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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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@CAPE I know it gets super extra weenie at the end but this is only 8 days away and we would have killed for this look at any point the past few years.  
755E72F5-9CDC-4E33-882C-DD2BB49397CA.thumb.png.e22f82f5a97f12aa4c91550fc8ba4810.png

This has been incredibly consistent and now it’s moving into the “it’s really happening” range.  That collapse of the TPV in December plus the way two attempts to reconsolidate the TPV near Greenland were immediately deflected along with the persistent N Atlantic Ridge had me more confident then normal in the fantasy land block evolution but it’s still reinsuring to see it moving into the medium range now. 

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8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That setup on the EPS is the kind of look you get with one storm happening and Ji looking for the next one only 5 days down the road. 

Why not the pattern matches 2010 when we did get 4 significant snows in 12 days. Obviously that was a lucky maxing of potential but it’s not impossible. 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm not expecting consistent double digit snowfalls, but this should at least get almost everyone to climo if the pattern holds. Hell, after the past two winters climo will feel great.

Dude I just want to see snow covering the ground a time or 2, without immediately getting washed away by rain. My bar is sooo low.

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Weenie panel of the run. :weenie:

1611273600-KMgNtGh6fns.png

I would prefer that N pac trough tucked in closer to AK to get more ridge into the southwest but I’m being really picky. But that look there “could” be a miller B pattern.  Please don’t think I’m saying it’s not good just a matter of good v very good here. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I would prefer that N pac trough tucked in closer to AK to get more ridge into the southwest but I’m being really picky. But that look there “could” be a miller B pattern.  Please don’t think I’m saying it’s not good just a matter of good v very good here. 

Well that's the trend beyond mid month. Still a damn good look for a super LR mean. We can really be Debs and bring up the SE ridge that pops towards Feb. :yikes:

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would prefer that N pac trough tucked in closer to AK to get more ridge into the southwest but I’m being really picky. But that look there “could” be a miller B pattern.  Please don’t think I’m saying it’s not good just a matter of good v very good here. 

You’re the Ji of upper level patterns

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Why not the pattern matches 2010 when we did get 4 significant snows in 12 days. Obviously that was a lucky maxing of potential but it’s not impossible. 

That's for sure. Part of my snark was in reference to that map resembling our epic run in 2010. Obviously, capitalizing on every single wave phase we had is unlikely, but the recipe for multiple storms and/or a big Kahuna is raised pretty significantly with the addition of blocking and greater height falls focused off the Mid Atlantic coast with lower height averages over Dixie and the lower Tennessee Valley. The fact it's inside 10 days to the pattern evolution is the best part of this if you're a winter weenie in the east coast ^_^

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@CAPE I’m starting to think that central pac Nina look the Uber long range guidance wants to go to around week 4-5 is just a model figment anyways. It’s been doing that since November weeks 4-5 and Keeps pushing it back. It’s forever stuck at 4 weeks away.  Imo it’s the same phenomenon as in 2019 when the NWP continuously wanted to morph the pattern to a canonical modoki nino look as it was losing the forcing signal for whatever was running interference and was relying too heavily on enso at range. It’s been doing it this year (only the opposite way) and I am getting confident it’s not real.  And even if it is we get 2 weeks of damn good before that. The good news is no guidance even hints at the NAM state flipping positive.  

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11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You’re the Ji of upper level patterns

I didn’t mean it that way. We have the look I’m describing day 10-20 on guidance. After that it retrogrades the pac pattern a bit. I’m saying I prefer the look day 10-20 over 20-30...and it’s still good just not AS good. And it might be wrong as long range has been going that way falsely for a month now. 

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