aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: That's some serious nerdisms there 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: The new edition of the Euro weeklies think the west based -NAO is gonna be around awhile. What is that I see in the EPO region?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's some serious nerdisms there The nerds can tell us when its happening, since we just cant know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What is that I see in the EPO region?? The EPO? 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The EPO? Thanks smart-arse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What is that I see in the EPO region?? Neutral? More of a -WPO, but I will take that all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 i wonder if we are failing in our -NAO pattern because dont have a -NAO 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i wonder if we are failing in our -NAO pattern because dont have a -NAO Be patient lad. It ain't happening in the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Isn't this the time for someone to tell us that an HA storm is not in the cards because the NAO rise from -3.5 to -2 between the 5th and 12th is too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 55 minutes ago, Ji said: i wonder if we are failing in our -NAO pattern because dont have a -NAO Heights were high near Azores as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 here was the look in 2016 before our big storm: This is what the GFS keeps advertising in the fantasy range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 59 minutes ago, Ji said: i wonder if we are failing in our -NAO pattern because dont have a -NAO yeah we dont.. and I looked back at the GFS and Euro and it looked like a few weeks ago we were forecasted to go negative by now. Its elusive to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: But are we not still closer to it now than we have been the last 6-7 winters? look at the post above with the graphic from 2016. That was a pretty classic look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: The new edition of the Euro weeklies think the west based -NAO is gonna be around awhile. The last couple times a SSW obliterated the SPV when the TPV was already weak the ensuing blocking regime lasted quite a while. Even in 2018 when the SSW coupled it set off a -NAO for the next 2 months. Although that was much later so not a great comp. Still I doubt the TPV would recover quickly from this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Apparently euro weeklies went straight weenie party today after being very Nina-ish up to this point the last 2 months. 11 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Apparently euro weeklies went straight weenie party today after being very Nina-ish up to this point the last 2 months. The only "not great" h5 panel I saw was the very end of the run, around Feb 12, and we know what that's worth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 30 minutes ago, 40westwx said: here was the look in 2016 before our big storm: This is what the GFS keeps advertising in the fantasy range: I may be just stating the very point you are trying to make, but the heights off the southeast coast in the second image are just too high. Any low that amplifies at all is gonna run well inland in that setup and then just fizzle out and scoot east when it hits that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: The only "not great" h5 panel I saw was the very end of the run, around Feb 12, and we know that that's worth. Yeah, same as what it might show for Jan 12 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, same as what it might show for Jan 12 LOL Pretty much lol. But if it looks good, we weenie! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty much lol. But if it looks good, we weenie! feb 12 is the 1st day of sun angle season anyway....so it dont matter. winter over at that point 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, Ji said: feb 12 is the 1st day of sun angle season anyway....so it dont matter. winter over at that point Except many of our epic snowstorms have occurred beyond that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 My favorite panel from the latest Weeklies. Hard to get a better h5 look than this. Very Nino-ish. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: The only "not great" h5 panel I saw was the very end of the run, around Feb 12, and we know that that's worth. Nice. That week 3 map you posted is fantastic. I think week 3 has some skill per the metrics, although anything beyond that is pretty useless I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Nice. That week 3 map you posted is fantastic. I think week 3 has some skill per the metrics, although anything beyond that is pretty useless I think. Yeah I think 2, maybe 3 weeks out from initialization gives a reasonable idea of where the pattern is heading. Hopefully it ends up close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Euro Weekly control manages to have this 30 day H5 look...and not give DC even 1" of snow! LOL I only looked because despite a "weenie" H5 look the snow mean was pretty blah...about 6" in DC and only 10" up here...thats actually below climo snowfall for that 46 day period. So I looked at the control for a clue...I guess if there are runs that manage not to give us ANY freaking snow with that look...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Euro Weekly control manages to have this 30 day H5 look...and not give DC even 1" of snow! LOL I only looked because despite a "weenie" H5 look the snow mean was pretty blah...about 6" in DC and only 10" up here...thats actually below climo snowfall for that 46 day period. So I looked at the control for a clue...I guess if there are runs that manage not to give us ANY freaking snow with that look...lol Thanks Deb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Before anyone jumps off a bridge I do NOT take snowfall maps at range seriously....just was posting that for a LOL more then anything else. Of course...come March if we had a west based NAO block all winter and DC doesn't get ANY snow...we can bump this post. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Before anyone jumps off a bridge I do NOT take snowfall maps at range seriously....just was posting that for a LOL more then anything else. Of course...come March if we had a west based NAO block all winter and DC doesn't get ANY snow...we can bump this post. Wonder if that’s ever happened. Sustained west based NAO block all winter and no snow. Wouldn’t that be a kick in the pillbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Thanks Deb. Apparently that beautiful H5 look on the week 3 map gives us a +8F temp departure!? lol that’s pretty amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Thanks Deb. It's worth noting...the snowfall does NOT align with the H5 look at all...frankly the pattern to the snowfall mean matches a +NAO look more with the greatest +Snowfall anomalies from the upper midwest through Ontario and Quebec. Those are places that usually are warm (for them) and dry in a west based NAO blocking pattern. That said...I will take the H5 look over anything else 100 times out of 100 on a long range prog. Guidance is way more likely to get the large scale longwave pattern correct then any of the synoptic and meso scale details that dictate snowfall. But again...doesn't mean its not worth pointing out the oddity. Let's hope its just an oddity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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