Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Luke_Mages said: I’m afraid I’ll be too far south in Clarence for once lol Nahhhh were southern end at worst at best were smack middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Come on D I know this has you getting more excited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Come on D I know this has you getting more excited I’m pumped but there’s still 48-60 hours till go time. Anything can happen. We’ve gotten burned too many times to be all in this far out. I’ll feel better if things still look like this tomorrow at this time. A little shift west and we get almost no synoptic snow and the flow is even more SW and the band ends up from NT to Lockport with a quick transition through the metro into the Southtowns. A little shift east and yeah we might get an inch or two more synoptically but winds land up more Westerly and jackpots Southern Erie instead of metro BUF. We need this storm track to line up perfectly to get a 240 degree flow right into BUF. That being said I’m happy that we at least have something to track and there should be a solid lake effect band somewhere in Erie/Niagara County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Did they say... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 25 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I’m pumped but there’s still 48-60 hours till go time. Anything can happen. We’ve gotten burned too many times to be all in this far out. I’ll feel better if things still look like this tomorrow at this time. A little shift west and we get almost no synoptic snow and the flow is even more SW and the band ends up from NT to Lockport with a quick transition through the metro into the Southtowns. A little shift east and yeah we might get an inch or two more synoptically but winds land up more Westerly and jackpots Southern Erie instead of metro BUF. We need this storm track to line up perfectly to get a 240 degree flow right into BUF. That being said I’m happy that we at least have something to track and there should be a solid lake effect band somewhere in Erie/Niagara County. The way I’m interpreting things, which is often distorted normally, is that the mean flow as of now is SW with some members showing SSW...if it’s the latter then the verbiage says the band only moves a little south overnight which would jackpot us. If it’s the former we still get about 6 to 10 hours of +SN and about a foot...I cautiously like where we’re at right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 You can see the difference in the trough just from one run to the next.. Exact track will take some time.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You can see the difference in the trough just from one run to the next.. Exact track will take some time.. Buffalo would get smashed with LES in that scenario 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Looks like even buffalo gets shafted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Buffalo would get smashed with LES in that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Mostly south and north of buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Mostly south and north of buffaloRLMAOSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Mostly south and north of buffalo Tim don’t look at the snow totals look at the MSLP... the band is center cut over Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Buffalo would be in transition zone. Like in Fulton. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18NAM looks great! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Buffalo would be in transition zone. Like in Fulton. LolFulton is not a transition zone TimSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 However my place is, lolSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, tim123 said: Buffalo would be in transition zone. Like in Fulton. Lol Dude, just stop. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 RGEM coming in hot. The winds become WSW and lock in nearly all day Saturday with 850s in the negative teens. Early call but going 1-2' for all of Erie county and 3' lollies somewhere in Central Erie County. The strong band likely last another 12-18 hours after the end of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Wow...this just keeps getting better and better... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM coming in hot. The winds become WSW and lock in nearly all day Saturday with 850s in the negative teens. Early call but going 1-2' for all of Erie county and 3' lollies somewhere in Central Erie County. I agree this has equal opportunity all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Look at 850s to the west and well aligned flow, moisture starts to lack but it has everything else. Will likely be strong band into early Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 The last frame of the RGEM is the strongest band of the run. 3" per hour rates in that thing easily. Textbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 The WNW wind direction from near Huron and the SW/WSW from across WNY will likely develop some banding structures we've seen similar to the northern end of the band in Nov 2014. Convergent winds create additional lift. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Lake Erie temps are pretty toasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The last frame of the RGEM is the strongest band of the run. 3" per hour rates in that thing easily. Textbook And it’s still going at the end! Talk about a laser right through the north side of the city! This is awesome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: And it’s still going at the end! Talk about a laser right through the north side of the city! This is awesome! Looks like a pretty wide band that covers nearly all of Erie county. Similar to 1985 event IMO. That's my analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like a pretty wide band that covers nearly all of Erie county. Similar to 1985 event IMO. That's my analog. I never want to bring up ‘85 as it’s up there with ‘77 in many respects but this is hinting at some of our bigger events in LES history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I never want to bring up ‘85 as it’s up there with ‘77 in many respects but this is hinting at some of our bigger events in LES history I'm just talking in terms of snowfall distribution, not impact. This will not be as big as that. But I think all of Erie county have 1-2' by Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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