t want to give too much credence to this theory but I’ll say this. I lived in southern Maryland for 6-7 years between 2003 and 2009. I lived in Tall Timber’s, Lexington Park, St. Mary’s City, Ridge and Park Hall. Southern Maryland is muuuch warmer than the DC area in the Spring, Summer, Fall and Winter. The climo is terrible and humid and warm. Late fall is often warm and humid and storms that are a cold 4-6 inches in downtown dc are a touch of sleet to rain. We should prob try to be more aware of our climo and the fact that the climo in Martinsburg is drastically different than St. Mary’s City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 EPS generally supports the op with a southern cutoff solution. But there are a few northern non cutoff members. Just enough to keep hope alive. Sounds like it’s over . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can’t predict whether the blocking runs straight through or weakens then reloads but history strongly suggests the -AO/NAO state hangs around in general for a while. That is typical and makes sense based on the history of prior events. Wondering once we pass Jan 5 th does modeling become a little clearer. Also, this recent post by HM is interesting. @antmasiello Replying to @antmasiello @griteater and @MattHugo81 So what this means is an increasing western hemisphere like response mid month becoming IO late month. That should propagate back to Maritimes for February. 12:31 PM · Jan 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Neither of those looks anything like the next 15 days on current guidance although the top one is another example of why we DONT want the N pac trough to go away @stormtracker he needs to hear it again... Shut up Chuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 @psuhoffman Interesting..... @griteater Replying to @MattHugo81 Have you seen these tropical forcing charts referenced by @antmasiello the other day? Moves into Phase 7-8-1-2 type forcing from mid-Jan on 12:18 PM · Jan 2, 2021·Twitter Web App 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The Pac Jet poleward shift/relaxation is the key. We need the vortex there, but we don't want a one-eyed pig sitting in the GOA with no ridging underneath/downstream. The means are advertising the perfect balance going forward, and a sweet pattern overall. Difficult to imagine a better h5 look. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Sounds like it’s over . Yup you should stop tracking and check back in 2 weeks 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: The Pac Jet poleward shift/relaxation is the key. We need the vortex there, but we don't want a one-eyed pig sitting in the GOA with no ridging underneath/downstream. The means are advertising the perfect balance going forward, and a sweet pattern overall. Difficult to imagine a better h5 look. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 This only goes to Jan. 17th. It's not awesome, but will use it for trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, frd said: This only goes to Jan. 17th. It's not awesome, but will use it for trends. Does that map ever look different? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Does that map ever look different? Looks a lot better than the 0z run over here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Does that map ever look different? It does, for one thing I share the same mean as psu ! To me that is a positive. And as I mentioned, the best potential may be after the 17 th , if so, we are not in range yet. Again, fun to look at, but only relevant when numbers go way up. meaning higher probability of a more significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Hoping HH throws us some encouragement. Signals are not strong enough yet to get too invested through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Today Yesterday That’s why I asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I am not a fan of snowfall maps, esp those generated from op runs, and taken verbatim. They are awful in most cases. However, the ens mean maps- when there are threats in sight- do provide an indication of confidence in the prospects for frozen for a given area, over multiple runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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