BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Don paul commented too Even within the super fine tuning it becomes a very close call for North Buffalo versus South Buffalo, or even a brush with Kenmore and a part of Tonawanda. One run of the 3 km NAM even had it briefly brushing at least the southern part of Amherst for a few hours late Saturday morning. Oh well, at least the synoptic part of the storm worked out very well for the 8 WNY counties. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Don paul commented too Even within the super fine tuning it becomes a very close call for North Buffalo versus South Buffalo, or even a brush with Kenmore and a part of Tonawanda. One run of the 3 km NAM even had it briefly brushing at least the southern part of Amherst for a few hours late Saturday morning. Oh well, at least the synoptic part of the storm worked out very well for the 8 WNY counties. To me it sounds like Williamsville would be part of the airport area. Kenmore and that part of north Buffalo, west Amherst and Tonawanda would be too far NW. also when niziol poonts out he does say 245 to 265...245-250 is pretty much what gets it done here so now we wait Dev... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Here she comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here she comes What’s with the second band out over the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: What’s with the second band out over the lake? Should dissipate and the one south of that should take over as the primary band going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Models have been putting over 3' of snow over the tug last few runs. I think north redfield sees 40" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Man, BUF really cashed in this Christmas. Amazing the difference 60 miles makes. Let’s go guys! I want to see pics! Anyone chasing? I know Delta wanted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 45 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Should dissipate and the one south of that should take over as the primary band going forward. It does appear a second weaker band is forming, I’ve seen this before...could consolidate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 New map.. Jumped up a full inch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: New map.. Jumped up a full inch lol Yeah I was about to post this. For WNY, this went from a major event with a strong chance of significant residence time in the Buffalo metro to a mediocre LES event mostly limited to southern Erie County that would probably merit two stars out of five — at best — on the KBUF storm summary. Getting five inches of paste just in time for Christmas morning was nice, but I’m just about ready to move on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, WNash said: Yeah I was about to post this. For WNY, this went from a major event with a strong chance of significant residence time in the Buffalo metro to a mediocre LES event that would probably merit two stars out of five — at best — on the KBUF storm summary. Getting five inches of paste just in time for Christmas morning was nice, but I’m just about ready to move on. Yeah losing some hope off Erie. Still that’s why I love it... You never really know what’s exactly gonna happen and there’s always the chance for a surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 She’s off and kicking... Gotta start seeing a shift north in next few hours or we’re just gonna end up with a sweeper that dumps 3-4” on its trip north and then another 2-3” in its way back south. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 545 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 NYZ012-019-020-085-260030- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-Wyoming- 545 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 ...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND CENTRAL CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES... At 540 PM EST, a band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates around an inch per hour is located from near Ripley to South Dayton to Arcade on the southern flank, and from near Angola to Hamburg to East Aurora on the northern flank. This band of snow will remain nearly stationary this evening. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect snow creating blowing snow. A rumble of thunder is also possible within the most intense portion of the band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 That has been the theme over the last several years though.. 4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: She’s off and kicking... Gotta start seeing a shift north in next few hours or we’re just gonna end up with a sweeper that dumps 3-4” on its trip north and then another 2-3” in its way back south. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 545 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 NYZ012-019-020-085-260030- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-Wyoming- 545 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 ...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND CENTRAL CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES... At 540 PM EST, a band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates around an inch per hour is located from near Ripley to South Dayton to Arcade on the southern flank, and from near Angola to Hamburg to East Aurora on the northern flank. This band of snow will remain nearly stationary this evening. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect snow creating blowing snow. A rumble of thunder is also possible within the most intense portion of the band of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Yep weaksauce. This event is toast for the city and Northtowns. At least we got over 5 inches last night to have a nice white Christmas and it’s more than our friends to our east could say. Maybe someone in the Boston Hills gets a foot but I’m not impressed anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 Heavy snow in colden. Band should start moving slowly north next few hours into the overnight. Wasn’t predicted to be near Buffalo until around noon tomorrow. Not sure what you guys expected. Whatever it was, it wasn’t modeled. Just hope the models were wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 the amount of bi-polar here is truly mind boggling when it comes to snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Heavy snow in colden. Band should start moving slowly north next few hours into the overnight. Wasn’t predicted to be near Buffalo until around noon tomorrow. Not sure what you guys expected. Whatever it was, it wasn’t modeled. Just hope the models were wrong. Then why did the lake effect snow warning go into effect at noon today? Seems silly if nothing is expected for 24 more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Then why did the lake effect snow warning go into effect at noon today? Seems silly if nothing is expected for 24 more hours. Agreed. To me they really didn’t have a handle on timing or position of the band. If we don’t score on this one there’s always the New Year’s Eve replica storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Yeah at first buffalo was calling for a SW flow this evening with 2" an hour rates because that's what guidance showed, unfortunately things change quick when it comes to lake effect.. Time for nowcasting anyway lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah at first buffalo was calling for a SW flow this evening with 2" an hour rates because that's what guidance showed, unfortunately things change quick when it comes to lake effect.. Time for nowcasting anyway lol Where? This is the forecast discussion from this afternoon. No mention of SW winds. SW winds haven't showed up in models in 3 days. Erie Northwest flow this morning will back to the west by midday, allowing multiple bands to develop from northeast Ohio into the western Southern Tier of NY, with some upslope enhancement along the Chautauqua Ridge. This will remain the mode of lake effect through mid to late afternoon. By early this evening boundary layer flow will be backing to the WSW, which will allow for a single band to consolidate along the Lake Erie shore of Chautauqua County into southern Erie County. This band will then move north towards the Buffalo southtowns and southwest Genesee County by late evening as boundary layer flow continues to back to the southwest. Some high- res guidance suggests a brief southward drift back into southern Erie, western Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties after midnight before the band moves back north to Buffalo again by Saturday morning. The band will reach its northern-most point late morning to early afternoon Saturday into the city of Buffalo and even the nearby northern suburbs before starting to drift back south across the southtowns late in the afternoon. Lowering inversion heights, decreasing moisture, and increasing shear will allow the band to weaken during the afternoon. Snowfall rates will occasionally reach 2 inches per hour in this band of lake effect snow from this evening through midday Saturday. Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are still likely where the band persists the longest from western Chautauqua County, the northwest corner of Cattaraugus County, into southern and central Erie County including South Buffalo and the densely populated nearby southtowns. 6-12 inches are possible from downtown to the airport and the nearby northtowns if the band makes it that far north Saturday, with a very sharp drop off in accumulations heading northward through the northtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I went from 30" to almost nothing twice the year Matt lived up here (lol) and that was overnight haha.. I'm pretty sure Wxwatcher came up for one of those events and jinxed pulaski (), he had to head to watertown to see snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Where? This is the forecast discussion from this afternoon Erie Northwest flow this morning will back to the west by midday, allowing multiple bands to develop from northeast Ohio into the western Southern Tier of NY, with some upslope enhancement along the Chautauqua Ridge. This will remain the mode of lake effect through mid to late afternoon. By early this evening boundary layer flow will be backing to the WSW, which will allow for a single band to consolidate along the Lake Erie shore of Chautauqua County into southern Erie County. This band will then move north towards the Buffalo southtowns and southwest Genesee County by late evening as boundary layer flow continues to back to the southwest. Some high- res guidance suggests a brief southward drift back into southern Erie, western Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties after midnight before the band moves back north to Buffalo again by Saturday morning. The band will reach its northern-most point late morning to early afternoon Saturday into the city of Buffalo and even the nearby northern suburbs before starting to drift back south across the southtowns late in the afternoon. Lowering inversion heights, decreasing moisture, and increasing shear will allow the band to weaken during the afternoon. Snowfall rates will occasionally reach 2 inches per hour in this band of lake effect snow from this evening through midday Saturday. Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are still likely where the band persists the longest from western Chautauqua County, the northwest corner of Cattaraugus County, into southern and central Erie County including South Buffalo and the densely populated nearby southtowns. 6-12 inches are possible from downtown to the airport and the nearby northtowns if the band makes it that far north Saturday, with a very sharp drop off in accumulations heading northward through the northtowns. Do you really want me to go back and get the previous discussion? Lol When they started putting watches out.. You posted it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 Band is lifting north as we speak, a few miles from my house now. The only part that surprises me is how sheared it looks due to high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Do you really want me to go back and get the previous discussion? Lol When they started putting watches out.. You posted it lol Yeah go ahead. Band wasn't supposed to be over Buffalo until tomorrow, not tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 On 12/23/2020 at 9:55 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Not sure if posted yet, updated FD from KBUF ...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Christmas through December 26... For Friday morning, there should be a brief transition from ending synoptic snow moving into Central NY and developing lake effect snow developing on a WSW flow over the lakes. The coldest aloft will still be upstream and poised to move overhead later Friday afternoon. So there may be a period Friday morning with a meager lake response before a full-blown lake response takes hold. As a result, there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty to both the start time and placement of lake effect snow. East of Lake Erie...some models move the band well into the Northtowns while others place it toward Metro Buffalo Friday afternoon. Regardless, the coldest airmass should pass overhead Friday evening and mark the period for the heaviest and most intense lake effect snow, where 2"/hr and thundersnow will be a possibility into Friday night as the band settles a little to the south overnight. East of Lake Ontario...a similar transition period is expected, with widespread snow tapering off Friday morning...followed with a lake response Friday afternoon. The most intense period should be Friday night and well into Saturday. Similar to Lake Erie however, there`s still uncertainty placement at this point through Saturday. The best chance will probably be over/north of the Tug Hill Plateau. Then another shortwave trough will move across the St Lawrence valley and should push the band south over and eventually south of the Tug Hill Plateau. With concerns noted above, the watch will stand for now until there`s more confidence in timing and placement along with corresponding snow amounts. Here is from a few days ago. Seems like they were not sure as multiple models had different wind directions. Euro never went SW only W/WSW. Kind of states that in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 Tom Niziol on Facebook: Snowband is pasting southern Erie county now as well as Wyoming county. I am guessing snowfa;l rates of 2+ inches per hour. Send reports !! I am thinking it still mobves right to the edge of Buffalo as the night progresses then meanders south and north once again tomorrow before heading to the Southern Tier later Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 That band is consolidating into a pretty thick band. Going to run from the city all the way to Eden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Do you really want me to go back and get the previous discussion? Lol When they started putting watches out.. You posted it lol The thing is with watches. Northern Erie county is quite a distance. West Seneca is included in Northern Erie county and so is Tonawanda. They don't issue watches by city or town. West Seneca is going to get hit tonight, Tonawanda isn't. Its the same with southern Erie County. Orchard Park/Hamburg are considered Southern Erie county. You know how many times lake snow warnings are in effect for my area and I get nothing, about 70% of the time. It's not KBUFS fault, it's just how they generalize forecasting. Ideally they should seperate Erie county into 4 sections. Northtowns/City/Southtowns/Hills to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 . East of Lake Erie...some models move the band well into the Northtowns while others place it toward Metro Buffalo Friday afternoon. Regardless, the coldest airmass should pass overhead Friday evening and mark the period for the heaviest and most intense lake effect snow, where 2"/hr and thundersnow will be a possibility into Friday night as the band settles a little to the south overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Gfs had LES into buffalo by 18z today just a couple days ago.. Same for NAM products.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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