rochesterdave Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Thanks!! It really exceeded my expectations. And as I said before, a daylight chase is so much more enjoyable. I’ve chased at night enough, it’s disorienting and stressful under those intense rates. I actually got some decent video too! I’d have to put it on YouTube though. Send the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: 2nd half of this event was much less than what I expected here. Dry air really killed it after this afternoons burst. 8:30-Midnight- 6.7" Midnight-6am- 11.2" 6am-Noon- 3.8" Noon-6pm- 1.8" Storm total: 23.5" At 38.9" on the year, has to be pretty close to normal if not slightly above. 9pm-8am 11.7” 8am-2pm 5.4” 2pm-7pm 3.8” 24 Hour Lake Effect Total 20.9” Add in the previous day synoptic and that’s 26” in 48 hours. Just shy of 20” snow on the ground which is the most I’ve had in awhile... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 57 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Agreed! And sadly with the weather pattern ahead ours will also vanish by Friday except for snow piles... next 10 days look mild mist days which I can’t understand looking at the indicies My favorite pattern. Keeps Lake Erie warm for more LES. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 I'm in love with my snowblower. Had to be 4' at end of driveway from plow and went through it. Very thick stuff as ratios were lower last night. I can't wait for next storm to use it again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 That timelapse has 2.2k views already. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 9pm-8am 11.7” 8am-2pm 5.4” 2pm-7pm 3.8” 24 Hour Lake Effect Total 20.9” Add in the previous day synoptic and that’s 26” in 48 hours. Just shy of 20” snow on the ground which is the most I’ve had in awhile... Make sure to send to NWS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm in love with my snowblower. Had to be 4' at end of driveway from plow and went through it. Very thick stuff as ratios were lower last night. I can't wait for next storm to use it again! Snow blowing is amazing, especially for us snow addicts. Such fun machines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 @wolfie09 Has to be pretty close to you now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Could be a surprise near the Fulton/Oswego area if the HRRR has a clue lol NWS has nothing in Fulton.. The models are sending this band south and then back north overnight, hrrr is just the most aggressive to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 It's about to get good, at least for the time being.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's about to get good, at least for the time being.. Nice looking band. Def looks like it’s gonna go further south that the KBUF map was showing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 My new Tempest weather station gave me a lightning detection alert late last night, which was cool. We seem to have about 16” of pack — the compacted 5” from the Christmas Eve synoptic + the lake effect from today. So we definitely had a foot or so of lake stuff today. Pretty good storm, especially when we got rocked by the most intense edge of the lake band this afternoon. Fingers crossed we can still get the elusive epic Buffalo metro multi-day event this year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 This is what I've been waiting for lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is what I've been waiting for lol Enjoy! What town are you in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Pulaski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Pulaski ohhh soo right where that blob of yellow is.. nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 The sound you hear in the background is the salmon river, going pretty wild right now lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 ...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON... SOUTHERN LEWIS AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES... At 844 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 2 to 3 inches was located from Sandy Creek to Turin on the northern end and from Altmar to Constableville on the southern end. This band will remain nearly stationary or oscillate a little farther south through 1030 PM. Winds up to 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect snow which will create blowing and drifting to the snow. A rumble of thunder is possible within the most intense portions of the snowband. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly under the more focused band of snow with visibilities under a quarter of a mile at times. Travel will be very difficult with deep snow covered roads. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 40. Other routes impacted include Route 13 between Williamstown and Pulaski and Route 26 between Constableville and Lowville 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Looks like a fresh coating coming back up north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Looks like a fresh coating coming back up north! The band that wouldn’t be stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The band that wouldn’t be stopped This is what KBUF called for tonight. What if this band sets up 20 miles north? Even if it sets up it will be weak and a shore hugger but could bring another 2–4” maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 We already have the forecasted amount lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We already have the forecasted amount lol Way to go Wolfie! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We already have the forecasted amount lol Nice. If I’m reading the radar right it looks like that band is just hanging over the area that BUF only called 1-2” for? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Yup they didn't even bother to update that area lol Band is forming just to my south, all SR models bring it a little north soon, so we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: This is what KBUF called for tonight. What if this band sets up 20 miles north? Even if it sets up it will be weak and a shore hugger but could bring another 2–4” maybe. You know I do wonder a bit regarding the lake effect modeling. As amateur weather enthusiasts (for the 99% on here) how is it that we know that early season lake effect runs a good 5 to 10 miles further north than forecast? And worse many of the local Mets have even worse technology regarding their in-house models ( I think it was channel 2 showed the band never making it above the nearby south towns) rendering them useless. Is there a chance, oh I don’t know, that living an area that gets the magnitude of LES we do can figure out a better modeling component? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Look at that. Little westerly band floating into Eden Angola... That SW flow kicks up and just shoves that plume right into South Towns. Starting to see some flakes flying again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: You know I do wonder a bit regarding the lake effect modeling. As amateur weather enthusiasts (for the 99% on here) how is it that we know that early season lake effect runs a good 5 to 10 miles further north than forecast? And worse many of the local Mets have even worse technology regarding their in-house models ( I think it was channel 2 showed the band never making it above the nearby south towns) rendering them useless. Is there a chance, oh I don’t know, that living an area that gets the magnitude of LES we do can figure out a better modeling component? I definitely called it better then KBUF did with this event. Not sure what they were seeing in saying it was going to hit the city last night. I always use upstream radars to dictate future conditions, it almost always works during now-cast events. The local mets are terrible, not even worth watching. Andy Parker is only good one left. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I definitely called it better then KBUF did with this event. Not sure what they were seeing in saying it was going to hit the city last night. I always use upstream radars to dictate future conditions, it almost always works during now-cast events. The local mets are terrible, not even worth watching. Andy Parker is only good one left. Yeah it’s quite puzzling how poorly they handle these events. I go back to the January 2018 event you and I discussed a couple days back. Same scenario same result. Models the Mets here used grossly under forecast the northward extend of the band and viola the north towns got pummeled then as well, and I know there’s plenty of other instances I just can’t remember them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: You know I do wonder a bit regarding the lake effect modeling. As amateur weather enthusiasts (for the 99% on here) how is it that we know that early season lake effect runs a good 5 to 10 miles further north than forecast? And worse many of the local Mets have even worse technology regarding their in-house models ( I think it was channel 2 showed the band never making it above the nearby south towns) rendering them useless. Is there a chance, oh I don’t know, that living an area that gets the magnitude of LES we do can figure out a better modeling component? The worst was when the young girl on channel 7 said on Thursday that the models all show the snow never making it here and saying it’s gonna all stay in the Southern Tier and that Buffalo was out of the woods. She then showed their in house RPM model which had 4.3” of snow at BUF and said that was their new forecast. What a joke local TV meteorologist have become. Like Rich just said Andy is good and there’s a couple others but not many. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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