Major LES event-December 24-27

[wolfie09]

This band tomorrow will be the main show off Ontario, wether it stays in place for a little is yet tbd lol Probably 2"-3" an hour stuff..Hrrr keeps it in place for like 8 hours, dumping a couple feet near the southern tug..

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

This band tomorrow will be the main show off Ontario, wether it stays in place for a little is yet tbd lol Probably 2"-3" an hour stuff..Hrrr keeps it in place for like 8 hours, dumping a couple feet near the southern tug..

Right on @TugHillMatt old place.

[wolfie09]

Only using for trends (even global models can be useful lol)

You can see the"heaviest" shifted south (expanded) as well as the southern fringes..

[WNash]

14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Only using for trends (even global models can be useful lol)

You can see the"heaviest" shifted south (expanded) as well as the southern fringes..

Regression to the mean axis. One of these years we’ll get another long-duration event for the metro & near northtowns.

[Thinksnow18]

7 minutes ago, WNash said:

Regression to the mean axis. One of these years we’ll get another long-duration event for the metro & near northtowns.

Where do you live W? Amherst? I think anyone south of that line scores tomorrow am... anywhere north of that good luck.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Nice bands firing up into NE Ohio.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Feel pretty confident bands will go farther north than modeled with lake temps in low/mid 40s with convergent winds. I think the northern fringes of the band will experience the highest snowfall rates. (speaking for lake erie only)

[Thinksnow18]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Feel pretty confident bands will go farther north than modeled with lake temps in low/mid 40s with convergent winds. I think the northern fringes of the band will experience the highest snowfall rates. (speaking for lake erie only)

I’m pretty much walking a high wire nick Walenda wouldn’t...I hope you’re right because that is correct...that convergence zone can have crushing rates 

[lakeeffectkid383]

3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m pretty much walking a high wire nick Walenda wouldn’t...I hope you’re right because that is correct...that convergence zone can have crushing rates 

Where in Williamsville are you located? What’s your nearest intersection? Just trying to get reference of where you are because Williamsville is pretty large. 

[Thinksnow18]

Far East Williamsville...about 4 blocks from transit off Maple. I’m a driver and a 5 iron from Lowe’s plaza...that is with about a 1/4 mile toll and a 50mph wind at my back..

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Feel pretty confident bands will go farther north than modeled with lake temps in low/mid 40s with convergent winds. I think the northern fringes of the band will experience the highest snowfall rates. (speaking for lake erie only)

It’s gonna be close... but it’s always close like this.  We’re talking a 5 mile jog making or breaking the hopes of the north town boys.  Just going to have to wait and see just where she goes.  I’m still feeling a Dec 2010 replay could be on tap.  

[Thinksnow18]

4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

It’s gonna be close... but it’s always close like this.  We’re talking a 5 mile jog making or breaking the hopes of the north town boys.  Just going to have to wait and see just where she goes.  I’m still feeling a Dec 2010 replay could be on tap.  

Ughhhh

[BuffaloWeather]

Erie

Northwest flow this morning will back to the west by midday,
allowing multiple bands to develop from northeast Ohio into the
western Southern Tier of NY, with some upslope enhancement along the
Chautauqua Ridge. This will remain the mode of lake effect through
mid to late afternoon. By early this evening boundary layer flow
will be backing to the WSW, which will allow for a single band to
consolidate along the Lake Erie shore of Chautauqua County into
southern Erie County. This band will then move north towards the
Buffalo southtowns and southwest Genesee County by late evening as
boundary layer flow continues to back to the southwest. Some high-
res guidance suggests a brief southward drift back into southern
Erie, western Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties after midnight before
the band moves back north to Buffalo again by Saturday morning. The
band will reach its northern-most point late morning to early
afternoon Saturday into the city of Buffalo and even the nearby
northern suburbs before starting to drift back south across the
southtowns late in the afternoon. Lowering inversion heights,
decreasing moisture, and increasing shear will allow the band to
weaken during the afternoon.

Snowfall rates will occasionally reach 2 inches per hour in this
band of lake effect snow from this evening through midday Saturday.
Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are still likely where the band
persists the longest from western Chautauqua County, the northwest
corner of Cattaraugus County, into southern and central Erie County
including South Buffalo and the densely populated nearby southtowns.
6-12 inches are possible from downtown to the airport and the nearby
northtowns if the band makes it that far north Saturday, with a very
sharp drop off in accumulations heading northward through the
northtowns.

Ontario

Expect a band of snow to organize very late this afternoon or
evening across northern Jefferson County. The band of snow will
remain between Watertown and the Saint Lawrence River through most
of tonight on 220-230 flow. A surface trough will then pass over the
east end of Lake Ontario Saturday morning and veer flow to the WSW
or even W briefly, pushing an intensifying band of snow south to the
central and northern Tug Hill region. The band will then drift a
little north again Saturday afternoon to Watertown and the far
northern Tug Hill Plateau.

Snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour are likely on Saturday when
convergence increases along and just behind the trough passage.
Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are expected from the central
and northern Tug Hill to near Watertown, with 6-10 inches possible
even across far northern Jefferson County given how backed the flow
is initially tonight.

Finally, winds will increase tonight through Saturday with blowing
and drifting snow in and near the lake effect bands.

[BuffaloWeather]

I believe that is the start of the lake band

[BuffaloWeather]

Can see the mid level rotation here

https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=CASET

[lakeeffectkid383]

29 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Far East Williamsville...about 4 blocks from transit off Maple. I’m a driver and a 5 iron from Lowe’s plaza...that is with about a 1/4 mile toll and a 50mph wind at my back..

Where I do all of my shopping on Transit lol. Crazy how built up it is there in the last few years. So your pretty far North and East in Williamsville. We likely have the same chance of getting in the band as opposed to if you were in south east Williamsville near Lancaster. 

[Thinksnow18]

24 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Where I do all of my shopping on Transit lol. Crazy how built up it is there in the last few years. So your pretty far North and East in Williamsville. We likely have the same chance of getting in the band as opposed to if you were in south east Williamsville near Lancaster. 

Sort of...i can get the tail end of the band a lot of times when it curves a bit but yeah it’s gonna be tight.I’m one block south of the red dot on the map...about 3 miles from the 90. Like I said it’s going to be very tight but I think both D and I score at least a couple hours of +SN tomorrow...BW you’re in the jackpot zone

[Thinksnow18]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Can see the mid level rotation here

https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=CASET

Is that feature going to be stationary or move westward a bit? I find it hard to believe it will be in the same spot tomorrow am...

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Sort of...i can get the tail end of the band a lot of times when it curves a bit but yeah it’s gonna be tight.

You're in a good spot for the Huron/Ontario NW flow connections.

[Thinksnow18]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You're in a good spot for the Huron/Ontario NW flow connections.

Yep...in fact I often laugh when I get the edge of that band that’s NEVER forecast by any models...always underdone.

[wolfie09]

If you look at the HRRR and WRF models there is a strong SW band off Ontario overnight before the band drops south but for whatever reason the flow off Erie is different..

I'm guessing it's due to the exact low position..You have NW on the backside and SW out ahead..

[Thinksnow18]

58 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I believe that is the start of the lake band

That’s much further north than anticipated 

[wolfie09]

Hi rez Canadian is a pretty good crush job especially to my north at 10-1..I'll be riding that southern fringe most of the event..

[lakeeffectkid383]

24 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That’s much further north than anticipated 

That’s not the lake band. The lake band is just now starting to set up unorganized in Chaut/Catt/Srn Erie.

[wolfie09]

Here it is zoomed in lol

Talkin a foot at 10-1 about 1 mile north of pulaski and maybe a couple/few inches 2 miles to the south..lol

[wolfie09]

It's funny how kbuf uses the"high end" for buffalo but near the"low end" for pulaski..

How can you have expected snow 14" but then a 1 in 10 chance of higher then 14" lol

[ayuud11]

25 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

That’s not the lake band. The lake band is just now starting to set up unorganized in Chaut/Catt/Srn Erie.

Yes from the looks of it they won’t be any action till Later this evening..

[WNash]

3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Where do you live W? Amherst? I think anyone south of that line scores tomorrow am... anywhere north of that good luck.

Near UB South Campus. When I can get onto the roof, I’ll be putting up my Weatherflow Tempest and share the wunderground ID here. We’re basically a little over three miles due west from the NWS office at the airport. Thankfully we’re not far enough west to completely lose a lake connection. Basically if a band moves north enough to hit Snyder or the western edge of the village of Williamsville, then we are under it. My older neighbors said that they got hit hard in 1985, 2001, and the October storm, so a sustained lake storm is possible but rare.

[BuffaloWeather]

Moderate/heavy snow Chestnut Ridge 

[BuffaloWeather]

The master of lake effect himself Tom niziol

Merry Christmas everyone, been off the grid, literally for the past 2 days withut power. Back now!! 

 I decided to use BUFKIT to predict our lake effect snow event tonight through Saturday. I am looking at the band setting up tonight right up to the city, then moving down tot he Southtowns tonight, another quick jaunt up toward the city tomorrow morning, then swings back through the Southtowns and to the Southern Tier tomorrow night.  All of this from BUFKIT, it's a mazing what you can pull frok the data, that was the basis behind BUFKIT we developed so many years ago. Parts of the SOuthtowns could see 1-2 ft. of snow. 

In this display, I have plotted CAPE, Equilibrium Level and the average wind direction up through 700mb.  That wind direction can be used to fine tune the location of snowbands. Now ASSUMING the model is correct, you see the detailed forecast I gave in the above paragraph. But as we all know these high resolution models CAN produce highly detailed, yet inaccurate, forecasts. So, the final word is be ready for a narrow band of heavy lake-effect snow. Hunker down, do not try driving the Thruway tonight from Buffalo to the state line. Do not try driving Rte 219 south of Buffalo. DO stay home and enjoy Christmas safely.