Major LES event-December 24-27

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Lot going on out there... That band is trying to hold on for dear life.  Looks like flow turned more west behind that wave, strong cells but are we going to see one new main band take over?  Lot of activity still flaring up north side of lake from long point to Buffalo.  Maybe a dual band trying to set up?  

Shear and high winds are not allowing it to get it really going. I mean almost 7" in 3 hours was incredible, but the potential was there for more. Next few hours will be interesting. Still think morning hours we see our strongest band.

[BuffaloWeather]

@SouthBuffaloSteve Lots of convection near silvercreek.

[BuffaloWeather]

Check out that little swirl near long point, looks WSW winds

https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=CASET

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1202 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020

NYZ010>012-019-020-085-260630-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-Wyoming-Genesee-Northern Erie-
1202 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020

...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT WYOMING...
NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...ERIE...CENTRAL CHAUTAUQUA AND CENTRAL
GENESEE COUNTIES...

A band of lake effect snow producing maximum snow fall rates of 2 to
3 inches per hour will continue overnight from western Chautauqua
County to much of southern and central Erie County, including the
southern half of the Buffalo Metro area. The band of heavy snow will
also extend into central and western Genesee County and western
Wyoming County.

The band of heavy snow is expected to drift a little south over the
next few hours, and may temporarily move out of the Buffalo
Southtowns.

[CNY_WX]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What kind do you have?

She’s a small terrier mix. We rescued her last June after she was brought up from Kentucky. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Band is widening with gaps of banding. Still getting heavy snow. A weird look, obviously some shear coming into play.

[CNY_WX]

Looks like some heavy convection heading your way, BW.

[BuffaloWeather]

52 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Looks like some heavy convection heading your way, BW.

Getting it now, heaviest stuff of the night moving through. Even graupel mixed in. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, WNash said:

Where in TN were you? My mother lives in Nashville (where I’m originally from). That bomb there today has messed up air traffic control and mobile service. As disruptive as it has been, I’m relieved that more people weren’t seriously hurt (or worse).

 

I am in Clarksville, about 45 minutes NW of the Nashville burbs. Yeah, I agree.

I haven't been able to make any phone calls today. Just Facetimed with family instead since the phones are down.

[BuffaloWeather]

Tough to go to sleep with whats happening outside right now. Heavy snow, closing in on a foot.

[BuffaloWeather]

Has to be 3-4”+ per hour outside right now. 

[ayuud11]

Downtown Buffalo out to the airport is going to get hammered in the next hour get ready!!

[ayuud11]

Pure whiteouts currently outside.

[BuffaloWeather]

11.2" from midnight to 6 am. 17.9" storm total so far. Snow depth 20-21"

[BuffaloWeather]

Still snowing here, band has weakened somewhat.

[BuffaloWeather]

A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WYOMING...
NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...CENTRAL ERIE...NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA
AND GENESEE COUNTIES...

A band of heavy lake effect snow is drifting slowly northward and
into the central and southern portions of the Buffalo Metro area
early this morning. Travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly from
downtown to near the airport. Heavy lake effect snow also extends
into much of Genesee County and down the Lake Erie shore to near
Dunkirk.

[BuffaloWeather]

Pool is almost covered

[Thinksnow18]

6 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Nice disco from BUF...

 

Off Lake Erie... Band of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall rates of 2+" per hour along with some thunder continues to lift northward, focusing along the Lake Erie shoreline of Chautauqua county to just south of the Buffalo Airport to near Batavia. Approach of low level trough backing winds enough to lift the band northward a bit more than mesoscale models suggested, but with the passage of the trough the band should refocus south of the Buffalo metro area for a time overnight. However, this should be brief as nearly all mesoscale guidance drifts the band northward toward morning, reaching its northern-most point late in the morning to early afternoon Saturday into the city of Buffalo and even the nearby northern suburbs before starting to drift back south across the southtowns late in the afternoon. Lowering inversion heights, decreasing moisture, and increasing shear will allow the band to weaken Saturday afternoon. Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are still likely where the band persists the longest from western Chautauqua County, the northwest corner of Cattaraugus County, into southern and central Erie County including South Buffalo and the densely populated nearby southtowns. 6-12 inches are possible from downtown to the airport and the nearby northtowns if the band makes it that far north Saturday, with a very sharp drop off in accumulations heading northward through the northtowns.

I have been in the very northern edge of the band for about an hour, light to occasionally moderate snow....baglini on 4 says it may drift a bit more north towards mid morning before heading south after 2pm.

[BuffaloWeather]

Off Lake Erie...

A band of heavy snow is focused from near Dunkirk across much of
southern and central Erie County to near Batavia early this morning.
The band will remain in this area through about daybreak, then drift
north and focus right over the heart of the Buffalo Metro area into
northwest Genesee County from mid morning to mid afternoon. The
northern edge of the band will get as far north as North Buffalo and
the southern portions of Amherst and Clarence for at least a few
hours during this time. Snowfall rates will maintain at 2-3 inches
per hour in the most intense portion of this band through early
afternoon.

Boundary layer flow will veer more to the WSW during the mid to late
afternoon, pushing the lake effect snow back south across the
southtowns, ending up back along the Lake Erie shore to southern
Erie County by this evening. Inversion heights begin to lower by
late afternoon and early evening, and shear increases somewhat. Even
so, a favorable environment below the inversion will still maintain
accumulating lake effect snow tonight. With this in mind, converted
the Winter Storm Warning to a Lake Effect Snow Warning for southern
Erie, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus counties and extended it through most
of tonight.

Lake effect snow will weaken later tonight and end quickly Sunday
morning as inversion heights lower dramatically as warm advection
begins aloft.

Additional accumulations of 12-18 inches are expected today through
tonight from far northern Chautauqua/far northwest Cattaraugus
counties into southern and central Erie County, far western Wyoming,
and western Genesee counties. This includes much of the City of
Buffalo, immediate southern and eastern suburbs. A few localized
locations may see additional amounts nearing 2 feet.

[BuffaloWeather]

Man we got smoked overnight 18" in 9 hours.

[ayuud11]

Can't make this shit up why did the band get weak?

[Thinksnow18]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Off Lake Erie...

A band of heavy snow is focused from near Dunkirk across much of
southern and central Erie County to near Batavia early this morning.
The band will remain in this area through about daybreak, then drift
north and focus right over the heart of the Buffalo Metro area into
northwest Genesee County from mid morning to mid afternoon. The
northern edge of the band will get as far north as North Buffalo and
the southern portions of Amherst and Clarence for at least a few
hours during this time. Snowfall rates will maintain at 2-3 inches
per hour in the most intense portion of this band through early
afternoon.

Boundary layer flow will veer more to the WSW during the mid to late
afternoon, pushing the lake effect snow back south across the
southtowns, ending up back along the Lake Erie shore to southern
Erie County by this evening. Inversion heights begin to lower by
late afternoon and early evening, and shear increases somewhat. Even
so, a favorable environment below the inversion will still maintain
accumulating lake effect snow tonight. With this in mind, converted
the Winter Storm Warning to a Lake Effect Snow Warning for southern
Erie, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus counties and extended it through most
of tonight.

Lake effect snow will weaken later tonight and end quickly Sunday
morning as inversion heights lower dramatically as warm advection
begins aloft.

Additional accumulations of 12-18 inches are expected today through
tonight from far northern Chautauqua/far northwest Cattaraugus
counties into southern and central Erie County, far western Wyoming,
and western Genesee counties. This includes much of the City of
Buffalo, immediate southern and eastern suburbs. A few localized
locations may see additional amounts nearing 2 feet.

If the band can drift even 1 maybe 2 miles north I think I’d be in the 2”/ returns, dev won’t have to chase then...

[wolfie09]

Lake effect snow was slow to organize overnight, but that has
changed now as convergence increases just ahead of the trough. An
intensifying band of lake effect snow over Watertown early this
morning will swing rapidly south across Watertown, ending up across
the central Tug Hill later this morning as boundary layer flow
briefly veers westerly. Snowfall rates will increase to 2-3 inches
per hour during this time.

Boundary layer flow will then back to the southwest again this
afternoon, carrying heavy lake effect snow back to central Jefferson
County from Watertown down the Route 3 corridor. Boundary layer flow
will then again veer westerly this evening, pushing heavy lake
effect snow back south to the Tug Hill Plateau. Snowfall rates will
continue at 2-3 inches per hour in the heaviest portion of this band
through much of the night.

Additional accumulations of 10-16 inches appear likely across much
of central and southern Jefferson County and northern Oswego County
today through tonight from several rounds of heavy snow. The
greatest accumulations will be found across the central and northern
Tug Hill where the band interacts with terrain, expect 2-3 feet of
accumulation near the triple point of Jefferson/Oswego/Lewis
counties.

The lake snow will continue through early Sunday morning, then
rapidly weaken and move north across Jefferson County from mid
morning to midday as boundary layer flow backs to the SSW and
inversion heights quickly lower

[Thinksnow18]

2 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Can't make this shit up why did the band get weak?

I noticed that in radar...I think there’s something shearing it a bit...notice towards the northern part of the band it’s not laser fine

[Thinksnow18]

Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

I noticed that in radar...I think there’s something shearing it a bit...notice towards the northern part of the band it’s not laser fine

 

4 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Can't make this shit up why did the band get weak?

Baglini just explained why it’s weakening a bit ha says it’s just reloading as the winds realign, that shift “should” push that band a bit further north by mid morning 

[BuffaloWeather]

That Ontario band is cranking. Erie is helping feed that thing too. 3-4” rates easy 

[ayuud11]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That Ontario band is cranking. Erie is helping feed that thing too. 3-4” rates easy 

Damm Watertown getting smoked atm..

[ayuud11]

14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

 

Baglini just explained why it’s weakening a bit ha says it’s just reloading as the winds realign, that shift “should” push that band a bit further north by mid morning 

I hope so bro i was right in the heart of that band till it stopped snowing suddenly lol between last night and the predawn hours we got maybe couple of inches of new snow.

[Thinksnow18]

11 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

I hope so bro i was right in the heart of that band till it stopped snowing suddenly lol between last night and the predawn hours we got maybe couple of inches of new snow.

Yeah I’m hopeful too still riding the northern most fringe and it’s very light snow right now, but you can see the band shifting ever so slightly north the past few frames...hopefully it gets its act together in the next hour or 2...I’ve picked up about an inch overnight

[Thinksnow18]

For perspective on exactly how fine a line I’m living right now? I just left my neighborhood to go get coffee at tops on maple and transit. It is not snowing by the maple end of my neighborhood, it is snowing at the south end...I’m right in the middle...just one damn mile swill get me into that convergence zone...