Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Ohhh!!! So much nicer in high def! That shows exactly what the NWS is saying how the band starts south of metro and lifts north by nightfall...that is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Ohhh!!! So much nicer in high def! Looks so weird to see those bands off Huron on a NW flow and BUF on a SW flow. I guess that’s where that convergence comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looks so weird to see those bands off Huron on a NW flow and BUF on a SW flow. I guess that’s where that convergence comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Fwiw Channel 4 changed their forecast. 6-12 inches Northtowns. 12-18” Southtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Pretty much KBUFs map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 ICON... Floats a nice band back and forth across the south towns and metro. Output is almost identical to KBUF map from tonight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty much KBUFs map That's not the entire event off Ontario as most guidance has it ending between 12z-18z Sunday.. Rgem has a healthy looking band Sunday morning..(Granted in its long range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 RGEM follows suit and locks in over metro and south-towns for hours. Don’t think it’s pushing that band far enough inland... 2’ sweet spot right over BWs head! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 GFS looks the same or even a bit better for lake effect. 18z vs 00z comparison @ 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That's not the entire event off Ontario as most guidance has it ending between 12z-18z Sunday.. Rgem has a healthy looking band Sunday morning..(Granted in its long range) Yeah sorry was just talking off of Erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: RGEM follows suit and locks in over metro and south-towns for hours. Don’t think it’s pushing that band far enough inland... 2’ sweet spot right over BWs head! A nice 26" bomb near my place with the band still going strong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 GFS... Same story... Welp I think it’s safe to say we have MODEL AGREEMENT! Crazy the models all match earlier KBUF map to a T! Might need to make a few bumps and tweaks to fine tune but I like how we looking right now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 GFS with 2' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GFS with 2' Lock it in ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 GFS gets the band into northtowns with very heavy rates 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS gets the band into northtowns with very heavy rates We’re living dangerous using the GFS for lake effect but damn it sure looks good. That’s just like your call from a couple days ago. 1’+ for all of Erie County with a bullseye of 2’ + right over your head. I’d take that scenario in heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: We’re living dangerous using the GFS for lake effect but damn it sure looks good. That’s just like your call from a couple days ago. 1’+ for all of Erie County with a bullseye of 2’ + right over your head. I’d take that scenario in heartbeat. I still think it goes further north then expected. Lake temps are very warm, near record highs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I still think it goes further north then expected. Lake temps are very warm, near record highs. Watch that transition zone come in to play for the city haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Todd wasn’t working today I don’t think. He was calling for 8-14” County wide yesterday. Bagilini is working tonight and he definitley did call for 4-8” in the southtowns and 2-4” in the Northtowns as TS said. Really nitpicking at this point though. Still time for them to up it as the forecast evolves if necessary. My bad bro i watched it thru their website and thought that was today's forecast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, ayuud11 said: Watch that transition zone come in to play for the city haha Don’t you freaking dare! This storm could be a transition zone special! When we jackpot... WE JACKPOT! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Don’t you freaking dare! This storm could be a transition zone special! When we jackpot... WE JACKPOT! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 17 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: My bad bro i watched it thru their website and thought that was today's forecast lol. No worries lol I was just saying cause I watched it live and it definitely wasn’t Todd. I think channel 7 has the best mets now. Andy Parker is decent, Aaron Mentkowski is fantastic, Autumn Lynandowski is also decent and I’m not sure if Mike Randall is there anymore but he was/is really good too. Minus the new girl who just graduated and posted the 18z RPM model has channel 7s official forecast tonight haha. Todd and Mike Cejka are good Mets for channel 4 and Baglini is tolerable. Channel 2 has Maria Genero, lmfao what a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Enjoy guys! BUF gets slapped proper! You guys are due. The smucks in the rest of the state are expecting pics. Merry Christmas!!! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Nest cam going to get some real action this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Enjoy guys! BUF gets slapped proper! You guys are due. The smucks in the rest of the state are expecting pics. Merry Christmas!!! Thanks Dave. You’ll get yours too in time. After the inevitable January thaw that comes and wipes all of our pack out bad then we get some nice NW flow and you to SYR get a foot or more of arctic fluff while we dodge flurries in between the rays of sunshine! Haha. Really bummed this has to be a feast or famine event for Upstate and all of us can’t cash in. I’ll happy take pictures from my place in Amherst but I’m expecting the bulk to be to my south. I’ll be happy if we can pull off 8” here between synoptic and lake effect. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nest cam going to get some real action this weekend. You should do hourly updates on the hour so those who aren’t so lucky can log on and watch you report your current snowfall depth ect... lol JK. Seriously though if any area deserves to be jackpotted it’s WS and SB. I’ve never been so frustrated in my life when I lived in WS having the bands swing through so rapidly you could barely have enough time to go outside and get a video in it. The most maddening was the storm in January 19 when there was a SW flow with strong winds that split the band in two with one band Hammering OP/Hamburg just to the south and Amherst/Cheektowaga just to our north while we legit had sunshine peeking through the clouds. Like Steve said though on the rare occasion they do cash in they CASH IN! I think that area is where the convergence zone likes to set up with the WNW winds over the Niagara Peninsula and the shape of the Lake Erie shoreline. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: You should do hourly updates on the hour so those who aren’t so lucky can log on and watch you report your current snowfall depth ect... lol JK. Seriously though if any area deserves to be jackpotted it’s WS and SB. I’ve never been so frustrated in my life when I lived in WS having the bands swing through so rapidly you could barely have enough time to go outside and get a video in it. The most maddening was the storm in January 19 when there was a SW flow with strong winds that split the band in two with one band Hammering OP/Hamburg just to the south and Amherst/Cheektowaga just to our north while we legit had sunshine peeking through the clouds. Like Steve said though on the rare occasion they do cash in they CASH IN! I think that area is where the convergence zone likes to set up with the WNW winds over the Niagara Peninsula and the shape of the Lake Erie shoreline. I'll be off all weekend so my setup will be identical to Deltas. I have the snowboard and yard stick and 2 separate depth sticks one on my deck away from everything and one in my yard. And we're starting with no depth so it should be easy. Have you tried the timelapse tool with nest cam? Is that feature only available with the $12 per month package, if so I'm about to upgrade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Canadian is identical to the rest! Winds will be strong enough to push that band inland more. Great look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 24 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: You should do hourly updates on the hour so those who aren’t so lucky can log on and watch you report your current snowfall depth ect... lol JK. Seriously though if any area deserves to be jackpotted it’s WS and SB. I’ve never been so frustrated in my life when I lived in WS having the bands swing through so rapidly you could barely have enough time to go outside and get a video in it. The most maddening was the storm in January 19 when there was a SW flow with strong winds that split the band in two with one band Hammering OP/Hamburg just to the south and Amherst/Cheektowaga just to our north while we legit had sunshine peeking through the clouds. Like Steve said though on the rare occasion they do cash in they CASH IN! I think that area is where the convergence zone likes to set up with the WNW winds over the Niagara Peninsula and the shape of the Lake Erie shoreline. I remember that event, it was brutal to watch but didn't you catch up during the 2nd half with a 2" per band parked over your house overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I remember that event, it was brutal to watch but didn't you catch up during the 2nd half with a 2" per band parked over your house overnight? I think that was the storm he gave up early on and went to bed and missed the band camping out over SB WS. We had 3-4”/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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