2020-2021 LES Thread

[josh_4184]

Picked up another 3-4" overnight of Fluff, finally looks like winter around here.  Not LES related but looking like upwards of 6" of cement for tomorrow and another decent look for Friday/Saturday.  Nice to be able to use the new Snow Plow (probably why the winter has been so terrible :)) 

[slow poke]

Just now, josh_4184 said:

Picked up another 3-4" overnight of Fluff, finally looks like winter around here.  Not LES related but looking like upwards of 6" of cement for tomorrow and another decent look for Friday/Saturday.  Nice to be able to use the new Snow Plow (probably why the winter has been so terrible :)) 

That same band gave us a couple inches late last night also. It was really coming down for a while. We probably have 8” or so now on the ground now here at Higgins, the lake effect fluff settles down fast. The snowmobiling was decent yesterday and should only get better as the week goes on. I’m heading up to Gaylord in a bit to Home Depot actually, I’m curious to see the difference in snow depth in places in that 30 miles.

[josh_4184]

8 minutes ago, slow poke said:

That same band gave us a couple inches late last night also. It was really coming down for a while. We probably have 8” or so now on the ground now here at Higgins, the lake effect fluff settles down fast. The snowmobiling was decent yesterday and should only get better as the week goes on. I’m heading up to Gaylord in a bit to Home Depot actually, I’m curious to see the difference in snow depth in places in that 30 miles.

Yea, it was coming down at 1-2" an hour for a while in that band, definitely has settled some already. I was at about 12" otg at my house which is about 14 miles SW of Gaylord near LON on C38.

[BuffaloWeather]

An intense band of lake effect snow dropped over a foot of snow to central NY overnight. Forecast was for 4-7".

[BuffaloWeather]

22 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Picked up another 3-4" overnight of Fluff, finally looks like winter around here.  Not LES related but looking like upwards of 6" of cement for tomorrow and another decent look for Friday/Saturday.  Nice to be able to use the new Snow Plow (probably why the winter has been so terrible :)) 

Looks good for you Josh. I don't think we see any flakes here for at least 2+ weeks. I also don't see enough cold air in long range for possibly longer than that. At least Lake Erie will stay warm.

[josh_4184]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks good for you Josh. I don't think we see any flakes here for at least 2+ weeks. I also don't see enough cold air in long range for possibly longer than that. At least Lake Erie will stay warm.

Such an odd winter with the majority of our snow being synoptic so far, usually 70% is from LES.  We haven't really had to many synoptic events in the past few years besides a few clippers here and there. Next few weeks look pretty tough for everyone regarding storms and Cold/LES chances. As you said at least the lakes will not freeze. 

 

Still about 25" below normal on the year around 40% deficit doubtful we hit average this year among most everyone.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, josh_4184 said:

Such an odd winter with the majority of our snow being synoptic so far, usually 70% is from LES.  We haven't really had to many synoptic events in the past few years besides a few clippers here and there. Next few weeks look pretty tough for everyone regarding storms and Cold/LES chances. As you said at least the lakes will not freeze. 

 

Still about 25" below normal on the year around 40% deficit doubtful we hit average this year among most everyone.  

Western NY had 2 synoptic events of 4-8" and 1 big LES event, that's it for the year. When was the last good clipper pattern? 2013/2014?

[josh_4184]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Western NY had 2 synoptic events of 4-8" and 1 big LES event, that's it for the year. When was the last good clipper pattern? 2013/2014?

Been a long time, we usually cash in on clippers with extended period  NW Winds doesn't seem to be the norm the past few years.  My first couple years up in Gaylord area we were hitting 175"+ year ever year, the past 3 or 4 not even hitting the average around 140-150. Again sounds pretty petty when other areas cant even muster 40" but when living in snowbelts you just get used to heavy yearly snow.

[slow poke]

5 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Been a long time, we usually cash in on clippers with extended period  NW Winds doesn't seem to be the norm the past few years.  My first couple years up in Gaylord area we were hitting 175"+ year ever year, the past 3 or 4 not even hitting the average around 140-150. Again sounds pretty petty when other areas cant even muster 40" but when living in snowbelts you just get used to heavy yearly snow.

Snow depth looks “about” the same everywhere between exit 244 and 280 except around Waters where it looks a little deeper, maybe by a inch or two. Really surprised how little snow there is in Gaylord, Grayling actually seems to have a little more at this time. As we were driving we were talking about the old n days during the week between Christmas and new year’s up around Gaylord and how crazy it used to be with snowmobilers, now it’s so different. Lack of snow and lack of new people getting into the sport is really killing it from a numbers stand point.

[josh_4184]

3 hours ago, slow poke said:

Snow depth looks “about” the same everywhere between exit 244 and 280 except around Waters where it looks a little deeper, maybe by a inch or two. Really surprised how little snow there is in Gaylord, Grayling actually seems to have a little more at this time. As we were driving we were talking about the old n days during the week between Christmas and new year’s up around Gaylord and how crazy it used to be with snowmobilers, now it’s so different. Lack of snow and lack of new people getting into the sport is really killing it from a numbers stand point.

Yea Gaylord City area is a little less, they missed out on the recent LES, it stayed south of town towards my area. In a WNW flow Southern Otsego does better. Regardless all areas are in a sad state, and I agree about the sport. Although I will say I was an avid snowmobiler until I moved up here then the fun kind of dwindled away. Maybe part because you get a little burned out of shoveling. driving. looking at snow from Nov to April (Normal years) although I love it it does take some of the fun away. also the sport is very expensive for as little as you can enjoy it versus Summer/warm activites such as Sxs/ATVs etc which can be used all year. 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Yea Gaylord City area is a little less, they missed out on the recent LES, it stayed south of town towards my area. In a WNW flow Southern Otsego does better. Regardless all areas are in a sad state, and I agree about the sport. Although I will say I was an avid snowmobiler until I moved up here then the fun kind of dwindled away. Maybe part because you get a little burned out of shoveling. driving. looking at snow from Nov to April (Normal years) although I love it it does take some of the fun away. also the sport is very expensive for as little as you can enjoy it versus Summer/warm activites such as Sxs/ATVs etc which can be used all year. 

Yeah with global warming, everyone down here has Jet Skis, very little snowmobiles now adays until you get much higher elevation. The majority of my group of friends has one and are able to use it from May-October. With snowmobiles you're lucky if you get out 3-4 times a winter.

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah with global warming, everyone down here has Jet Skis, very little snowmobiles now adays until you get much higher elevation. The majority of my group of friends has one and are able to use it from May-October. With snowmobiles you're lucky if you get out 3-4 times a winter.

Buffalo's average winter temperature averages 1.3° warmer and 2 days less per year with snow on the ground than 100 years ago. (Snowfall itself has increased significantly). It would seem to me like anyone who's into snow activities would still be into them the same. I go to northern MI every Feb and all you see is snowmobiles. We are often the only car parked in a restaurant lot of snowmobiles .  I always thought of mid to late winter as the best time over early winter, even though Bing fills our minds with those gorgeous December scenes. Here, our winter temperatures are 0.8° warmer than 100 years ago, snowfall several inches more, and snowcover days have held nearly steady.  Basically, it would seem like the slight increase in temperature is giving us more snow & precipitation so the net result is similar snowcover. Again im talking overall.  Obviously it varies from year to year. Between 2012-15, the Great Lakes just saw 2 years with record ice cover and 1 year with record early U.P. snowmelt.

[BuffaloWeather]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Buffalo's average winter temperature averages 1.3° warmer and 2 days less per year with snow on the ground than 100 years ago. (Snowfall itself has increased significantly). It would seem to me like anyone who's into snow activities would still be into them the same. I go to northern MI every Feb and all you see is snowmobiles. We are often the only car parked in a restaurant lot of snowmobiles .  I always thought of mid to late winter as the best time over early winter, even though Bing fills our minds with those gorgeous December scenes. Here, our winter temperatures are 0.8° warmer than 100 years ago, snowfall several inches more, and snowcover days have held nearly steady.  Basically, it would seem like the slight increase in temperature is giving us more snow & precipitation so the net result is similar snowcover. Again im talking overall.  Obviously it varies from year to year. Between 2012-15, the Great Lakes just saw 2 years with record ice cover and 1 year with record early U.P. snowmelt.

Temps have increased 3.2 degrees in winter in Buffalo. I've lived here my entire life and the while snowfall has been around the same snow on the ground has dramatically decreased. You need snow on the ground to snowmobile, not just snow falling from the sky. 

Over the past 50 years, the average number of days with 6 inches or more in the ground has decreased from 34 days to 19 days. That has the potential to be harmful to winter sports businesses.

 

https://www.wgrz.com/article/weather/forecast/climate/warming-winters-may-lead-to-more-snow-for-western-new-york/71-066a5545-e706-4a0a-b974-f94f4878ee16

[josh_4184]

28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Temps have increased 3.2 degrees in winter in Buffalo. I've lived here my entire life and the while snowfall has been around the same snow on the ground has dramatically decreased. You need snow on the ground to snowmobile, not just snow falling from the sky. 

Over the past 50 years, the average number of days with 6 inches or more in the ground has decreased from 34 days to 19 days. That has the potential to be harmful to winter sports businesses.

 

https://www.wgrz.com/article/weather/forecast/climate/warming-winters-may-lead-to-more-snow-for-western-new-york/71-066a5545-e706-4a0a-b974-f94f4878ee16

I would be curious to see if Northern Mi and and UP have had similar climate changes in the same period. I have had relatively limited time up here about 8 years so don't have much to base my own experience. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Temps have increased 3.2 degrees in winter in Buffalo. I've lived here my entire life and the while snowfall has been around the same snow on the ground has dramatically decreased. You need snow on the ground to snowmobile, not just snow falling from the sky. 

Over the past 50 years, the average number of days with 6 inches or more in the ground has decreased from 34 days to 19 days. That has the potential to be harmful to winter sports businesses.

 

https://www.wgrz.com/article/weather/forecast/climate/warming-winters-may-lead-to-more-snow-for-western-new-york/71-066a5545-e706-4a0a-b974-f94f4878ee16

The 1970s were the coldest and in many cases snowiest decade on record. Thats why i brought up 100 years, though idk if winter sports were popular in 1920. If a snowmobiles heyday was in the 70s, i would see their point. The same chart ending in 1970 would show Buffalos winters had gotten 1.3° colder in the previous 50 years.

just in case you're interested, here is Buffalos avg 6"+ depth days per decade

1900s- 21

1910s- 35

1920s- 26

1930s- 17

1940s- 27

1950s- 11

1960s- 32

1970s- 38

1980s- 27

1990s- 20

2000s- 26

2010s- 21

source: xmacis

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The 1970s were the coldest and in many cases snowiest decade on record. Thats why i brought up 100 years, though idk if winter sports were popular in 1920. If a snowmobiles heyday was in the 70s, i would see their point. The same chart ending in 1970 would show Buffalos winters had gotten 1.3° colder in the previous 50 years.

just in case you're interested, here is Buffalos avg 6"+ depth days per decade

1900s- 21

1910s- 35

1920s- 26

1930s- 17

1940s- 27

1950s- 11

1960s- 32

1970s- 38

1980s- 27

1990s- 20

2000s- 26

2010s- 21

source: xmacis

This is highly flawed my man. Before the 1940s the record keeping was done right on the shoreline, literally on the beach. So of course snowfall depth/totals would be much lower then where they are now at Buffalo International Airport (14 miles inland). I didn't expect you to know this though. You can only use 1943 onward for Buffalo stats. 

1943-1944 is the first datapoint you can use 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFsnowdepth

The average number of days for the past 76 winter seasons are: 

1 inch - 71.2 days       6 inches - 24.6 days     12 inches 8.6 days

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is highly flawed my man. Before the 1940s the record keeping was done right on the shoreline, literally on the beach. So of course snowfall depth/totals would be much lower. I didn't expect you to know this though. You can only use 1940 onward for Buffalo stats. 

1943-1944 is the first datapoint you can use 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFsnowdepth

The average number of days for the past 76 winter seasons are: 

1 inch - 71.2 days       6 inches - 24.6 days     12 inches 8.6 days

you are correct, i didn't know this. One thing that's pretty common no matter where you look is the 1930s-50s were the most putrid period of winters for the northeast half of the country.

[BuffaloWeather]

The 1950s were one of Buffalos snowiest decades, (at least the second half) although it didn't stick around long

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow

1955-1960 were incredible winters here for snowfall to totals. 

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

The 1950s were one of Buffalos snowiest decades, although it didn't stick around long

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow

I suspect its the same thing we see now. Milder winters caused more LES

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I suspect its the same thing we see now. Milder winters caused more LES

The longer lake erie stays ice free the better chance of a big LES event. However, we need cold air to get good LES. That's been tough to find. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

I would be curious to see if Northern Mi and and UP have had similar climate changes in the same period. I have had relatively limited time up here about 8 years so don't have much to base my own experience. 

 I can try to look up the data however It's a little more difficult in the North country due to less climate stations. I would think Sault Saint Marie is probably the best option to look up? One thing that's pretty certain, it doesn't matter where you are looking, the 1970s were the coldest winters on record just as the 1930s & 1950s were some of the, if not the, warmest.  So any Temp graph would have a similar downward curve if you did 1920 to 1970, upward curve you did 1970 to 2020, or a more subdued upward curve if you did 1920-2020. Snow and snow depth would be the interesting one, and I would think that either Alpena or the Soo would be the only places that had consistent records. 

 

interesting enough, the 2010s had the most 6"+ snowdepth days on record at Detroit, thanks in large part to 2013-14 & 2014-15...2nd place was the 1970s. The 1940s had the least.

[josh_4184]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I can try to look up the data however It's a little more difficult in the North country due to less climate stations. I would think Sault Saint Marie is probably the best option to look up? One thing that's pretty certain, it doesn't matter where you are looking, the 1970s were the coldest winters on record just as the 1930s & 1950s were some of the, if not the, warmest.  So any Temp graph would have a similar downward curve if you did 1920 to 1970, upward curve you did 1970 to 2020, or a more subdued upward curve if you did 1920-2020. Snow and snow depth would be the interesting one, and I would think that either Alpena or the Soo would be the only places that had consistent records. 

 

interesting enough, the 2010s had the most 6"+ snowdepth days on record at Detroit, thanks in large part to 2013-14 & 2014-15...2nd place was the 1970s. The 1940s had the least.

I would think APX should have good records for my area since the NWS is only about 8 miles east of my location , although their website isn't the best they do have some pages for snowfall etc.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

I would think APX should have good records for my area since the NWS is only about 8 miles east of my location , although their website isn't the best they do have some pages for snowfall etc.

I was able to find Gaylord records since 1939. But I don't know where they were taken lol. 6"+ snowdepth days per decade

1940s- 76

1950s- 98

1960s- 107

1970s- 115

1980s- 101

1990s- 99

2000s- 101

2010s- 88

 

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was able to find Gaylord records since 1939. But I don't know where they were taken lol. 6"+ snowdepth days per decade

1940s- 76

1950s- 98

1960s- 107

1970s- 115

1980s- 101

1990s- 99

2000s- 101

2010s- 88

 

Definitely a downward trend in 12+ days on KBUFS map. As you pointed out definitely skewed a lot by 1970s 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFsnowdepth

[josh_4184]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was able to find Gaylord records since 1939. But I don't know where they were taken lol. 6"+ snowdepth days per decade

1940s- 76

1950s- 98

1960s- 107

1970s- 115

1980s- 101

1990s- 99

2000s- 101

2010s- 88

 

APX moved SW of gaylord about 15 years ago, before that most records were kept at the Airport in Gaylord I believe which sees about 15% less snow then its current location yearly. 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

APX moved SW of gaylord about 15 years ago, before that most records were kept at the Airport in Gaylord I believe which sees about 15% less snow then its current location yearly. 

If KBUF moved 5 miles SE of its location, the yearly average would go up 10-20". Pretty crazy 

[michsnowfreak]

You can definitely see the ebbs and flows of 1"+ snowcover days coinciding with milder or colder winters at Detroit. the 2010s had an unusual excess of snowfall which helped erode the milder winters (of course huge exception being record cold 2013-15).

1910s- 58

1920s- 52

1930s- 42

1940s- 49

1950s- 47

1960s- 56

1970s- 57

1980s- 47

1990s- 37

2000s- 51

2010s- 53

[josh_4184]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If KBUF moved 5 miles SE of its location, the yearly average would go up 10-20". Pretty crazy 

if I recall one of the reasons why NWS chose the location it did 9 miles SW of Gaylord was due to its elevation. They were able to get the Radar beam in a higher location compared to the city, due to the elevation differences nearby, especially were I am its almost a plateau it would certainly have negative effects on the radar beam performance.  Kind of a similar issue that NWS Marquette deals with due to the Huron MTNs and they beam not able to pick up the low level LES in the Keweenaw area very well.

[josh_4184]

Coming up on what is normally our coldest period of the year will be anything but the next couple weeks.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

37 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

if I recall one of the reasons why NWS chose the location it did 9 miles SW of Gaylord was due to its elevation. They were able to get the Radar beam in a higher location compared to the city, due to the elevation differences nearby, especially were I am its almost a plateau it would certainly have negative effects on the radar beam performance.  Kind of a similar issue that NWS Marquette deals with due to the Huron MTNs and they beam not able to pick up the low level LES in the Keweenaw area very well.

That makes sense. KBUF is right next to the Buffalo Airport. The Buffalo national weather service official building is like 1/4 mile away where they measure, so it makes sense for them to be the spot for measuring.