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Major LES event-December 24-27


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...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT WESTERN WYOMING...
NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...ERIE...NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA AND GENESEE
COUNTIES...

A band of heavy lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 2 to 3
inches per hour will remain nearly stationary through mid morning
across the southern half of the Buffalo Metro area along and south
of a line from downtown to the airport. Heavy lake effect snow also
extends eastward into Genesee County, and southwest down the Lake
Erie shore to Dunkirk.
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Just now, ayuud11 said:

Yea I’m right off Galleria and we’ve been riding that northern edge all morning long also looks like the band is lining up perfectly on the tip of long point for a nice metro hit.

This is my favorite type of band, gets nearly everyone involved. The strongest part is over KBUF right now, a second strong band near my place.

WUNIDS_map?num=20&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy

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10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Additional snow to come today. We will likely make a run at over 3'

image.thumb.png.54f9422fbcf72b60b29231cdbf0002c0.png

Nice!  Moist cyclonic flow with air temps in the low 20’s and lake temps in the 40’s is always a winning combo!  Not sure where the official forecast ended up, but seems like these relatively early season events usually overproduce. 

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20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

0.thumb.jpg.7cc195f143d79c99afc5082c5bb3880a.jpg

I really appreciate your reports! I have family in Hamburg and I began telling them to expect 2-3 feet of snow back on Thursday. I am formerly 'kulaginman' operating under a new account, by the way lol.

I've been using the RGEM as my "go to" meso model recently, as that handled the recent synoptic event with insane mesoscale banding very well here in New England. If the RGEM is correct with the placement of the LES band...you should be solidly in the crosshairs until at least 5-6pm today. I would anticipate at least another 16-22" of snow in your location today. You are definitely pulling a three-footer out of this.

Enjoy it!! Yesterday's 3.34" of rain and 53-degree temps wiped out our meager snowpack here in New Hampshire.

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2 minutes ago, jculligan said:

I really appreciate your reports! I have family in Hamburg and I began telling them to expect 2-3 feet of snow back on Thursday. I am formerly 'kulaginman' operating under a new account, by the way lol.

I've been using the RGEM as my "go to" meso model recently, as that handled the recent synoptic event with insane mesoscale banding very well here in New England. If the RGEM is correct with the placement of the LES band...you should be solidly in the crosshairs until at least 5-6pm today. I would anticipate at least another 16-22" of snow in your location today. You are definitely pulling a three-footer out of this.

Enjoy it!! Yesterday's 3.34" of rain and 53-degree temps wiped out our meager snowpack here in New Hampshire.

Welcome back! I remember you always posting when you came up around thanksgiving and christmas. Did you recently move to NH?

I was getting a little worried with how the models were trending but as Bumble pointed out these early season events with full length of the lake and above average lake temps usually overperform. The RGEM has been my favorite model for lake effect for a long time, its by far the most accurate.

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Welcome back! I remember you always posting when you came up around thanksgiving and christmas. Did you recently move to NH?

I was getting a little worried with how the models were trending but as Bumble pointed out these early season events with full length of the lake and above average lake temps usually overperform. The RGEM has been my favorite model for lake effect for a long time, its by far the most accurate.

Yes, I moved to New Hampshire in August. My new spot is at 1500' in the eastern White Mountains and averages 100-120"/year. It's a great spot for synoptic snowfall...USUALLY. We have struggled to get things going this year, but winter is long in these parts.

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Just now, jculligan said:

Yes, I moved to New Hampshire in August. My new spot is at 1500' in the eastern White Mountains and averages 100-120"/year. It's a great spot for synoptic snowfall...USUALLY. We have struggled to get things going this year, but winter is long in these parts.

That's awesome! I plan to eventually hike all of those mountains after I finish the Adirondack 46. So many great winter activities up there.

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Some of those roads in the tug are extremely hard to get through even without snow lol And they aren't maintained..I went on one road near barns corner and the next thing I knew I was in the woods lmao No joke road just ended lol 

You're right wolf, I take those roads on my way to lake placid. It's much safer chasing here vs there.

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