CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: That’s pretty pathetic. We saw that last year on eps . That's essentially a 4-day mean, for a period beginning in 7 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, IceCAPS said: Why is that? In simple terms, what makes this a reality most of the time? And I apologise for what I'm sure is a dumb question most here don't need to ask Models are constantly being upgraded/improved for overall accuracy, which results in less accumulated error out in time. There have been major improvements in the 4-7 day range vs say 10 or 20 years ago. So in many cases the error isn't "off" as much as it used to be, which means less adjustment as we get closer to game time. That said, different patterns can be more or less likely to shift (the super-gurus here track the known biases of the models and can tell us generally whether the scenario is one that is likely to adjust one way or another). Edit -- and ninjaed by @CAPE.....with the specific pattern analysis.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 12z was a bump up for east of 81 for the day 7/8 timeframe that I saw . I meant to say the 8th. There might be a half inch up your way prior to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Maybe some indications the intense plunge in the AO can set-up a discharge of arctic air moving SSE across Eastern Canada by mid month and beyond. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 If first you dont succeed...... Starting D7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: If first you dont succeed...... Starting D7 Love seeing the active STJ! (assuming that's what I'm looking at, lol) Now that's a bit atypical for a nina right? (If so, it's refreshing to have a something be a GOOD atypical for a change!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: If first you dont succeed...... Starting D7 That’s very nice to see. @Wentzadelphia posted EPS snow mean through like D13 elsewhere and it was very respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 39 minutes ago, Ji said: That’s pretty pathetic. We saw that last year on eps . Here, this is better, the full 15 days! This is the best that the EPS has looked since before the December event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Of all the posts I have seen that one made me smile. Very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 WB EPS prob. Of 6 inches or more, all of this is after Day 7....so we will see how this trends over the upcoming work week... about 25-30% of these solutions would make many happy. If 2009-10 is the bar that makes you happy you live in the wrong latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Of all the posts I have seen that one made me smile. Very nice Ah, a GOOD head fake for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 45 minutes ago, Ji said: That’s pretty pathetic. We saw that last year on eps . Somewhere to consider.... Aomori City Well, you can build plenty of them in Aomori City in Japan, which is the snowiest city in the world. Aomori City receives a whopping 26 feet of snowfall on an average every year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Love seeing the active STJ! (assuming that's what I'm looking at, lol) Now that's a bit atypical for a nina right? (If so, it's refreshing to have a something be a GOOD atypical for a change!) It looks to me that there is STJ influence but the systems originate in the NPAC. Someone can correct me if I am wrong here... My skills lack when it comes to looking above 500mb...adding a little bit of knowledge every year though! By the time I am 80 I should be able to hang with the best of them! lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That was a curiosity for me as well. I realize that it’s my lack of knowledge here, but it’s always puzzled me how a weak piece of energy can produce a decent low pressure system and sometimes a strong piece produces nothing. 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Look at all levels of the atmosphere, not just h5. In this case, look further upstairs at the strength/location of the upper jet, around 250 mb. LF quadrant = lift. That...and sometimes it’s the surface too. Lack of baroclinicity and or moisture. 31 minutes ago, IceCAPS said: Why is that? In simple terms, what makes this a reality most of the time? And I apologise for what I'm sure is a dumb question most here don't need to ask Two reasons seem to work in tandem. Models tend to error SLIGHTLY to to the south on the track of key features in the medium range. It’s not what it once was but it’s still an observable slight error more often then not. In the short range I’ve noticed nwp often underestimates the expanse of moisture transport on the NW fringe of comma head of a deep mature system. This accounts for a lot of that last second north trend with the northern edge of heavy snow. It also can be huge because somewhere near that NW cutoff is where you often get that convergence of best rates and lift. Often the deform sets up in that area where the best moisture transport from the CCB meets resistance from the confluence and the DCB creating enhanced instability and lift in an area getting very high ratios. Then it cuts off QUICK NE of that zone due to subsidence outside that band. So shifting this zone north 50 miles can take places out of predicted snow completely into a 20” snowstorm at the last minute with these intense east coast systems. 26 minutes ago, frd said: I actually agree, totals seem near climo, and does not match the potential of the pattern. Then again, who really knows, and besides the best potential may be after this time period. Anyone seriously considering this as the most likely outcome needs to reassess. However, if the mean hits 5 or more inches then it has real statistical importance and I would get more hopeful of seeing a significant snow event. Except Ji is comparing 2 week means last year to essentially a 4 day mean now. It’s not an amazing look but 2-3” spread over 4 days is a bigger signal then 2-3” over 15 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 @leesburg 04 y’all don’t understand @Ji. He is here for a specific purpose. He is all of our inner snow weenie souls unfiltered and unrestrained. We all feel it we just add a pinch of logic and perspective before commenting. He lets it out so we don’t have too! 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 46 minutes ago, frd said: I actually agree, totals seem near climo, and does not match the potential of the pattern. Then again, who really knows, and besides the best potential may be after this time period. Anyone seriously considering this as the most likely outcome needs to reassess. However, if the mean hits 5 or more inches then it has real statistical importance and I would get more hopeful of seeing a significant snow event. That map was the mean for the 8th to the 12th. That ain't bad for 7 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @leesburg 04 y’all don’t understand @Ji. He is here for a specific purpose. He is all of our inner snow weenie souls unfiltered and unrestrained. We all feel it we just add a pinch of logic and perspective before commenting. He lets it out so we don’t have too! Yes. He is the fart that is released at the staff meeting...the one that most of us hold in because we are sitting next to the girl from accounting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here, this is better, the full 15 days! This is the best that the EPS has looked since before the December event! you couldn't make a better climo map if you tried.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I have a relative coming from Colombia. She has never seen snow in her life. She’s here until Feb 11 (following Rona protocols.). I all but guaranteed her that she’d see snow. 2 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: She’ll love West Virginia. May just have to travel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have a relative coming from Colombia. She has never seen snow in her life. She’s here until Feb 11 (following Rona protocols.). I all but guaranteed her that she’d see snow. Haven't you heard the pattern is starting to break down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have a relative coming from Colombia. She has never seen snow in her life. She’s here until Feb 11 (following Rona protocols.). I all but guaranteed her that she’d see snow. My wife and I went to Cartagena in Feb last year...right before the shit hit the fan. Beautiful country....great people/culture/food. We loved it so much we discusses another trip there this winter. Obviously that idea got put on the back burner quick. Not gonna happen anytime in the near future but no doubt we will go back at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 This guy here is the biggest warmista on Twitter . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have a relative coming from Colombia. She has never seen snow in her life. She’s here until Feb 11 (following Rona protocols.). I all but guaranteed her that she’d see snow. Haha - get ready Stormtracker. The potential experience for you and your relative reminds me of the Brazilian foreign exchange student we had stay with my family 6 months when I was in HS in Ohio. When he arrived in Feb of 77 the ONLY word of English he spoke was "COLD". The look in his eyes when he got off the plane spoke of sheer terror as he'd never contemplated such a hellish cold environment could exist. The extent of his winter clothes was a light weight sweater, so our first trip was to the local mall to buy him a winter coat. (He'd never seen a mall either). He stuck it out, but I'll never forget the look on his face when he got off the plane. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Woof? Woof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 This guy here is the biggest warmista on Twitter .Yeah it’s annoying. Nothing worse than than weather guys rooting for abnormal warmth in January and February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Yeah it’s annoying. Nothing worse than than weather guys rooting for abnormal warmth in January and February. At least he can be crying right now...that is what I like about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Woof? Woof BEST PATTERN since 1996 WOOF 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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