BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 22 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Coming up on what is normally our coldest period of the year will be anything but the next couple weeks. West Based NAO. The worst pattern for great lakes. Too warm for lake effect, and storm track to far east for synoptic. We need to get a negative EPO going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Hopefully the upcoming potential change will improve for everyone especially the LES belts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 There should be a pretty excellent, extended lake response with the continued NW flow coming starting next weekend (Knocks on wood). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Yep^ I’m gonna keep checking this forum because if that ULL dives south I’m gonna go LES chasing I’m stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 How we doing up there Bo? Just booked my snowmobile trip March 5-7 in Munising. Better make it snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, mimillman said: How we doing up there Bo? Just booked my snowmobile trip March 5-7 in Munising. Better make it snow! We actually just canceled our mid February snowmobile backpack across the UP trip yesterday. You would think there would be “ok” snow up there by then but with the way this season has gone so far who knows what it will be like next month up there. Plus with the restaurant and bars being closed till February 1st now there’s no guarantee they will be open by then also unfortunately. Just to many risks for our group to commit to doing it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: go away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, slow poke said: We actually just canceled our mid February snowmobile backpack across the UP trip yesterday. You would think there would be “ok” snow up there by then but with the way this season has gone so far who knows what it will be like next month up there. Plus with the restaurant and bars being closed till February 1st now there’s no guarantee they will be open by then also unfortunately. Just to many risks for our group to commit to doing it this year. Yea, part of the reason why I pushed it back to start of March. Was looking at end Feb but I'd like to give February a chance to perform for the UP and lay something down. Everything is cancellable so we'll wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 10 hours ago, mimillman said: How we doing up there Bo? Just booked my snowmobile trip March 5-7 in Munising. Better make it snow! How does she run on mud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: How does she run on mud? I will have the last laugh when we're cruising at 65mph in Pictured Rocks on 4 ft of snowpack. Ahwooooooga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: I will have the last laugh when we're cruising at 65mph in Pictured Rocks on 4 ft of snowpack. Ahwooooooga Meh, its snowmobiling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, Stebo said: Meh, its snowmobiling. Speaking of which, I miss Jonger snowmobiling posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 43 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Speaking of which, I miss Jonger snowmobiling posts. Like missing a giant hole in your head. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 12 hours ago, mimillman said: How we doing up there Bo? Just booked my snowmobile trip March 5-7 in Munising. Better make it snow! I had planned to take my annual trip North in mid February but I may push it back to late February. Not sure yet I am going to monitor the weather but the snow depths up North right now are unreal. I cannot recall such low depths up there, I am sure it's happened before but not in my recollection. A friend went snowmobiling in Grand Marais last week and looked like there was maybe 4-5" snowpack which means tons of dirt on the trails. That should be one of the snowiest areas of the upper peninsula and they should have several feet on the ground by now. Supposedly paradise only has a few inches which blows my mind. Pattern definitely looks to be changing but it will be interesting to see how much and how fast they can catch up. I was in Munising a few years ago when they had near 50" depths. The current snow depth there right now is 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 22 hours ago, slow poke said: We actually just canceled our mid February snowmobile backpack across the UP trip yesterday. You would think there would be “ok” snow up there by then but with the way this season has gone so far who knows what it will be like next month up there. Plus with the restaurant and bars being closed till February 1st now there’s no guarantee they will be open by then also unfortunately. Just to many risks for our group to commit to doing it this year. This winter so far is reminding me of 97-98 when we had a very strong El Nino. When we did get a snow we didn't get much. It seems they keep forecasting a robust lake effect snow and then it is a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 free jonger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: Yeah. It's pretty horrible. Where I live we have maybe 15-20 inches of snow...but you go downhill in any direction and that quickly drops to under 10 inches. Hopefully this coming week gets things turning around I was actually considering Houghton or calumet this year but considering its a farther drive I want to see how much snow there will be. Kind of want to save that for a good or even average snow year. we are still talking a month away and with a pattern change imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 Look's like one of if not the best LES setup of the year albeit in Mi Jan lol. APX calling for 1-2" per hour, somewhere around my area will see a 12"+ easy. Quote Forecast/Details. The primary concern of the short term will be ongoing accumulating lake effect snow, potentially heavy at times, continuing through Wednesday morning. The heaviest banding is currently expected to be Tuesday night. Forecast soundings display a very favorable environment to support accumulating snowfall across NW lower and eastern upper Michigan. Saturated profiles look to extend upward of 10kft with much of this layer collocated within the DGZ. Delta-Ts in excess of 15 degrees will support ample over lake instability, leading to efficient lake effect snow production. Better band organization may materialize after sunset, aiding the potential for higher accumulations over more concentrated areas. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour cannot be ruled out in the strongest lake effect bands, which would result in rapid drops in visibility and hazardous travel on snow-covered roadways. Some inverted-V profiles near the surface and non-uniformity in wind direction in the saturated layer may hinder overall organization/accumulation some. However, this may be a case of when dominant bands get going, they are there to stay. Several additional inches of snow are possible across NW lower and eastern upper by Wednesday morning with locally high amounts, especially within areas impacted by the heaviest banding. Some 24HR reports of 10"+ of snow by Wednesday morning would not be surprising should a few dominant bands develop. Lake effect snow chances will gradually wane through Wednesday as winds begin to turn more S/SW as the aforementioned clipper system approaches the region. Additional snow chances return to the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the front end of the system, but substantial accumulations with this aren`t expected and should remain confined to the norther half of the area. Lake effect chances will return on the backside of the system Thursday as it departs to the NE, but will be discussed in more depth in the long term discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 34 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Look's like one of if not the best LES setup of the year albeit in Mi Jan lol. APX calling for 1-2" per hour, somewhere around my area will see a 12"+ easy. To your knowledge what area of lower Michigan has the deepest snowpack right now? is it the traditional belts near Gaylord? Trying to figure out where to go a month from now. A lot can change obviously but some of the snow depths unbelievably low. If the upper peninsula stays so low on snow I may just go somewhere in northern lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: To your knowledge what area of lower Michigan has the deepest snowpack right now? is it the traditional belts near Gaylord? Trying to figure out where to go a month from now. A lot can change obviously but some of the snow depths unbelievably low. If the upper peninsula stays so low on snow I may just go somewhere in northern lower. Cadillac as of this moment, will probably change after this week to somewhere around my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, josh_4184 said: Cadillac as of this moment, will probably change after this week to somewhere around my area. That's what I was thinking. Im just going to play it by ear the next few weeks and make a decision probably in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 hours ago, josh_4184 said: Cadillac as of this moment, will probably change after this week to somewhere around my area. Just north of West Branch to Just north of Houghton Lake had the deepest snow we saw when we drove home yesterday. We picked up a few fresh inches Friday night at Higgins Lake but just south of us got more. We now have about 10” on the ground at our place but just south of us to the south west has a few inches more then that right now. Snow wise around our place it’s been pretty decent considering areas not to far north and south of us have had quite a bit less. We have friends in Lakes of the north and they had to ride side x sides this weekend because of the lack of snow up there, we were fortunate enough to have another decent weekend of snowmobiling at our place. My gripe is the lack of cold air again this winter. Our lake still isn’t safe enough to ride out on completely, I ran out of ice Saturday morning while riding on it and had to turn around and head back to shore. We need cold air, simple as that and it will snow in the snow belts of Michigan. We’ve actually had a pretty good snowpack up there for over a month now considering how warm it’s been, there’s lots of moisture in it. Looking like a few fresh inches of fluff this week that should only help build up the snow pack more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 31 minutes ago, slow poke said: Just north of West Branch to Just north of Houghton Lake had the deepest snow we saw when we drove home yesterday. We picked up a few fresh inches Friday night at Higgins Lake but just south of us got more. We now have about 10” on the ground at our place but just south of us to the south west has a few inches more then that right now. Snow wise around our place it’s been pretty decent considering areas not to far north and south of us have had quite a bit less. We have friends in Lakes of the north and they had to ride side x sides this weekend because of the lack of snow up there, we were fortunate enough to have another decent weekend of snowmobiling at our place. My gripe is the lack of cold air again this winter. Our lake still isn’t safe enough to ride out on completely, I ran out of ice Saturday morning while riding on it and had to turn around and head back to shore. We need cold air, simple as that and it will snow in the snow belts of Michigan. We’ve actually had a pretty good snowpack up there for over a month now considering how warm it’s been, there’s lots of moisture in it. Looking like a few fresh inches of fluff this week that should only help build up the snow pack more. Yea you area has been a better track for synoptic snow its mainly missed our area. Plus no LES equals bad snow depth, my house is about 2 miles from LON same here obviously. We do have about 7" OTG but trails are shot. This LES shot incoming should help a little along with the snow later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Picked up about 5" overnight, looks like another 5-9"+ thru tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 8 hours ago, josh_4184 said: Picked up about 5" overnight, looks like another 5-9"+ thru tomorrow. Plus Thursday into Saturday morning should give you guys another good dumping it’s looking like. Sounds like it’s been extremely fluffy, like 20:1. That’s some fluff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, slow poke said: Plus Thursday into Saturday morning should give you guys another good dumping it’s looking like. Sounds like it’s been extremely fluffy, like 20:1. That’s some fluff! Been snowing very heavy past hour l snowflakes size of silver dollars. 2” per hour easy right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Have about 13" OTG now, deepest of the season, starting to look like winter around here again for the LES Belts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Have about 13" OTG now, deepest of the season, starting to look like winter around here again for the LES Belts. Picked up almost a foot the last few days here 10" on the ground and places just SE of here picked up 30-35" with 28" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now