BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 1-2' like I said. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: 1-2' like I said. Boom... and they did not specify just south of Buffalo either! Looks like we’re all in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Still a watch here, probably have to wait till tomorrow for a potential warning.. WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of more than a foot possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times with snow covered roads and poor visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 7-17” for Northern Erie, 11-22” for Southern Erie County. So I’m confused. They seem to be giving more credence to the synoptic over southern Erie and Chautauqua co? Is that the 4 inch higher totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: So I’m confused. They seem to be giving more credence to the synoptic over southern Erie and Chautauqua co? Is that the 4 inch higher totals? I was a little confused too why they went Winter Storm Warning for Southern Tier but Lake Effect Snow Warning for Northern Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Looks like buffalo hasn't updated the LR AFD for several cycles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 They are confused themselves. No mention of synoptic snow. I think they are riding nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 It seems the Lake effect snow warning for Northern Erie is only for the lake effect since it doesn’t start until noon Friday. The synoptic will be long over by then so I’m unsure if the 7-17” is from the lake effect only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I was a little confused too why they went Winter Storm Warning for Southern Tier but Lake Effect Snow Warning for Northern Erie. Assuming they think the south areas are more likely to get some synoptic snow (guessing 4”?) so they went WSW and added the 4” to include both events. But north areas they don’t feel confident in synoptic so just doing the LES Warning. They always make it so confusing when these smaller events overlay a larger one. It’s this or pop a LES Warning for all and toss in a WWAdvisory once the synoptic hits. Either way it’s confusing to the public... IMO... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Assuming they think the south areas are more likely to get some synoptic snow (guessing 4”?) so they went WSW and added the 4” to include both events. But north areas they don’t feel confident in synoptic so just doing the LES Warning. They always make it so confusing when these smaller events overlay a larger one. It’s this or pop a LES Warning for all and toss in a WWAdvisory once the synoptic hits. Either way it’s confusing to the public... IMO... So the 7-17” is including the 4” from the Synoptic storm, even though the lake effect snow Warning doesn’t start until noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: So the 7-17” is including the 4” from the Synoptic storm, even though the lake effect snow Warning doesn’t start until noon? Yeah again no sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... There will be two distinct phases for accumulating snowfall. The first will primarily affect far SW NY Thursday night, which roughly includes higher elevations of Chautauqua County, Western Cattaraugus County, and Southwestern Erie County. This area will get clipped by the heavier synoptic snow, potentially up to 12", on the cold side of a developing surface low moving from PA into the North Country by Friday morning. With the above in mind, issued a Winter Storm Warning for SW NY, knowing that this will need to be converted to a LES Warning after the synoptic snow ends. This should also match our neighbors across the NYS line. The 2nd phase will be lake effect that will develop during Friday, starting out as a relatively weak band initially over far Western NY during the morning. This should intensify however as the band develops a full lake fetch as the coldest air aloft (easily seen by following forecast 500mb temps) moves toward the region from the WSW. Expect a full blown LES band over the Buffalo and possibly northtowns by Friday eve, before the band begins to move S a little again Friday night and settles over the more traditional areas just South of Buffalo and over the Southtowns, where it should slowly weaken through Saturday. There should only be 1-2" from the synoptic snow, then a long enough break before the LES band begins. Therefore, went just with a LES Warning for Northern Erie and (Western portions of) Genesee and Wyoming counties. Adding up both the synoptic snow and LES snow, some areas could see 1-2` of snow. Briefly covering the pattern responsible...a well-formed longwave trough now covers much of the Central US. This has spawned a surface low with associated blizzard conditions over the Upper MidWest. But this feature allows a strong jet on the south side of the trough to spin up a secondary low over the Midwest and into PA by Thursday evening, while abundant moisture streams north from the Gulf of Mexico. Cold air over the midwest should then move east, changing any ongoing rain over to snow, at least for WNY. Highest snow totals will be closest to the PA state line/over the Chautauqua Ridge where there may be a little lake enhancement by Friday morning. Far less is expected further inland. Meanwhile, areas from near KROC east to the Eastern Lake Ontario may still wake up to grass instead of a White Christmas. But this will change, at least for lake snow-prone areas as colder air aloft rushes into the region later Friday. As noted above, a full blow LES band will be underway by Friday evening, and a similar lake response is expected ~Friday night ENE of Lake Ontario. This is fairly far out the the forecast though, so left a Watch in place. By Saturday, the LES bands should be ongoing. One concern will be another Canadian-sourced shortwave trough that will race ESE during the day. This may force the lake bands to back a little, particularly east of Lake Ontario, before being snapped back to the ESE later in the day or Saturday eve. With uncertainty and details still a little fuzzy, the Watch seems reasonable for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Im way more optimistic for the synoptic snow for BUF than I am the lake-effect. Weird lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Im way more optimistic for the synoptic snow for BUF than I am the lake-effect. Weird lol. Me too! Surprised just 1-2” from synoptic in BUF area with the expected track. Maybe they’re thinking the changeover on the NIA Frontier happens after main area of precipitation is gone?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Well...when it comes to lake effect the Buffalo office is one of the best. I will say, however, if there’s a full tilt band over Buffalo and the north towns 3” an hour is not out of the question IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3k Synoptic. This is pre lake effect. Look at that north south gradient. Warning criteria synoptic on the west side and less than an inch on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 No SW winds on the latest NAM, not sure what model they're using this is a southtown south "event". I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: No SW winds on the latest NAM, not sure what model they're using this is a southtown south "event". I guess we will see. It is perplexing but I did state earlier Carl Parker from TWC did show the Euro model with winds backing by evening on that model...maybe they have a different look? You know KBUF uses all models so they’re seeing some consistency we don’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Need to get the higher res in range. The NAM keeps a decent band with WSW winds going for quite awhile Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 This is pretty much what KBUF is forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Need to get the higher res in range. The NAM keeps a decent band with WSW winds going for quite awhile Saturday That’s pretty dang close to the metro. With thermal troughing that thing could be right at KBUF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: No SW winds on the latest NAM, not sure what model they're using this is a southtown south "event". I guess we will see. It tries to bend that band SW but not until Saturday PM now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: This is pretty much what KBUF is forecasting Pretty funny look off Ontario lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Not that I worry to much about the NAM anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Not that I worry to much about the NAM anyway.. Sums up the NAM beyond 48 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: It tries to bend that band SW but not until Saturday PM now... That is right to the Erie- Niagara border. With the heaviest snow about 5 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 RGEM is huge hit. at 1:10 20" bullseye over my place. Kuch 26" Last frame still going strong 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 So the local WIVB net has 4-8 for Hamburg north and 2-4 southern Niagara-far northern Erie... with a lake effect snow warning...where the NWS has 7-17...I want to become a meteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM is huge hit. at 1:10 20" bullseye over my place. Kuch 26" Last frame still going strong Still push the proverbial 5 miles north... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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