josh_4184 Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake effect snow off of Erie is the wettest of the great lakes. Our ratios are usually 1:15 to 1:20. I think it has to do with being the southern most lake and higher lake temps on average for events. A lot has to do with the flow of the wind. NW wind is usually higher ratio snow due to colder conditions. I get hit with W/SW wind which is usually not as cold resulting in lower ratios. Yea for my area earlier in the season for LES it tends to be more moisture rich with ratios around 15-1, as winter progresses and the lakes cool and the colder air comes it the snow tends to be more powdering like talcum powder. Doesn't accumulate as well and is a biT*& to see when driving in stronger bands. Of course a lot of this depends on the how cold the 850s are, how much RH, and if the snow is in the cloud layer or pushed to the deck creating much smaller dendrites. With that being said I am looking forward to our best setup of the year for decent LES. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWSW Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 hours ago, WestMichigan said: If only the GFS would verify. Nearly 3' IMBY. However the Euro says no way. Give me less than 12". Either way, definitely looking to double my YTD snowfall and maybe more. 3 hours ago, frostfern said: Lake effect is always weird in terms of measurement. Very high winds can cut down on the fluff factor, as can a low DGZ causing more plate-dominant snow. Think you'd need 25:1 ratio at least to get three feet out of any model output. Lake effect is always better than 10:1, but you need temps in the mid 20s and wind under 15 mph to get the crazy 20:1 ratio dendrite-dominant feather-fluff. Even then it doesn't really feel like as much as the official measurement because when it gets deeper than 6" it settles fast under it's own weight even within 6-12 hours of falling. From GRR: High confidence in Arctic air outbreak Sunday through at least the middle part of the following week, but the daily details are still unclear. Still some suggestion of a synoptic system possibly developing along the baroclinic zone to our south Saturday night/Sunday which may lead to some some synoptic snows followed by lake effect with several more inches possible. However the latest ECMWF now has quite a bit of sfc ridging moving in early next week which could limit the lake effect potential. If that did occur though, winds would be lighter and wind chills would not be as brutal than if strong westerly flow persists as suggested by the GFS. Other complicating factor farther out in terms of daily specifics and additional snow amounts is whether or not any clipper systems will be dropping in from the northwest. How's the lake effect snow totals looking like for sunday and monday? NWS mentioned above that it could be limited. I am in kzoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Lake effect belts should do extraordinarily well over the next week or two. Probably talking several feet of snow given the air mass and vortex just north of the Lakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 21 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake effect snow off of Erie is the wettest of the great lakes. Our ratios are usually 1:15 to 1:20. I think it has to do with being the southern most lake and higher lake temps on average for events. A lot has to do with the flow of the wind. NW wind is usually higher ratio snow due to colder conditions. I get hit with W/SW wind which is usually not as cold resulting in lower ratios. Snow from a single dominant band may have updrafts strong enough to cause significant riming of flakes. Places in northern and western Michigan don't get those kinds of bands most of the time. It's typically persistent light snows from weaker bands with some orographic enhancement added in the slightly higher areas up north. Also, immediate GRR area gets a lot of nickle-and-dime 2-3" snowfalls that add up to more when measured over days than if the same liquid were to fall in a single 24 hour period. The relationship between depth and liquid content isn't linear. Seems more logorithmic to me with fluffy snow as the bottom layers compress under the weight of new snow added on top, especially when you get over 6". This biases smaller snowfalls to higher ratios than big ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Watches in place for first event ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more in the most persistent lake snows. Winds during the heaviest lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Watches in place for first event ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more in the most persistent lake snows. Winds during the heaviest lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on Friday. I do find it interesting how much earlier NWS Buffalo hoists headlines then APX. Also it does seem odd how they use both Lake Effect Snow warnings and Winter Storm warnings for the same weather events:. Most of Michigan NWS's switched over 100 percent to Winter Weather and Storm warnings for all snow events synoptic or LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 29 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: I do find it interesting how much earlier NWS Buffalo hoists headlines then APX. Also it does seem odd how they use both Lake Effect Snow warnings and Winter Storm warnings for the same weather events:. Most of Michigan NWS's switched over 100 percent to Winter Weather and Storm warnings for all snow events synoptic or LES. I really wish they would seperate Lake effect snow watches/warnings from winter storm watches/warnings. They are inherently quite different, especially around here with one place getting a few feet while others get a few inches. I don't understand why they changed something that was working. The 1st event starts Friday Night, so figured all watches should be up by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I really wish they would seperate Lake effect snow watches/warnings from winter storm watches/warnings. They are inherently quite different, especially around here with one place getting a few feet while others get a few inches. I don't understand why they changed something that was working. The 1st event starts Friday Night, so figured all watches should be up by now. I think the whole idea was to have consistency for headlines for people wouldn't get confused, a lot of people travel don't even know what LES is let alone a warning. However it seems that NWS BUF hasn't fully adopted it and doesn't do any favors by picking which headline they use for LES depending on the forecaster it seems. With that being said GRR seems pretty bullish on the LES chances which is fairly rare it seems for them. A poster eelier was posting a previous AFD from them stating LES would be cut back due to riding. Today they say: --Lengthy cold snap, coldest yet this winter-- The cold Arctic air mass is expected to impact the Great Lakes Region through the end of next week. High temps will be mostly in the teens with lows in the single digits or below zero and wind chills often below zero. It`s been quite a while since we`ve had a lengthy stay of air this cold and winter has been fairly tranquil so far, so definitely a big change. Ice on area rivers and lakes will continue to grow... see hydro section below. --Snow piles up over the next week-- Westerly flow lake effect snows are likely to persist into Friday night and Saturday with additional accumulations near and west of 131. Then we get another Arctic front coming through on Saturday which may produce a widespread/areawide 1-2" snowfall, followed by additional lake effect yet again in wrn sections Saturday night. After that, the thing to watch will be a clipper system sliding through southern sections Sunday night and perhaps even another synoptic snow event for Monday night. Some locations over wrn Lwr MI could easily end up with two feet or more of new snow by this time next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Lake Michigan still wide open for business very little ice if any pretty rare this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, josh_4184 said: Lake Michigan still wide open for business very little ice if any pretty rare this time of year. Lake Erie being wide open in February is extremely rare. Only a little bit of ice near Cleveland. Should have about 2 weeks or so of open waters as that cold air means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Lake Erie being wide open in February is extremely rare. Only a little bit of ice near Cleveland. Should have about 2 weeks or so of open waters as that cold air means business. NWL: Lake Mich usually take a while to freeze compared to shallow Erie but to not have Green bay covered with ice this late in the season is pretty crazy. Areas downwind of Ontario are going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: NWL: Lake Mich usually take a while to freeze compared to shallow Erie but to not have Green bay covered with ice this late in the season is pretty crazy. Areas downwind of Ontario are going to get hammered. Yeah Erie is at 33 degrees still some places are still at 38 degrees. Very rare. I think 2 weeks from now we will be looking at 80% ice on Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS still pretty bullish for my area, painting 40-50" somewhere near me and upwards of 70" in the UP. Ready to put my new snow plow to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 KBUF for round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 hours ago, josh_4184 said: Lake Michigan still wide open for business very little ice if any pretty rare this time of year. Was that Satellite pic from today? Looking closely I can see our lake, Higgins looks mostly open unless there hasn’t been any snow since it actually locked up a few days ago which now that I think about it is probably the case. Crazy Green Bay is still open that much also, with the wind direction expected to be mostly from the west this weekend north west lower around Petoskey and Harbor Springs should get hit pretty hard. We actually have to drive from Higgins to Harbor Springs Friday morning, that drive might be a little rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, slow poke said: Was that Satellite pic from today? Looking closely I can see our lake, Higgins looks mostly open unless there hasn’t been any snow since it actually locked up a few days ago which now that I think about it is probably the case. Crazy Green Bay is still open that much also, with the wind direction expected to be mostly from the west this weekend north west lower around Petoskey and Harbor Springs should get hit pretty hard. We actually have to drive from Higgins to Harbor Springs Friday morning, that drive might be a little rough. Lakes are completely open for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lakes are completely open for business. Sorry Buffalo, was referring to Higgins lake, it’s a inland lake in northern lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, slow poke said: Sorry Buffalo, was referring to Higgins lake, it’s a inland lake in northern lower MI. Np, but yes that picture was taken today. Should have some epic snowmobile conditions next 2 weeks up in Michigan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Np, but yes that picture was taken today. Should have some epic snowmobile conditions next 2 weeks up in Michigan! I’m sure you’re area will get some serious snow in the next couple weeks with the lake open and all this cold air coming in. Area’s to our west and east have really done well in the snow department lately compared to Michigan. I can’t remember the last time MI has had weather worthy enough for someone for the weather channel to visit for. Hopefully that will change and winter can finish up strong in its final 5 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, slow poke said: I’m sure you’re area will get some serious snow in the next couple weeks with the lake open and all this cold air coming in. Area’s to our west and east have really done well in the snow department lately compared to Michigan. I can’t remember the last time MI has had weather worthy enough for someone for the weather channel to visit for. Hopefully that will change and winter can finish up strong in its final 5 weeks or so. Places in New York have been getting insane snowfall totals from synoptic systems. We've only had 2 LES events total here in WNY on the year. One in Dec and one In January. Binghamton had an event where places got 40-45" and then this last storm places in central NY got 30". We've been in the synoptic desert here in WNY. Central/Eastern NY is where its at this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, slow poke said: I’m sure you’re area will get some serious snow in the next couple weeks with the lake open and all this cold air coming in. Area’s to our west and east have really done well in the snow department lately compared to Michigan. I can’t remember the last time MI has had weather worthy enough for someone for the weather channel to visit for. Hopefully that will change and winter can finish up strong in its final 5 weeks or so. One of The Weather Channel guys wasn't Detroit for the February 9, 2018 snowstorm. Friend of mine who works downtown saw him while they were doing one of their segments. I honestly don't even know what channel The Weather Channel is on my cable network lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 hours ago, (((Will))) said: Holy shit. I was going post yesterday, but forgot to do it, that I haven't heard a peep out of Will or bo lately. I figured that GFS clown would get a rise out of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: One of The Weather Channel guys wasn't Detroit for the February 9, 2018 snowstorm. Friend of mine who works downtown saw him while they were doing one of their segments. I honestly don't even know what channel The Weather Channel is on my cable network lol. Didn’t know that, I must have missed it. Different strokes for different Folks I guess, I enjoy the weather channel, always have. I don’t watch any news so what little TV I do catch is TWC and a movie or Discovery channel in the evening. I enjoy weather no matter where it’s at, our weather in Michigan is so boring and Stagnant most of the time I need to get my exciting weather fix somewhere, can’t look out my window at feet of snow like Chicago or New York people can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, slow poke said: Didn’t know that, I must have missed it. Different strokes for different Folks I guess, I enjoy the weather channel, always have. I don’t watch any news so what little TV I do catch is TWC and a movie or Discovery channel in the evening. I enjoy weather no matter where it’s at, our weather in Michigan is so boring and Stagnant most of the time I need to get my exciting weather fix somewhere, can’t look out my window at feet of snow like Chicago or New York people can. TWC should have been here Nov 11 last year.. That was a historic storm for its time of year (8-12" Detroit area, up to 18" in the thumb after les). Definitely different strokes for different folks. When the weather is boring my weather fix is looking at old stats/weather data, trying to find pictures, news articles, etc. I would consider Michigan one of the least "stagnant" areas of weather because it's usually active. Not necessarily big storms but unsettled weather in the Great Lakes is far more common than elsewhere. The zzzz stretch that encompassed much of January was quite rare. As for deep snow? it's going to vary on year. in the past 20 years, 9 winters saw deeper snow in Detroit than Chicago with 8 winters Chicago seeing deeper (3 were a tie). 10 winters Detroit saw deeper than NYC and 10 NYC saw deeper. As you would expect, Detroit saw the most days with snow on the ground, followed by Chicago, then new york. The takeaway is ALL 3 of those places (and im sure many more) have seen far more frequent double digit snow depth the past few decades than climatology would suggest. The only thing that sucks more than crappy winters is crappy winters after you've been spoiled. What's really funny is that with an active pattern going forward it is absolutely attainable for Detroit to finish above avg snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 “We`re likely looking at a quarter to half inch per hour type snow west of US-131. Over the course of a couple of days, it`ll add up to close to a foot in some locations, perhaps more in others. As is usually the case with lake effect, substantially less snow...4 to 6 inches...is expected east of US-131 through the weekend.” -GRR Looks like I gotta go to the up north house this weekend. Family has a beautiful place on the Pere Marquette between Ludington and Baldwin. Should b buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: One of The Weather Channel guys wasn't Detroit for the February 9, 2018 snowstorm. Friend of mine who works downtown saw him while they were doing one of their segments. I honestly don't even know what channel The Weather Channel is on my cable network lol. It was either Bettes or Seidel. I was in downtown having fun in the snow and talked to him. Most recent time someone from TWC was in Michigan was when the dams collapsed in Edenville and Sanford 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 16 hours ago, josh_4184 said: GFS still pretty bullish for my area, painting 40-50" somewhere near me and upwards of 70" in the UP. Ready to put my new snow plow to work. will Gaylord proper be too far east? supposed to head north in a few weeks. What would you recommend is the best spot based on the upcoming setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: will Gaylord proper be too far east? supposed to head north in a few weeks. What would you recommend is the best spot based on the upcoming setup? Chicago or New York! Lol.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 34 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: It was either Bettes or Seidel. I was in downtown having fun in the snow and talked to him. Most recent time someone from TWC was in Michigan was when the dams collapsed in Edenville and Sanford Good catch MIstorm, totally forgot about that last year. That was pretty localized but definitely a major problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 34 minutes ago, slow poke said: Chicago or New York! Lol.... New York would be fun during a storm but afterward your talking about a bunch of dirty snow & immediate melting. Brother lives in Chicago, theyve been kind of due, esp on the lakeshore, so I can't hate. Jokes aside the entire state of Michigan should be a frozen Winter wonderland but I really think some of the Lake effect could be epic in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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