WNash Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I think that was the storm he gave up early on and went to bed and missed the band camping out over SB WS. We had 3-4”/hr rates. My mother in law lives in Gardenville and even not counting November 2014, they’ve had several long duration events since I moved to the area in 2012. I think this is case of the grass being greener on the other side. WS has had maybe half of the big events in Hamburg, and a quarter of the big events in Springville, but areas further north from WS haven’t seen anything close to what WS has gotten. Naturally, the further you get from the axis of the most common wind direction, the less chances you’ll have for lake effect. Nobody is due anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I think that was the storm he gave up early on and went to bed and missed the band camping out over SB WS. We had 3-4”/hr rates. Yes that’s the one! 06z 3k NAM looks awesome and still parked over BUF at hr 60. New BUF forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Yes that’s the one! 06z 3k NAM looks awesome and still parked over BUF at hr 60. New BUF forecast. I love how these totals are going up! 16 at KBUF?! Even if that means 13” here no complaints...my point and and click has heavy snow Friday night and Saturday am before 1pm...looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Rgem vs NAM is like night and day for my back yard.. I expect the heaviest to be just to my north which is ok but I don't expect to get almost nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Have fun with new buffalo radar. Thing is unusable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Another bump up from KBUF... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 European is pretty much a dumb down version of the rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 22 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Another bump up from KBUF... And a further shift north...this could be pretty epic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Icon with the ADHD band lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon with the ADHD band lol I’ll take that. Its about the only model that brings the band this far south, even if it’s only a short time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 The best christmas gift Tonight Rain before 11pm, then snow and sleet between 11pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 28. West wind 10 to 14 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Christmas Day Snow before 8am, then snow showers likely between 8am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 29. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 8pm, then snow showers after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Saturday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Snow showers, mainly before 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday A chance of snow showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: The best christmas gift Tonight Rain before 11pm, then snow and sleet between 11pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 28. West wind 10 to 14 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Christmas Day Snow before 8am, then snow showers likely between 8am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 29. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 8pm, then snow showers after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Saturday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Snow showers, mainly before 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday A chance of snow showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50% That’s 20 at the high end before Saturday!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: That’s 20 at the high end before Saturday!!!! Look at those wind gusts too, going to be blizzard like conditions at times. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 NWS Update: Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Friday Night Through Saturday Night off Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie...Friday night still appears to be the period for heaviest lake effect snow off of Lake Erie, as there will be plenty of lingering synoptic moisture to aid the lake response. DGZ will be saturated, which will produce large dendritic flakes. Fairly well aligned low level flow will become southwesterly, shifting the lake band northward through the night. This will shift the main focus from southern Erie and Wyoming counties during the first half of the night, north into central Erie (including Metro Buffalo and the Southtowns), southwestern Genesee and northwestern Wyoming counties for the second half of the night. Snowfall rates may reach up to 2"/hr at times in the heart of the band and there may be some thundersnow. Winds gusting to 35 MPH will also cause significant blowing and drifting snow. Saturday morning, the band will shift a bit further north, mainly impacting northern Erie and western Genesee Counties. This may possibly bring a burst of snow (several inches) to the Northtowns, while Metro Buffalo remains in the heart of the band. Saturday afternoon, synoptic moisture gets stripped away and inversion heights begin to drop. Band may produce a couple more inches before pushing south and weakening Saturday night as drier air starts to build in. Winter Storm and Lake Effect Snow Warnings remain in place through Saturday. Off Lake Ontario...now appears that there will be a pretty good lull in the action before lake effect activity gets cranking here. Thus the Winter Storm Watch start time has been pushed back by 18 hours and will now be in effect from 7 PM Friday night through 7 AM Sunday. That said, lake effect snow should get cranking Friday night east-northeast and northeast of Lake Ontario, mainly impacting Jefferson (metro Watertown) and northern Lewis counties, including the northern Tug. Saturday will likely see the heaviest lake snows for this event with up to 1-2"/hr possible at times, owed to additional synoptic moisture to work with and a saturated DGZ producing large dendritic flakes. Expect LES snowbands to remain across Jefferson/Lewis counties and the northern Tug Saturday morning, before shifting more to the east of the Lake across central/southern Jefferson, far northern Oswego and central Lewis counties Saturday afternoon and evening as winds become more westerly. Winds gusting 30-35 MPH will also cause significant blowing and drifting snow. Bands will will begin to weaken and shift south later Saturday night as drier air filters in and inversion heights come down. Headline will remain a Winter Storm Watch here as some uncertainty remains in the evolution and placement of the heaviest snow bands. Sunday morning there may be a quick spray of lighter lake effect snow showers from south to north off both lakes before completely shutting down by Sunday afternoon as a warmer, southerly flow ensues at the surface and aloft. Highs will be in the upper teens and 20s Saturday. It will be a bit warmer Sunday under a warm air advection regime ahead of the next system approaching from the west. Highs will mainly be in the low to mid 30s, with some upper 20s across the Tug Hill and western Dacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 12z 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 12z 3k NAM I have no words 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 I just want ya'll to remember I said 1-2' across most of Erie county when things were looking pretty grim a few days ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 If I squint is that a sliver of 24-30" along the lakeshore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 The winds are going to drift that all to us anyways. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Look at lake Michigan firing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 I figured out how to create a timelapse with my nest cam. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 lake temps in the lowers 40s with 850s in the -13 to -15 range should create snowfall rates near 3" per hour in best bands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Look at lake Michigan firing Wow...that is straight SW winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: If I squint is that a sliver of 24-30" along the lakeshore? I’m right in the 18” to 24” line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 My cam link for anyone interested https://video.nest.com/live/7Lel0fR0Ox 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 some mid 40s lake temps still showing up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Winds at Grand Rapids Michigan are still out of the SW and the lake effect is still firing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Can't speak for ERIE but the European models continue to show this as mainly a westerly event off Ontario..It all comes down to exact track..Still a while away before we can turn to meso models off Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 What is the time frame for that wolfie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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