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Major LES event-December 24-27

BuffaloWeather
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said:

The worst was when the young girl on channel 7 said on Thursday that the models all show the snow never making it here and saying it’s gonna all stay in the Southern Tier and that Buffalo was out of the woods. She then showed their in house RPM model which had 4.3” of snow at BUF and said that was their new forecast. What a joke local TV meteorologist have become. Like Rich just said Andy is good and there’s a couple others but not many. 

I had to reassure Devin about 15 times via text that the band would make it to his place. I was actually nervous as his place is quite far north, was going to be close call there. :lol:

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DeltaT13
DeltaT13

Looks like things are petering out but I more than got my fill. Smashed right through the heart of those solid yellows for the last hour (pembroke through Akron and then Clarence). All the backroads h

Buffalo Bumble
Buffalo Bumble

About 30 minutes ago when band was strongest here.  Trees are about 30 yards away for reference.  

DeltaT13
DeltaT13

Well I’m back home after 168 miles and 8 hours of chasing. That was an all timer for me too.  My soul feels rejuvenated!  Definitely got into some insane rates at times, had to be over 3-4”/hr stuff. 

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I had to reassure Devin about 15 times via text that the band would make it to his place. I was actually nervous as his place is quite far north, was going to be close call there. :lol:

Yep right on the cutoff. 5 miles north literally nothing from lake effect. 5 miles south, double what I got. Thankful I got a foot out of this, could have been a lot worse. 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I definitely called it better then KBUF did with this event. Not sure what they were seeing in saying it was going to hit the city last night. I always use upstream radars to dictate future conditions, it almost always works during now-cast events.

The local mets are terrible, not even worth watching. Andy Parker is only good one left.

KBUF did fine.  This was there map Thursday AM... 36 Hours out... That map was almost dead on.  That was the map that all the High Res showed almost identical hits on later in the day.  For whatever reason when the SR models started showing less high impact hits KBUF for whatever reason jumped ship on their first call.  Once they jumped they were stuck chasing the models that were the ones that didn’t handle it well.  

68935A1D-145C-4F63-88D5-B6EA024ACBD2.jpeg

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

KBUF did fine.  This was there map Thursday AM... 36 Hours out... That map was almost dead on.  That was the map that all the High Res showed almost identical hits on later in the day.  For whatever reason when the SR models started showing less high impact hits KBUF for whatever reason jumped ship on their first call.  Once they jumped they were stuck chasing the models that were the ones that didn’t handle it well.  

68935A1D-145C-4F63-88D5-B6EA024ACBD2.jpeg

There was definitely some cliff jumping yesterday when all the models showed less snow, a more westerly wind on the euro, local stations showing a few inches of snow, and kbuf slashing totals. Glad I held my ground.

The euro did terrible with wind direction.

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There was definitely some cliff jumping yesterday when all the models showed less snow, a more westerly wind on the euro, local stations showing a few inches of snow, and kbuf slashing totals. Glad I held my ground.

The euro did terrible with wind direction.

Yeah great for large synoptic systems terrible for mesoscale 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There was definitely some cliff jumping yesterday when all the models showed less snow, a more westerly wind on the euro, local stations showing a few inches of snow, and kbuf slashing totals. Glad I held my ground.

The euro did terrible with wind direction.

This really was a good event.  I’m trying to get an updated listing but this would likely make a top 20 daily snowfall at Buffalo.  This doesn’t happen like this often.  Usually something goes wrong and the metro event duds out.  How many times do these high impact events just not play out?  KBUF tweaked based towards the model changes but they kept a good discussion and never really ruled out the northern push but played it down.  I think they gave a good forecast... The local though... wow rough!  

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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4 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Send the link

On one hand, this is a somewhat crappy and fairy uneventful video.  On the other hand, when I left today I only planned to drive to Batavia and be back home in about an hour or 2 so I had no intention of shooting images for a video, lol.   I really wish I had brought the GoPro or made an effort to get some better shots.  Anyway, it still gives you a decent idea of the journey.  Enjoy..   

Side Note - The images in the video never do it a justice.   The visibility was literally about twice as bad as the video lets on.  I think the camera filters out the snow thinking its noise.
 

 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

On one hand, this is a somewhat crappy and fairy uneventful video.  On the other hand, when I left today I only planned to drive to Batavia and be back home in about an hour or 2 so I had no intention of shooting images for a video, lol.   I really wish I had brought the GoPro or made an effort to get some better shots.  Anyway, it still gives you a decent idea of the journey.  Enjoy..   

Side Note - The images in the video never do it a justice.   The visibility was literally about twice as bad as the video lets on.  I think the camera filters out the snow thinking its noise.
 

 

Nice shots!  Love when your in the city later on when it’s really ripping. What program do you use to put that video together?  

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Nice shots!  Love when your in the city later on when it’s really ripping. What program do you use to put that video together?  

Yeah, the rates at the end were pretty intense!  I love chasing heavy snow in Urban environments.  Way more interesting than driving around in the country.  

The program is called Filmora.  I highly recommend it.   Very easy to use once you get the hang of it.  

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WNash

WNash

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36 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

This really was a good event.  I’m trying to get an updated listing but this would likely make a top 20 daily snowfall at Buffalo.  This doesn’t happen like this often.  Usually something goes wrong and the metro event duds out.  How many times do these high impact events just not play out?  KBUF tweaked based towards the model changes but they kept a good discussion and never really ruled out the northern push but played it down.  I think they gave a good forecast... The local though... wow rough!  

Easily top 20, likely top 10 for daily snowfall.  But there’s a big cluster of events within 1-2 inches of today’s snowfall. It reminds me a lot of the 1/25/2019 storm that jackpotted the airport, but which in retrospect was overshadowed in impact and storm total by the two day blizzard the next week.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFRecords

What really stands out is that daily records don’t fully capture the most impactful winter storms we get, the epic long duration events. The 1985 storm is barely a blip (two modest records, both well under today’s airport total). That said, the 2001 long duration event is utterly impressive in both daily records and storm totals.

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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8 minutes ago, WNash said:

Easily top 20, likely top 10 for daily snowfall.  But there’s a big cluster of events within 1-2 inches of today’s snowfall. It reminds me a lot of the 1/25/2019 storm that jackpotted the airport, but which in retrospect was overshadowed in impact and storm total by the two day blizzard the next week.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFRecords

What really stands out is that daily records don’t fully capture the most impactful winter storms we get, the epic long duration events. The 1985 storm is barely a blip (two modest records, both well under today’s airport total). That said, the 2001 long duration event is utterly impressive in both daily records and storm totals.

This was current as of 2011.  I think there may be 2 additions to this list?  before today... ? No wonder why we always feel let down... We have been spoiled.  We grew up seeing 5 of the top 7 storms in a 10 year period... 

6F795530-3E3B-459E-A662-5762FACE32FE.jpeg

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wolfie09

wolfie09

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1253 am update.. 

Intense band of lake effect snow still ongoing impacting mainly
northern Oswego County centered on Pulaski. This band has reached
its southernmost point, and will begin to drift north again
overnight towards the Oswego/Jefferson County border, and extending
into far western Lewis County. Snowfall rates will continue at 2 -3
inches per hour in the heaviest portion of the band through much of
the night.

Additional accumulations of 7 to 14 inches are expected through
Sunday morning across northern Oswego, far southern Jefferson, and
far western Lewis County.

The lake snow will rapidly weaken and move north across Jefferson
County from late Sunday morning through early afternoon as boundary
layer flow backs and inversion heights
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wolfie09

wolfie09

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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Glad you got hit wolf, what model did the best for your spot? I know models were spitting out 3-4' for tug and that did not happen.

I would probably say the rgem..That's pretty good band placement for 54 hours out.. Went a little too heavy on precipitation yesterday but was definitely closer than what some of the other SR models had..

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_54 (1).png

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WNash

WNash

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13 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

This was current as of 2011.  I think there may be 2 additions to this list?  before today... ? No wonder why we always feel let down... We have been spoiled.  We grew up seeing 5 of the top 7 storms in a 10 year period... 

6F795530-3E3B-459E-A662-5762FACE32FE.jpeg

Is that the Buffalo Blizzards book? I’ve been looking for my copy and can’t find it. The storm this Boxing Day storm might be a little higher than 18.4, right? I don’t have time to dig through the hourly totals from KBUF to see if the 24 hour total might move the storm up that ranking more than the daily total.

Crazy that the November 2014 storm only appears on the KBUF daily records as one mediocre 7.4” daily record snowfall. We were in Parkside at the time and of course we only got a couple of inches.

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