SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Doesn't look like much cold air around for a potential follow up wave..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Ji in 3....2....1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 WB 12Z EURO for Sunday...pattern still favors interior PA and central NY. Hopefully, will shift south as we go through January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Great thread. Worth a read. Way more to.it than what I posted. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello · 1h A tradition of sorts: to take the ECMWF zonal wind anomaly charts during a SSW and show the zero-line descend through the stratosphere. GIF @antmasiello · 1h **correction, that is not a zonal wind anomaly but mean zonal @antmasiello Replying to @antmasiello the mean zero-wind line determines the level at which future waves break (RW can only upwell through westerly flow) and deposit their easterly momentum. The descent in this one seems quicker than usual, but I do not have numbers to back that up. 12:06 PM · Dec 28, 2020·Twitter Web App @webberweather · 1h Replying to @antmasiello JRA-55 SSWE compendium composite shows the zonal wind reversal propagating from the stratopause to ~20mb in a matter of 3 days (ish) during major sudden warming. Looks about right to me @antmasiello · 1h thanks for the composite, and your conclusion is probably right, but that doesn't show the zero-line reaching the 50-100mb depth, probably from event smoothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro much colder for the ice threat late week . Caving to the Para for Sundays threat . Great to be tracking multiple threats . I've been busy today but this place is deado. It actually even turns here over to snow Thursday morning (“Wave 1”) and has a legit freezing rain event on NYD for “Wave 2”. Trending way more interesting for the far NW/mountain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO for Sunday...pattern still favors interior PA and central NY. Hopefully, will shift south as we go through January. What other year do we get a track like that during prime climo and no snow even in the highlands? Oh right....last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 12z Euro by precip type...yesterday’s 12z had 100% rain as the precip type for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 New GFS para takes the low offshore from 1003mb to 976mb in 12hrs. That stretches plausibility a bit for east coast cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What other year do we get a track like that during prime climo and no snow even in the highlands? Oh right....last year. Is the euro hi res that much different of a model that it would spit this out? Same time stamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 WB 12Z EPS...throws us all a bone. One Member likes Sunday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, Amped said: New GFS para takes the low offshore from 1003mb to 976mb in 12hrs. That stretches plausibility a bit for east coast cyclogenesis. Where are you getting a new Para GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Where are you getting a new Para GFS? pivotal weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Some day models will abandon their microscopic approach to day 5+ and take a broader approach to things. Some wave 500 miles off the Pacific coast is Impossible to predict where it will end up for the east. If you don’t think so then how do we time after time after time end up with projections that show a low off SC coast, then over DC that then actually ends up in western Great Lakes? ALL the time and more often then not. The ensembles themselves show Exactly what models are really all about-show 32 solutions one of which may hit. To me the Only fun in weather for many years now is making obs during the event. The ups and downs and twists and turns of model watching is bullshit for this so called science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is the euro hi res that much different of a model that it would spit this out? Same time stamp Are you sure that’s the Euro Hi Res? The image says ‘GFS’ next to the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 All 3 ensembles look the same and pretty good by day 15. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Ice threat for western areas seems to be increasing ... although brief in duration. EC op has freezing rain extending well into VA now along I-81. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 1 1 1 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Meh, but the pacific isn’t perfect so we’ll probably waste it. We need a perfect look!!!!!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Even a 2009-10 type negative NAO event couldn't get the job done. People are rightfully upset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 45 minutes ago, nj2va said: Are you sure that’s the Euro Hi Res? The image says ‘GFS’ next to the model. LOL. Even the best models can’t overcome me being a dumbass 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Meh, but the pacific isn’t perfect so we’ll probably waste it. We need a perfect look!!!!!!! No...from what the knowledgeable posters have said on here...doesn't have to be PERFECT...but just not hostile. (I think PSU said something to the effect of...when other things are great all an opposing factor has to be is mediocre and we can still make things work) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Even a 2009-10 type negative NAO event couldn't get the job done. People are rightfully upset. Please go count cars from the middle of your closest interstate 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: No...from what the knowledgeable posters have said on here...doesn't have to be PERFECT...but just not hostile. (I think PSU said something to the effect of...when other things are great all an opposing factor has to be is mediocre and we can still make things work) I was being sarcastic. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I was being sarcastic. shhhh you're not supposed to tell people that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Canadian is definitely the most bullish right now. Verbatim, would be a significant ice event for western zones. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, thunderman said: Canadian is definitely the most bullish right now. Verbatim, would be a significant ice event for western zones. Nice comparison, thanks for posting. Euro went colder and took a step towards the CMC albeit not as aggressive like you said. It’s interesting how this system keeps evolving from what it looked like a day or two ago. LWX mentioned that in their disco earlier this morning - continuing evolving guidance gives them low confidence in their forecast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: shhhh you're not supposed to tell people that. Well in your case, I kinda assume that...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The new edition of the Euro weeklies think the west based -NAO is gonna be around awhile. 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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