BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 High RES GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Last panel of the rgem looks like it's backing west, have no problem sharing with freak as long as I get mine lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: High RES GFS I still think the band forms further north than scheduled and then sweeps south after a few hours... Right now camps are 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z GFS has about 6” of synoptic and the band over Buffalo and just south for the part of the run up to hour 72. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 29 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Good look! That’s Downtown out to the airport special. Classic 250 look right there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: That’s Downtown out to the airport special. Classic 250 look right there. I have to trust the more hi res models at this point...they’re getting into their wheelhouse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: High RES GFS This is 36 hours old. Just FYI. Wish they’d run it regularly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Another nice hit on the global Canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Another nice hit on the global Canadian.. Drops around 18-22" at my place we take. I think all those totals get moved north a bit as lake temps are super warm for this time of year. I'd be surprised if Erie PA is jackpot at 3 feet in this setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Drops around 18-22" at my place we take. I think all those totals get moved north a bit as lake temps are super warm for this time of year. I'd be surprised if Erie PA is jackpot at 3 feet in this setup I agree. This is still looking good for metro and north towns too. I’d be happy with a foot between both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Absolute crush job on the ukmet at 10-1 lol It probably went a little over board but I like the flow which is what I'm looking at..Starts Friday evening ends during the day Sunday.. Ukmet shows LES better than you would expect for a lower resolution model.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 44 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Absolute crush job on the ukmet at 10-1 lol It probably went a little over board but I like the flow which is what I'm looking at..Starts Friday evening ends during the day Sunday.. Ukmet shows LES better than you would expect for a lower resolution model.. Wolfie liked that one, max right over pulaski. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Cautiously optimistic lol I have been burned way to many times in the SR..Still have a couple days before the meso-models get into range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Cautiously optimistic lol I have been burned way to many times in the SR..Still have a couple days before the meso-models get into range.. The lake effect looks worse and worse last few runs, It looked pretty big a few days ago, still cautiously optimistic with that amount of cold air with those lake temps. We need to get all the short range models within timeframe. Tomorrow we should have a better idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Last run of the 12z suite, looks similar to previous runs..Starts WSW Friday evening and sinks south for Saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The lake effect looks worse and worse last few runs, It looked pretty big a few days ago, still cautiously optimistic with that amount of cold air with those lake temps. We need to get all the short range models within timeframe. Tomorrow we should have a better idea. Yeah I’m not sweating the euro for LES it’s horrible with it...12z synoptically shows 6-8” for WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah I’m not sweating the euro for LES it’s horrible with it...12z synoptically shows 6-8” for WNY Eh.. It's not great at depicting band strength. But the model literally has westerly flow at 850mb over the lake after the low departs Friday morning through Saturday. I wouldn't say that's exactly exciting if you like lake effect in BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Last run of the 12z suite, looks similar to previous runs..Starts WSW Friday evening and sinks south for Saturday.. I think no matter what all watches go to warnings. Just might not be for the reasons we thought... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Eh.. It's not great at depicting band strength. But the model literally has westerly flow at 850mb over the lake after the low departs Friday morning through Saturday. I wouldn't say that's exactly exciting if you like lake effect in BUF. The question is it on its own in that depiction? Seems like the other models (NAM, GFS, RGEM) disagree with it. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Dam came way down for lake snow in buffalo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: The question is it on its own in that depiction? Seems like the other models (NAM, GFS, RGEM) disagree with it. Thoughts? I never seriously use NAM/RDPS out near 60-72 h. Mesomodels do screwy things with overall synoptic pattern as you go further out. It's just something to give pause. I'm not sure if it's right, but the ecmwf pattern is not good for lake effect for BUF and it's definitely a model I'd want in my camp if I wanted a significant event to unfold. The whole system is very convoluted. It's not a slam dunk. The upper level low is diving down in the OV/TN valley while a surface low is over Quebec. That evolution i think is causing some of the uncertainties. If you had a stacked low over Huron/south of James Bay we wouldn't be in a holding pattern right now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Dam came way down for lake snow in buffalo I wish they would show the whole event lol They don't wanna include Sat yet.. Looks like they are low-balling the synoptic portion but who knows, they are the pros not me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: I wish they would show the whole event lol They don't wanna include Sat yet.. Looks like they are low-balling the synoptic portion but who knows, they are the pros not me.. Yeah that seems very low considering what the models are spitting out. I do wonder if this storm is faster than forecast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 KBUF really low in the synoptic portion IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Winds really never go SW at all on the Euro. The Euro would hit me for a bit, but even I am too far north. By early Sunday, winds are NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Winds really never go SW at all on the Euro. The Euro would hit me for a bit, but even I am too far north. By early Sunday, winds are NW Which we know is incorrect because there’s warm weather advection by Saturday morning...that run seems strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 .LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Lake snows will develop over southwest NY during the day and move north and intensify during the afternoon. Snow will be heaviest during the evening before lake bands move back toward the south on Saturday. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 17 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Lower accumulations of 3-7 inches are expected over eastern portions of Genesee and Wyoming counties. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7-17” for Northern Erie, 11-22” for Southern Erie County. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. This will initially be widespread wet snow Thursday night, followed more localized lake effect snow Friday into Saturday. There may be a break in the snowfall Friday before the lake effect snow kicks in. Total snow accumulations of 11 to 22 inches. Lower accumulations of 3-7 inches are expected over the southwest half of Cattaraugus County. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Cattaraugus and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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