psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 This is NOT the same as waiting for a late save in March. Yea it sucks to wait until later January but honestly this is our climo MO. And frankly if we want to pick the absolute best time to maximize the probabilities of taking advantage of blocking and cold late January into February is it! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 7:43 PM, psuhoffman said: Expand Great 50s through February 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 7:54 PM, leesburg 04 said: Great 50s through February Expand 1987 was an analog showing up a lot in the ncep list and the one big snow we got in Feb that year was 50 the day before and after...but it snowed 12-20” with temps around 33-34 degrees in between lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 @CAPE @WxUSAF EPS is a carbon copy of the GEFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 7:57 PM, psuhoffman said: 1987 was an analog showing up a lot in the ncep list and the one big snow we got in Feb that year was 50 the day before and after...but it snowed 12-20” with temps around 33-34 degrees in between lol. Expand 87 had one week of winter basically and those back to back bombs...I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 6:49 PM, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF this is about as big a “real” ridge signature as I think you will ever see on a day 16 prog. Even a hint of a 50/50 sig. Expand Yeah that’s a very nice look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:06 PM, leesburg 04 said: 87 had one week of winter basically and those back to back bombs...I could be wrong Expand Was a little more then that. But a lot of the snow was warm storms that melted fast. There was a warm storm earlier in Jan that dropped like 3-6” NW. there was one week of cold in late January with 2 storms bookending it. The first was better NW and the second SE of 95. Then a MECS 10-20” storm across the area in Feb. but it was a warm storm. 50s before and after and temps above freezing during the snow. I was near Philly and we got about 14” but the next day had to drive to Harpers Ferry for a baptism. We left early morning with a foot of snow and by the time we got to MD the snow was pretty much all gone. Harpers Ferry had 18” but when we got there mid afternoon nothing was left but piles. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Agree, if we’re going to get things lined up in our favor, the last 10 days of January and first 10 days of February is an ideal time for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:13 PM, psuhoffman said: Was a little more then that. But a lot of the snow was warm storms that melted fast. There was a warm storm earlier in Jan that dropped like 3-6” NW. there was one week of cold in late January with 2 storms bookending it. The first was better NW and the second SE of 95. Then a MECS 10-20” storm across the area in Feb. but it was a warm storm. 50s before and after and temps above freezing during the snow. I was near Philly and we got about 14” but the next day had to drive to Harpers Ferry for a baptism. We left early morning with a foot of snow and by the time we got to MD the snow was pretty much all gone. Harpers Ferry had 18” but when we got there mid afternoon nothing was left but piles. Lol Expand Sounds about as appealing as stepping in a steaming pile of dog poo barefoot. Where do I sign 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:13 PM, psuhoffman said: Was a little more then that. But a lot of the snow was warm storms that melted fast. There was a warm storm earlier in Jan that dropped like 3-6” NW. there was one week of cold in late January with 2 storms bookending it. The first was better NW and the second SE of 95. Then a MECS 10-20” storm across the area in Feb. but it was a warm storm. 50s before and after and temps above freezing during the snow. I was near Philly and we got about 14” but the next day had to drive to Harpers Ferry for a baptism. We left early morning with a foot of snow and by the time we got to MD the snow was pretty much all gone. Harpers Ferry had 18” but when we got there mid afternoon nothing was left but piles. Lol Expand @WinterWxLouvr would not be happy with the temps! BTW, do you remember the April 1987 Southwest VA snowstorm? I was living in Wise VA and we had over 2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:21 PM, leesburg 04 said: Sounds about as appealing as stepping in a steaming pile of dog poo barefoot. Where do I sign Expand I knew that would be up your alley 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 7:51 PM, psuhoffman said: This is NOT the same as waiting for a late save in March. Yea it sucks to wait until later January but honestly this is our climo MO. And frankly if we want to pick the absolute best time to maximize the probabilities of taking advantage of blocking and cold late January into February is it! Expand Yeah seriously though...I'm not sure why folks are fretting over having to wait until mid/late January...that IS our primo. Just take a look at this list of our biggest storms, and when they occured: (courtesy of the Baltimore Sun) Notice that of the top 20, only 3 occurred before the middle of January. The rest occurred after that! 1. Feb. 15-18, 2003: 28.2 inches 2. Jan. 27-29, 1922: 26.5 inches 3. Feb. 5-6, 2010: 24.8 inches* 4. Feb. 11, 1983: 22.8 inches 5. Jan. 7-8, 1996: 22.5 inches 6. Mar. 29-30, 1942: 22.0 inches 7. Feb. 11-14, 1899: 21.4 inches 8. Dec. 18-19, 2009: 21.1 inches 9. Feb. 18-19, 1979: 20.0 inches 10. Feb. 9-10, 2010: 19.5 inches 11. Mar. 15-18, 1892: 16.0 inches 12. Feb. 15, 1958: 15.5 inches 13. Jan. 25, 2000: 14.9 inches 14. Dec. 11-12, 1960: 14.1 inches 15. Feb. 11-12, 2006: 13.1 inches 16. Mar. 5-7, 1962: 13.0 inches 17: Jan. 22, 1987: 12.3 inches 18. Jan. 30-31, 1966: 12.1 inches 19. Feb. 16-18, 1900: 12.0 inches 20. Mar. 13-14, 1993: 11.9 inches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 EPS with a bit of a signal for a coastal on the 11th. Long ways out but it’s been showing up for a few runs. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:22 PM, Grothar of Herndon said: @WinterWxLouvr would not be happy with the temps! BTW, do you remember the April 1987 Southwest VA snowstorm? I was living in Wise VA and we had over 2' Expand Oh yes. I remember that one well. Basically snowed from Thursday evening through Sunday afternoon. I think it snowed 31” but there was never more than about 18” on the ground where I lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:33 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah seriously though...I'm not sure why folks are fretting over having to wait until mid/late January...that IS our primo. Just take a look at this list of our biggest storms, and when they occured: (courtesy of the Baltimore Sun) Notice that of the top 20, only 3 occurred before the middle of January. The rest occurred after that! 1. Feb. 15-18, 2003: 28.2 inches 2. Jan. 27-29, 1922: 26.5 inches 3. Feb. 5-6, 2010: 24.8 inches* 4. Feb. 11, 1983: 22.8 inches 5. Jan. 7-8, 1996: 22.5 inches 6. Mar. 29-30, 1942: 22.0 inches 7. Feb. 11-14, 1899: 21.4 inches 8. Dec. 18-19, 2009: 21.1 inches 9. Feb. 18-19, 1979: 20.0 inches 10. Feb. 9-10, 2010: 19.5 inches 11. Mar. 15-18, 1892: 16.0 inches 12. Feb. 15, 1958: 15.5 inches 13. Jan. 25, 2000: 14.9 inches 14. Dec. 11-12, 1960: 14.1 inches 15. Feb. 11-12, 2006: 13.1 inches 16. Mar. 5-7, 1962: 13.0 inches 17: Jan. 22, 1987: 12.3 inches 18. Jan. 30-31, 1966: 12.1 inches 19. Feb. 16-18, 1900: 12.0 inches 20. Mar. 13-14, 1993: 11.9 inches Expand You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list. I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:52 PM, psuhoffman said: You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list. I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. When is our last good jan 1-15 event? I think 13-14 had a 9 inch mecs followed by near zero temps. That was amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:57 PM, Ji said: On 12/29/2020 at 8:52 PM, psuhoffman said: You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list. I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. Expand When is our last good jan 1-15 event? I think 13-14 had a 9 inch mecs followed by near zero temps. That was amazing Expand The beltway got around a foot in 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I guess one positive right now is that this is usually the time CAPE and PSU are telling us about the January thaw showing up on the models. At least now the talk is about the possible late January good pattern 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:57 PM, Ji said: On 12/29/2020 at 8:52 PM, psuhoffman said: You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list. I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. Expand When is our last good jan 1-15 event? I think 13-14 had a 9 inch mecs followed by near zero temps. That was amazing Expand The 9” one was around the 20th. There was a 4-6” event in early Jan followed by sub zero. Then it warmed to 50 the next day and melted. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:59 PM, leesburg 04 said: I guess one positive right now is that this is usually the time CAPE and PSU are telling us about the January thaw showing up on the models. At least now the talk is about the possible late January good pattern Expand Don’t worry by the time it gets here we will be worried about the thaw showing on the long range. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:02 PM, psuhoffman said: Don’t worry by the time it gets here we will be worried about the thaw showing on the long range. Expand And sun angle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:13 PM, psuhoffman said: Was a little more then that. But a lot of the snow was warm storms that melted fast. There was a warm storm earlier in Jan that dropped like 3-6” NW. there was one week of cold in late January with 2 storms bookending it. The first was better NW and the second SE of 95. Then a MECS 10-20” storm across the area in Feb. but it was a warm storm. 50s before and after and temps above freezing during the snow. I was near Philly and we got about 14” but the next day had to drive to Harpers Ferry for a baptism. We left early morning with a foot of snow and by the time we got to MD the snow was pretty much all gone. Harpers Ferry had 18” but when we got there mid afternoon nothing was left but piles. Lol Expand I'll take winter 87 repeat.... 33.8 in Jan and 16.6 in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:59 PM, jaydreb said: The beltway got around a foot in 2019. Expand The metro area did better than here for that 1/12-13 event in 2019. I finished with just under 7". I think Baltimore got shafted though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 8:52 PM, psuhoffman said: You can add Jan 22 2016 to that list. I’m well aware our snow climo is skewed to the back half of winter, to the consternation of many on here. Expand Ah yes...I think the article I copy and pasted from was from before 2016, lol And yeah I know YOU know...posting more for others here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:17 PM, WVclimo said: The metro area did better than here for that 1/12-13 event in 2019. I finished with just under 7". I think Baltimore got shafted though. Expand We sure did...which is why I don't even count it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:17 PM, WVclimo said: The metro area did better than here for that 1/12-13 event in 2019. I finished with just under 7". I think Baltimore got shafted though. Expand ji got a foot but of course he already forgot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:32 PM, leesburg 04 said: ji got a foot but of course he already forgotForgot about that one. Mainly because the rest of winter was supposed to be promising per weeklies and it failed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:42 PM, Ji said: On 12/29/2020 at 9:32 PM, leesburg 04 said: ji got a foot but of course he already forgot Expand Forgot about that one. Mainly because the rest of winter was supposed to be promising per weeklies and it failed Expand You ended up just shy of 30" although I think you rounded up anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 9:42 PM, Ji said: On 12/29/2020 at 9:32 PM, leesburg 04 said: ji got a foot but of course he already forgot Expand Forgot about that one. Mainly because the rest of winter was supposed to be promising per weeklies and it failed Expand Let me ask you something...are you ever actually thankful when you do get snow? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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