wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, Geez150 said: What is the time frame for that wolfie? Looks like it won't start off Ontario until early sat morning, lasting until Sunday morning..Wind direction is going to be a challenge (when isn't it lol) especially if the band moves around a lot.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Gfs mainly WSW off Ontario.. Now casting here we come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 KBUF trying to hint something? Noticed a few darker specks around the metro earlier... Now the most recent map has a decent sized area of these specks... Either the map has chicken pox or they are trying to sprinkle in some 24” Lolli’s...??? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Long long range HRRR solid for the pulaski area with several inches by sat morning with the initial band.. We'll see how it trends over the next day or two as we get closer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Some of the SR models are dropping the band south much quicker than the NWS says.. flakes. Expect LES snowbands to remain across Jefferson/Lewis counties and the northern Tug Saturday morning, before shifting more to the east of the Lake across central/southern Jefferson, far northern Oswego and central Lewis counties Saturday afternoon and evening as winds become more westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Same can be said at the end of the HI rez Canadian, at least we are starting to get into range (off Ontario)lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Kbuf increased totals over my place 24-30 across south towns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Afternoon project to kill an hour... Now we wait... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 18z rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: 18z rgem.. That gets the whole northern part of Erie county 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 My god the “d” team is on the local channels today....both show their in-house models with the band well south of Buffalo Friday night and when it comes north it hugs the shoreline...they need to get rid of these models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Kbuf increased totals over my place 24-30 across south towns I’ll still take 12-18 and still bump this 5 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Afternoon project to kill an hour... Now we wait... Love the effort Steve!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I wish I lived in a place where I needed a snow board like that. Probably..... Overkill.... But hey can’t measure 48” of snow with a 36” stick! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Probably..... Overkill.... But hey can’t measure 48” of snow with a 36” stick! I would have stopped at 6 inches. 3 1/2 inches is our greatest snowfall this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I would have stopped at 6 inches. 3 1/2 inches is our greatest snowfall this winter so far. Pulaski has 3" all "winter" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 39 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Probably..... Overkill.... But hey can’t measure 48” of snow with a 36” stick! haha, thats the spirit! And if thats a total snow on the ground snowboard; then its honestly in one of the few populated places in this country where you could legitimately hit that number (someday). If its a 24 hours or less incremental board, then yes, a little bit of overkill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Even got the table on the deck ready for a photo op for you guys. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 My Point and click just updated to 1-2 inches tonight. Wonder what KBuf based that on? Thats a huge shift and contrary to the 18z runs. Is it the Christmas miracle that vortmax has been talking about??!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 That's 17-31" Tonight Snow. Low around 27. Northwest wind 6 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Christmas Day Snow. High near 29. West wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 21. Southwest wind 15 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. West wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday A chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: My Point and click just updated to 1-2 inches tonight. Wonder what KBuf based that on? Thats a huge shift and contrary to the 18z runs. Is it the Christmas miracle that vortmax has been talking about??!! Are you chasing this weekend? Can always stop by my place for the night if you want. You have to sleep on the couch though. Didn't buy an extra bed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Nice little bump up for pulaski from 10" to 16".. We'll see lol I think the band will be moving a lot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Are you chasing this weekend? Can always stop by my place for the night if you want. You have to sleep on the couch though. Didn't buy an extra bed yet. I'll be playing things by ear. If there was an incredible band tomorrow I might head out in the afternoon, but not sure how far I would drive to get to it. Someday when things are more normal I might take you up on that place to crash if things ever got real dicey while I was out there. If I don't go tomorrow, I might take a drive very early Saturday morning...once again this would be contingent on band placement and intensity. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 I just realized I posted my stupid point and click forecast in this thread instead of the other one. ooops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Yea lets wait and see how that band sets up late tomorrow afternoon into evening before we all get too excited about this lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 30 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Yea lets wait and see how that band sets up late tomorrow afternoon into evening before we all get too excited about this lol Well if the storm shifted west it can only help the lake band come further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Rgem pretty much looks like the NWS forecast for L Ontario.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Quote Off Lake Erie... Northwest flow early this morning will back to the west by late morning or midday, allowing multiple bands to develop from northeast Ohio into the western Southern Tier of NY, with some upslope enhancement along the Chautauqua Ridge. This will remain the mode of lake effect through mid to late afternoon. By early this evening boundary layer flow will be backing to the WSW, which will allow for a single band to consolidate along the Lake Erie shore of Chautauqua County into southern Erie County. This band will then move north towards the Buffalo southtowns and southwest Genesee County by late evening as boundary layer flow continues to back to the southwest. Some high-res guidance suggests a brief southward drift back into southern Erie, western Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties after midnight before the band moves back north to Buffalo again by Saturday morning. The band will reach its northern-most point late morning to early afternoon Saturday into the city of Buffalo and even the nearby northern suburbs before starting to drift back south across the southtowns late in the afternoon. Lowering inversion heights, decreasing moisture, and increasing shear will allow the band to weaken during the afternoon. Snowfall rates will occasionally reach 2 inches per hour in this band of lake effect snow from this evening through midday Saturday. Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are still likely where the band persists the longest from western Chautauqua County, the northwest corner of Cattaraugus County, into southern and central Erie County including South Buffalo and the densely populated nearby southtowns. 6-12 inches are possible from downtown to the airport and the nearby northtowns if the band makes it that far north Saturday, with a very sharp drop off in accumulations heading northward through the northtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 hour ago, ayuud11 said: Yeah this has me concerned a bit. Now I’m hoping the proverbial 5 mile shift takes place and it gets into the north towns for a bit, but we’ll have to wait and see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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