Christmas Eve Mega Front Disco/Obs

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, chris21 said:

The November 1995 cold front is the one that stands out the most for me in Bethesda. I remember high winds, thunder and a dramatic temp drop with 1.5 inches of paste. It was early November (the 8th maybe), I actually lost power for the night.

I think it was a Saturday night. Walked outside from a party to find 2 inches on the ground and snow winding down. Totally unexpected and was like wtf.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, yoda said:

I'd be more concerned about the flash freeze potential IMO

Very real possibility with this

[Disc]

Take a look at the 21z SREF for kicks for the western folks. 

[nj2va]

18z Euro gives McHenry almost 8” (Kuchera) through Saturday afternoon.  Good for the ski resorts (Wisp down to Snowshoe) to replenish their packs.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Disc said:

Take a look at the 21z SREF for kicks for the western folks. 

Is there a good link for that other than NCEP?

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'd be more concerned about the flash freeze potential IMO

I feel like that happens as much as cold chasing precipitation. Seems like the strong dry NW wind always dries the roads before it's able to freeze. Regardless.. at least this front will be interesting.

[snowmagnet]

4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I think it was a Saturday night. Walked outside from a party to find 2 inches on the ground and snow winding down. Totally unexpected and was like wtf.

I was trying to remember when this storm was. I went into a Caps game in Landover in a warm rainstorm.  When we came out, everyone was freezing and we couldn’t find our car on the parking lot. That was a really memorable day. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I feel like that happens as much as cold chasing precipitation. Seems like the strong dry NW wind always dries the roads before it's able to freeze. Regardless.. at least this front will be interesting.

True... but with the snowmelt and 2 inches of rain... probably better chance than usual

[Disc]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Is there a good link for that other than NCEP?

weather.cod.edu is good as a free option. 

Has a 3-4" mean total snow for the northern Shenandoah Valley/81 corridor.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Disc said:

weather.cod.edu is good as a free option. 

Has a 3-4" mean total snow for the northern Shenandoah Valley/81 corridor.

Hey thanks. I’ll look at that. I had found a site that was decent. Now all we have to do is hope for the SREFS to be right 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_

[Roger Smith]

When the front comes through around midnight or 0100h, TRW+ 60/59 followed by about a half hour of rain showers turning to ice pellet showers then snow, each lasting a few minutes, temps within an hour or two 30 deg, falling further to 20 by morning, flash freeze conditions turning untreated side roads into icy disaster areas, clear blue skies by sunrise, snappy cold WNW winds 30G50, wind chills around 8-10 F. No temperature rise on 25th, falling further in the evening to around 10 F. 

[NorthArlington101]

[Snowchaser]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

this would be dreamy!  0.5-2''

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

3knam ups the ante on rain ending as snow showers early Xmas morning. 

12k has slowed the cold push. Not what I wanted to see

[Eskimo Joe]

Meso's trying to hit the back end snow more HRRR has some little max near St. Mary's and Calvert counties, unless I'm missing something.

[Lake Frederick Mike]

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

Also remember a frontal passage in November 1995 that dropped some accumulating snow behind the front when I was living in College Park.  Dramatic temperature drop that day also.

I recall this perfectly, at my parents for dinner in Clinton, Md and had a tree fall on my ‘84 Blazer, incredible front.

[gymengineer]

57 minutes ago, chris21 said:

The November 1995 cold front is the one that stands out the most for me in Bethesda. I remember high winds, thunder and a dramatic temp drop with 1.5 inches of paste. It was early November (the 8th maybe), I actually lost power for the night.

I was in Potomac, MD, for the event. It was on 11/11/95, and like you, I lost power. We lost power during the severe thunderstorm part of the event pre front clearance, but power came back during the snow. 2” accumulated where I was. 

3/8/05 was another such type of frontal passage where a Severe Thunderstorm Warning preceded a rapid change to snow that covered the grass.  

2/14/15 was the ultimate flash freeze frontal passage, but wasn’t preceded by actual severe weather. 

We do much better with the ENE oriented strong cold front passages with the following wave. Those have been WSW events for us. Just in March, we saw those events 3/8/96, 3/3/14, 3/5/15, etc. 

[HighStakes]

8 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I was in Potomac, MD, for the event. It was on 11/11/95, and like you, I lost power. We lost power during the severe thunderstorm part of the event pre front clearance, but power came back during the snow. 2” accumulated where I was. 

3/8/05 was another such type of frontal passage where a Severe Thunderstorm Warning preceded a rapid change to snow that covered the grass.  

2/14/15 was the ultimate flash freeze frontal passage, but wasn’t preceded by actual severe weather. 

We do much better with the ENE oriented strong cold front passages with the following wave. Those have been WSW events for us. Just in March, we saw those events 3/8/96, 3/3/14, 3/5/15, etc. 

Another strong front that produced rapidly falling temps and a quick 2-3 hour period of snow resulting in a couple inches occurred March 1995. Can't remember exact date. 

[high risk]

42 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

When the front comes through around midnight or 0100h, TRW+ 60/59 followed by about a half hour of rain showers turning to ice pellet showers then snow, each lasting a few minutes, temps within an hour or two 30 deg, falling further to 20 by morning, flash freeze conditions turning untreated side roads into icy disaster areas, clear blue skies by sunrise, snappy cold WNW winds 30G50, wind chills around 8-10 F. No temperature rise on 25th, falling further in the evening to around 10 F. 

         I lost track trying to count the number of incorrect details in this post.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, HighStakes said:

I think it was a Saturday night. Walked outside from a party to find 2 inches on the ground and snow winding down. Totally unexpected and was like wtf.

Definitely was a Saturday. I played in a soccer tournament that day when it was 60 degrees and that evening got 3” of snow. 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

True... but with the snowmelt and 2 inches of rain... probably better chance than usual

Yep, LWX mentioned flash freeze in their morning headline today for areas west of I-81.  

[WVsnowlover]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I mentioned these earlier. Only time I ever saw these was Jan of 77.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_roller
 

That's amazing!

[nj2va]

00z GFS has the band of snow showers running south of DC from OC/Rehoboth to Dale City-ish on Christmas Day.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

00z GFS has the band of snow showers running south of DC from OC/Rehoboth to Dale City-ish on Christmas Day.

Wonder if that’s where they originate or where they end up on that time stamp.  Seems odd to just form there.  Maybe it’s not.  

[WEATHER53]

This will be fun hourly and maybe intra hourly obs. 30-35 degree drop likely and I wonder how much of that is fast?

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, WVclimo said:

I remember that front in 1977 that WinterWxLuvr mentioned.  We were under a blizzard warning in Cumberland when they let us out of middle school early.  Perplexing as we were boarding the bus in sunny, balmy weather.

By the time I got home, the sky was black in the west, like a wall cloud in summer.  We ended up with a few inches in the valley but the Appalachians scored big.  And the wind was as advertised.

Also remember a frontal passage in November 1995 that dropped some accumulating snow behind the front when I was living in College Park.  Dramatic temperature drop that day also.

Yes. I think this is my biggest. In Laurel then 62 to 32 in 3 hours. Lead in to epic 1996 

[nj2va]

16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I used to be City-ish ....now I'm Redneck- ish. It took a while but it happens. 

I like to think of myself as weenie-ish...where does that fall?  

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember thunder with the rain in 95' before the snow but I might be remembering a different 90s strong CF .

I need to start making a journal of memorable weather events.  I’m always amazed at the ability by people here to remember random azz events.  I’m happy if I can remember where I put my iPhone down

[nw baltimore wx]

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I need to start making a journal of memorable weather events.  I’m always amazed at the ability by people here to remember random azz events.  I’m happy if I can remember where I put my iPhone down

I remember events from when I was a kid, but nothing now.

[nj2va]

I can still remember getting in trouble for throwing snowballs at passing cars on our street growing up after the Jan 96 storm in NJ. And then I’d shovel snow back into the street after a plow came through so school would keep getting cancelled (as if that had any impact ha). 
 

anyways back on topic, HRDRPS has that same snow band south of DC but it’s more localized over the eastern shore. Models seem to like that area for some reason for some surprise Christmas snow.