January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

[yoda]

Good runs the models have shown for the New Year.  Potential for snow there will be yes yes... but hard to see the future is.  The Dark Side, always watchful it is, waiting to take our snow away.

[BristowWx]

Yoda starting this thread is money.  Here we go folks.  I looked at the 384 GEFS...how do we get AN temps with that H5 look?  Where is the cold? 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Interesting, do any of those terms mean anything to you?  I am only vaguely familiar with NWP.  I was under the impression that it involves lots of non-linear partial differential equations.

I am by no means an NWP expert. I didn’t get that deep into that before switching majors and most of what I do know is actually from my own research out of curiosity and wanting to understand some. But from my limited grasp if it is an EDM as he says then it focuses on using time series data to make causal inferences about the factors governing the observations in the time series and then use those correlations and inferred causalities to predict the future.  That’s different from the typical nonlinear hydrostatic and non hydrostatic models that initialize the atmosphere then use the differential equations that govern physics to predict the future. Back to the original issue EDMs require significantly less computing power and resources.  I am sure I didn’t do this justice and hopefully one of our resident NWP experts can chime in with a better explanation. @Disc @dtk  @high risk
 

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am by no means an NWP expert. I didn’t get that deep into that before switching majors and most of what I do know is actually from my own research out of curiosity and wanting to understand some. But from my limited grasp if it is an EDM as he says then it focuses on using time series data to make causal inferences about the factors governing the observations in the time series and then use those correlations and inferred causalities to predict the future.  That’s different from the typical nonlinear hydrostatic and non hydrostatic models that initialize the atmosphere then use the differential equations that govern physics to predict the future. Back to the original issue EDMs require significantly less computing power and resources.  I am sure I didn’t do this justice and hopefully one of our resident NWP experts can chime in with a better explanation. @Disc @dtk
 

Thank you for this info.

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yoda starting this thread is money.  Here we go folks.  I looked at the 384 GEFS...how do we get AN temps with that H5 look?  Where is the cold? 

Look at the 850 anomalies. The air is cold enough if we get a decent storm track. But regarding the surface anomalies there are 2 factors. First they use 1981-2010 climo to calculate and frankly our base state is warmer. Slightly below normal for RIGHT NOW is probably slightly above normal for the climo period the model is using. That’s depressing but it is what it is. The bigger factor is that we’re still suffering from the worst fall pattern ever that didn’t allow any cold to build anywhere in North America. Then blocking set in but we never got cross polar flow to inject the cold over in Asia. So we essentially blocked in the pac puke. The domestic airmass is slowly cooling but we’re still paying the price for the fact we rolled into December with the whole continent torching.  There just isn’t any true cold around. Very small pockets form when an intense cyclone mixes it down then it quickly mixes with the surrounding airmass and moderates. We just need to hope that airmass is “cold enough” that with a good track we can get snow. It should be as we get into January. And if we can get an injection from cross polar flow at some point it would help going forward. 

[Ji]

In my many years of watching models.. tonight's 00z gfs maybe the worst I've ever seen

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

In my many years of watching models.. tonight's 00z gfs maybe the worst I've ever seen

Can’t argue. It’s pretty rough.  

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Can’t argue. It’s pretty rough.  

Cutters?

[psuhoffman]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Cutters?

Everything lol 

[RedSky]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

In my many years of watching models.. tonight's 00z gfs maybe the worst I've ever seen

What happened how did 2012's run get in there lol

 

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

In my many years of watching models.. tonight's 00z gfs maybe the worst I've ever seen

Ensembles are alot better

Go with them in the long range 

[Ji]

Euro has potential d10

[aldie 22]

39 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has potential d10

This is going to be quite the show watching to see if you can have patience with this pattern lol hope you enjoy Christmas time with your family 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Euro has potential d10

Yes, it sure does.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, it sure does.

 

 

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro has potential d10

Define 'potential'.

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Define 'potential'.

Potential = Something you can’t shovel. 

[WxUSAF]

This would be what we’re all looking for on the PAC side

 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Potential = Something you can’t shovel. 

Here is the look 12 hours later after that 240 hour Euro Op run on the 0z EPS....This has potential....

[LP08]

I think everyone is anxious because it’s been so long seeing red in the right places.  
 

I think the reason we are not getting fantasy hits is the block being too Far East with the crap pac.  Every piece of ensemble guidance gets some sort of PNA help out west around day 10 with a retro west of the NAO ridge.  Like PSU said, we don’t need anomalous cold, especially in early January. I think there will be some sort of good storm in the first 10 days of Jan.  
 

 

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This would be what we’re all looking for on the PAC side

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro has potential d10

As is that’s likely to cut due north. Actually because of too much blocking. The blocking retrograded so far southwest that the trough cannot progress east at all and is just doing a fujiwara with SWs rotating around. But it has potential in that if you adjust the block north slightly it’s better. I Don’t mind seeing a too extreme solution. 

[frd]

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

Hearing about concerns related to source regions from several mets. 

This went in the wrong direction, hopefully by mid Jan this looks much different. CFS progression makes sense, so it is not out there alone with bringing improvements in the EPO region.   

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

There we go. Thats the look we need to get the cold air that's locked up in Siberia/Mongolia over the pole into a better region to tap. Now get that look under 7 days! 

[JakkelWx]

Is the damn pacific ever going to cooperate? 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There we go. Thats the look we need to get the cold air that's locked up in Siberia/Mongolia over the pole into a better region to tap. Now get that look under 7 days! 

Donald Sutherland did some posting about the  CFS last winter, and its accuracy for the month ahead. What he found was it really gets into its wheelhouse of accuracy around this time of the month for the month ahead. So, it would appear you can place a little more faith on the CFS at this time. 

 

[psuhoffman]

 

[PivotPoint]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, it sure does.

 

Looks like a cutter

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

I read what PSU posted about cold air or lack thereof. Good read and makes sense. There’s just no cold air anywhere to be found, and with a warming climate I feel like we need more help to get snow than 20-30 years ago. That said I do think we loose that crap PAC but how long does that take is the question. We’ve done this kick the can deal for a couple winters now

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

Sustain the -AO and we will get the cold air as we move into the heart of winter, as long as the Pac isn't a dumpster fire. If the SWE is legit, that bodes well for continuation of HL blocking.

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

and i'm sure the op models are handling this perfectly while we transition

[frd]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Sustain the -AO and we will get the cold air as we move into the heart of winter, as long as the Pac isn't a dumpster fire. If the SWE is legit, that bodes well for continuation of HL blocking.