BristowWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 4:54 PM, frd said: Seems everything has moved up a bit, also as you stated yesterday , I forget the exact specifics , colder versus warmer outcomes the last few days in the modeling may be the trend. Expand If there was any time for a marginal airmass victory it’s January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 4:44 PM, stormtracker said: CMC gets it done. But. It’s the CMC. Expand But by the metrics it’s been kicking the GFS’ ass since it was upgraded last year. 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Well now. Of course the GFS is the first issue, and then hour 288 is the second, but very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1043 mb High pressure where you usually see a low the past few winters . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 4:26 PM, Amped said: CMC gives us a much better chance next week than the GFS. Expand Why do people keep wanting to get rid of something WE NEED!!!! This is the composite of Baltimore’s 10 snowiest months. look at the gulf of AK!!!! A vortex there promotes ridging into western N America. We want the ridge axis out west near Boise or up in the Yukon if it’s a high lat epo ridge. NOT off the west coast!!!! If you get a ridge off the west coast you get a trough axis too far west and a SE ridge pops!!! Yes if that pac vortex crashes in at times it will flood pac puke but so long as it’s off the coast it’s ok. It’s actually good. It promotes some PNA ridge. I know it doesn’t show well there because you get so many waves crashing in that it washes out the ridging you get in between but all you need is to time up that temporary ridge with a wave in the east. We want all those pac waves crashing in...those end up our storms! No it’s not a cold pattern. But our big snowstorm patterns usually aren’t. The vast majority of our big snowstorms were with patterns that weren’t particularly cold and absent the storm might have even been fairly mild! Lastly some of our worst blocking fails came because there was no trough in the N PAC and so the trough over the US ended up too far west. Yes a HUGE ridge up through Ak can dump arctic air into N America but it’s more often then not going to be directed into the west and any storm that phases and bombs will cut west of us. I am sorry if I seem frustrated but this is like the 10th post seeming to suggest we need to have what is literally our BEST snow pattern mutate into a pattern that historically is colder but normally leads to cutters. What do we want here arctic cold or snow because our perfect pattern is NOT the same for those 2 things! Our coldest outbreaks often do not feature a big snowstorm. Most of our big HECS storms do not feature any true cold. 12 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 4:37 PM, poolz1 said: What a great looking MSLP on the gfs but the actual precip is surprisingly anemic. 995 low in a great spot.... Why is that? Expand Because it’s basically a cutoff low. No northern stream involvement like the GGEM, so it’s just a bowling ball rolling across. This also means no CCB development so a very anemic precip shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 4:36 PM, Amped said: CMC is a decent snowstorm Expand Yes, 80-90% of climo snowfall for the cities in one storm is certainly just “decent”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 4:36 PM, Amped said: CMC is a decent snowstorm Expand If only it was a decent model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 4:37 PM, poolz1 said: What a great looking MSLP on the gfs but the actual precip is surprisingly anemic. 995 low in a great spot.... Why is that? Expand Trough goes negative slightly too late. If we had that northern energy start to drop South a bit sooner or if the shortwave negatively tilted a bit sooner would have been nice. with bowling ball events like this the models are going to have an extremely tough time. I wouldn’t worry one way or another until we get it to 96 hours... better news is both cmc and gfs have really good patterns after this one on today’s runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Para hates the 8th but likes the 11th.....so far i have not seen anything on the models that even get me close to my interest level for the the Mid December Winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 5:17 PM, IronTy said: If only it was a decent model. Expand It’s not the joke it used to be. I know it teased a south solution in mid Dec but it still caught on way before the GFS. And it was the first model to catch that crazy deform band that ended up giving places 40”. Yes it was too far south with it but it depicted that feature for days when other guidance had no clue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 It’s hard to know, but the Ukie could be in a good spot here. Trough is neutral and going negative it seems. Just throwing it out there. It does seem a little cutoff from the flow so idk how north it would go. I can’t decide if it’s good or not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 5:27 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s not the joke it used to be. I know it teased a south solution in mid Dec but it still caught on way before the GFS. And it was the first model to catch that crazy deform band that ended up giving places 40”. Yes it was too far south with it but it depicted that feature for days when other guidance had no clue. Expand Doesn't it compete with GFS for second place with general verification scores? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 5:30 PM, Wentzadelphia said: It’s hard to know, but the Ukie could be in a good spot here. Trough is neutral and going negative it seems. Just throwing it out there. Expand Looks like UKMET fixed last nights euro run. Similar with the southern stream, but keeps the high a lot further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 12z GEFS looks better than 6z for next weekend’s “event”. ETA: The 500mb pattern at the end of the run is gorgeous. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 5:34 PM, cbmclean said: Doesn't it compete with GFS for second place with general verification scores? Expand Ukie and GGEM have been competing for 2nd. More like GFS competes with the JMA for 4th... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 5:34 PM, cbmclean said: Doesn't it compete with GFS for second place with general verification scores? Expand Lately when I’ve seen verification charts it seems to be consistently doing better then the GFS. GFS has really be a train wreck lately. And the CMC has significantly improved since its upgrade. Anecdotally the para gfs seems like a significant upgrade. Perhaps the GFS retakes its place as on of the elite NWP guidance after the upgrade but honestly lately I’ve gotten to the point where I barely pay it any attention anymore. It gets about the same weight as the JMA or ICON. ETA: I see Wxusaf ninja’d me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 5:11 PM, WxUSAF said: Because it’s basically a cutoff low. No northern stream involvement like the GGEM, so it’s just a bowling ball rolling across. This also means no CCB development so a very anemic precip shield. Expand Who has “anemic”on their This Winter Sucks bingo card? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 5:02 PM, WxUSAF said: But by the metrics it’s been kicking the GFS’ ass since it was upgraded last year. Expand You have a point. And cmc has been kinda consistent with this threat. Last night’s Euro spooked me a little. If we get that on our side, screw the GFS frustration. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 5:27 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s not the joke it used to be. I know it teased a south solution in mid Dec but it still caught on way before the GFS. And it was the first model to catch that crazy deform band that ended up giving places 40”. Yes it was too far south with it but it depicted that feature for days when other guidance had no clue. Expand Yeah it had us with like 12" snow and we ended up with 2" rain. I'll take the CMC more seriously when it scores a coup someday. $10 is better than $5 but it's still nothing to brag about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 -NAO and it's 60 degrees lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Yeah, Euro about to screw us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Euro is trending more and more cutoff. We need some NS phasing. A totally cutoff solution can’t work out. The flow is too suppressive and there isn’t enough antecedent cold for that kind of evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Who was it that wanted to see suppression? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 It's right where we want it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 A silver lining as the cold rain storm hits the fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Euro can't decide whether it wants to phase or not. Odd looking disjointed split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:23 PM, IronTy said: Yeah it had us with like 12" snow and we ended up with 2" rain. I'll take the CMC more seriously when it scores a coup someday. $10 is better than $5 but it's still nothing to brag about. Expand It still did better then the GFS. Euro was by far the best global but the CMC was second. GFS was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Well @Amped will love the day 16 GEPS that is a great look if you want brutal cold and dry. It’s not nearly as good a look for a big snowstorm though. The SE ridge is just starting to pop there...it’s likely to get worse in future times as the trough pulls west some. Look at SLP anomalies, it’s a miller b pattern. The STJ is totally cut off there. That’s a look where we are cold and wait through day and day of bone dry model runs frustratedly saying “where did all the storms go now that we got the cold”. Sound familiar? That is a cold dry look there. It’s not the worst, we could luck into something. It’s better then anything we had last year. But it’s not nearly as good a big snowstorm look. I guess if you want the pond in your yard to freeze over it’s drool worthy! And I am NOT even saying that’s coming. It’s on an island with that look. I’m just pointing out if we want a big snowstorm that isn’t the look we want. If you just want really cold and maybe some minor nickel and dime stuff I guess that’s the look you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 JMA looks like the GGEM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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