Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: If the block is legit, we should be seeing some suppressed outcomes across ens guidance. I cant imagine the upgraded GFS/GEFS would be much different. Even with a block you need to time correctly placed confluence and ULLs in se Canada. Especially since this would potentially be the first wave and won’t have the prime air mass yet. Compare the OP progression between the gfs and euro and you’ll see why they are each doing what they are doing. Gfs sucks though and will cave in a run or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: If the block is legit, we should be seeing some suppressed outcomes across ens guidance. I cant imagine the upgraded GFS/GEFS would be much different. I think the suppressed storms are more likely in the Jan 15-20 period. Still not in range. Let’s hope we have snow OTG by then and we can relax and enjoy the ride. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 If the strong blocking continues to be realised, you can bet models will trend south with systems. GFS looks to be still GooFuS at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I think the suppressed storms are more likely in the Jan 15-20 period. Still not in range. Let’s hope we have snow OTG by then and we can relax and enjoy the ride. Fringed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I think the suppressed storms are more likely in the Jan 15-20 period. Still not in range. Let’s hope we have snow OTG by then and we can relax and enjoy the ride. I was mostly questioning his perception of why seeing no signs of suppression is a good thing on ensemble runs at this range, regardless of model, given the storm tracks have all been to our NW. lol people need to chill. CAPE IS NOT TRYING TO INDUCE PANIC HERE. ALL IS WELL. THINGS LOOK GOOD!!!! Damn I went all DT there. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Fringed?lol we went even get fringed. Richmond gets fringed . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Ji said: lol we went even get fringed. Richmond gets fringed . Winston Salem is the place to be 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 OZ WB 12K NAM shifted freezing rain SE compared to 18Z for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: I was mostly questioning his perception of why seeing no signs of suppression is a good thing on ensemble runs at this range, regardless of model, given the storm tracks have all been to our NW. lol people need to chill. CAPE IS NOT TRYING TO INDUCE PANIC HERE. ALL IS WELL. THINGS LOOK GOOD!!!! Damn I went all DT there. We’ve had a lot of storm tracks to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: We’ve had a lot of storm tracks to our south. Ok. Thanks for the correction. I will try to do better at articulating my point in the future. Clearly I failed, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Winston Salem is the place to be Eric Webb knows this is his pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 OZ WB 12K NAM shifted freezing rain SE compared to 18Z for tomorrow. Gee can’t wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Eric Webb knows this is his pattern . Isn't it unusual for him to be bullish? Thought he was a chronic Deb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 You can feel the fear in Ji's words 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Relax and enjoy the ride? No way. If we get a HECS, I’ll be looking for a BECS as a follow up storm. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 This is the most hyped up pattern in the least hyped up winter ever . 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 32 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You can feel the fear in Ji's words Fear is the path to the dark side 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 What happens if we get zero snow with this hyped up best since 1996 pattern setting up? @Ji would March up to the peak of Mount Everest and jump without a parachute, @leesburg 04 would be in a helicopter snapping photos of the Jump, @psuhoffman would be dusting off BC era weather archives trying to explain why we suck, and Bob Chill would say, “I tried to tell you guys...” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Winston Salem is the place to be I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Much better confluence setup on 00z gfs at 99 hours so far. Should end up decreasing the ridge out ahead of any system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Isn't it unusual for him to be bullish? Thought he was a chronic Deb. Yea Eric Webb isn't a big snow weenie. If he starts getting interested then so do I. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yep..and Eps started the party off right at 144 hr 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Much better confluence setup on 00z gfs at 99 hours so far. Should end up decreasing the ridge out ahead of any system Question for anyone. How does confluence impact geopotential height? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Nice freezing weather in Russia! happy new year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 CMC looks really good at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Nice freezing weather in Russia! happy new year everyone! Sweet mercy...are you over there? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Escaped east but I liked the run Yeah gfs tried great trend. CMC so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 thanks again for the enlightening discussion and optimism folks. I expect to be let down but least we have hope this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 CMC is a hit. nothing crazy but awesome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: CMC is a hit. nothing crazy but awesome! That 2mT looks more like a hit of cold rain tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Beautiful H5 track On cmc. Giddy up ladies and gents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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