wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 From Cleveland The average snow ratios used for accumulations was 18 to 1 which may be conservative. Not sure what ours would be.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM is huge hit. at 1:10 20" bullseye over my place. Kuch 26" Last frame still going strong I liked the RGEM run. Nice stall over central Erie for quite a while. Puts me right in the northern fringe of the band. Would rather be there than the southern fringe of a north towns band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So the local WIVB net has 4-8 for Hamburg north and 2-4 southern Niagara-far northern Erie... with a lake effect snow warning...where the NWS has 7-17...I want to become a meteorologist The warning was only issued 2 hours ago. These forecast graphics they have now were done hours ago. Maybe by 5 or 6pm news they will have updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I liked the RGEM run. Nice stall over central Erie for quite a while. Puts me right in the northern fringe of the band. Would rather be there than the southern fringe of a north towns band. Well...my guess is it makes it into the north towns fir at least 4 to 6 hours late evening on Christmas. That probably where myself and that lakeeffectkid get our shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Eries Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS Still weird how much synoptic it gives us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 18z GFS has that band over metro for about 10 hours late Friday into Saturday at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 50 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So the local WIVB net has 4-8 for Hamburg north and 2-4 southern Niagara-far northern Erie... with a lake effect snow warning...where the NWS has 7-17...I want to become a meteorologist Best part is their mesoscale models show the best Synoptic snow from the Southtowns to the north which is the exact opposite of where the they are showing the most falling lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Best part is their mesoscale models show the best Synoptic snow from the Southtowns to the north which is the exact opposite of where the they are showing the most falling lol. You can’t make this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: So the local WIVB net has 4-8 for Hamburg north and 2-4 southern Niagara-far northern Erie... with a lake effect snow warning...where the NWS has 7-17...I want to become a meteorologist You of all people should understand this difficulty in this scenario. You have access to every piece of data that they do. What's your call then?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I guess our confusion lies in the choice of model they’re using. The euro and GFS have warning criteria snowfall for pretty much most of WNY but the NAM and EURO have better setups for LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 It’s definitely a hard forecast to make for the public because just a few mile shift can make such a huge difference especially in this scenario. My thing is just why show a model that’s targeting northern areas and overlay the lowest totals there? It just doesn’t look right to me. No doubt they have a tough job ahead the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I don't see anything wrong with wivb's forecast i just watched Todd's 5pm forecast and he was calling for anywhere from 8-14" across Erie county which is inline to what the models and the NWS are calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: I don't see anything wrong with wivb's forecast i just watched Todd's 5pm forecast and he was calling for anywhere from 8-14" across Erie county which is inline to what the models and the NWS are calling for. Todd wasn’t working today I don’t think. He was calling for 8-14” County wide yesterday. Bagilini is working tonight and he definitley did call for 4-8” in the southtowns and 2-4” in the Northtowns as TS said. Really nitpicking at this point though. Still time for them to up it as the forecast evolves if necessary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 38 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Todd wasn’t working today I don’t think. He was calling for 8-14” County wide yesterday. Bagilini is working tonight and he definitley did call for 4-8” in the southtowns and 2-4” in the Northtowns as TS said. Really nitpicking at this point though. Still time for them to up it as the forecast evolves if necessary. I just went to the WIVb website and the weather page...it was Andrew still and his forecast is polar opposite of the NWS forecast...he expects the lake band to be in the city early Christmas Day and then south to ski country by evening...which is the polar opposite of the NWS forecast of the lake band shifting north by the evening and intensifying over the metro north towns...on another note on their website they have the warnings for each county and it appears the NWS has upped the totals from 7 to 17” to 9 to 17”...WIVb has the old one. If I remember correctly the storm they forecast back in January of 18 they also did a poor job with it even when all guidance suggested otherwise. They’re slipping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Ch7 just posted an updated accumulations map. Very conservative through Saturday afternoon! This is synoptic and lake effect combo. In fact they are giving Rochester more snow then Buffalo??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Ch7 just posted an updated accumulations map. Very conservative through Saturday afternoon! This is synoptic and lake effect combo. In fact they are giving Rochester more snow then Buffalo??? That’s a pretty odd map. I’ll agree with that. A lot of weird shit to unpack with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, DeltaT13 said: That’s a pretty odd map. I’ll agree with that. A lot of weird shit to unpack with that one. 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Ch7 just posted an updated accumulations map. Very conservative through Saturday afternoon! This is synoptic and lake effect combo. In fact they are giving Rochester more snow then Buffalo??? That’s just one model, not saying it’s going to be wrong as you and Delta stated I think this ones gonna have some curveballs, but you could easily find models that show significantly more than that and I think using the RPM model (or any other singular model) as your official “forecast” for snow totals on air is a pretty poor look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: That’s a pretty odd map. I’ll agree with that. A lot of weird shit to unpack with that one. WIVB is the same! I’m not sure but their in house models must be their own versions of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: That’s a pretty odd map. I’ll agree with that. A lot of weird shit to unpack with that one. That map would have NW winds...look at the snow accumulation over NW PA...it drags NW to SE...not one variant of west or SW winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: That map would have NW winds...look at the snow accumulation over NW PA...it drags NW to SE...not one variant of west or SW winds... Still a possibility at this point the storm lands up further east and the winds do end up more W or even WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: WIVB is the same! I’m not sure but their in house models must be their own versions of things. “The RPM model is our in-house real-time forecast model, and the lettersstands for Rapid Precision Mesoscale model. The output allows the display of the latest forecast information on our television graphics. Themodel uses the very successful Weather Research and Forecast model as its forecast engine, a collaborative effort between a host of government and academic agencies. The model is run every three hours out to a period of 51 hours, allowing frequent updates to our forecast products, most important in critical weather situations. Like any weather forecast model, it has its ups and downs, but overall it has been very helpful for our weather forecast efforts.” It uses the WRF as its engine which isn’t a terrible model. I often look at them in lake effect situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: That’s just one model, not saying it’s going to be wrong as you and Delta stated I think this ones gonna have some curveballs, but you could easily find models that show significantly more than that and I think using the RPM model (or any other singular model) as your official “forecast” for snow totals on air is a pretty poor look. It’s one thing if the stations “on air” do a comparison of the model output to show the general public the wide range of forecast possibilities... But Ch7 literally just posted that to their Facebook with the title “Here’s our updated forecast map, the bullseye is now well south of Buffalo”. That’s very misleading in my opinion and giving zero credit to the Buffalo NWS. In fact watching the loop they are saying all of our snow will come early Friday from the synoptic and we will see zero lake effect in Buffalo... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 New KBUF map... good call based on the current info IMO... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: It’s one thing if the stations “on air” do a comparison of the model output to show the general public the wide range of forecast possibilities... But Ch7 literally just posted that to their Facebook with the title “Here’s our updated forecast map, the bullseye is now well south of Buffalo”. That’s very misleading in my opinion and giving zero credit to the Buffalo NWS. In fact watching the loop they are saying all of our snow will come early Friday from the synoptic and we will see zero lake effect in Buffalo... That’s cause it’s some young girl who seems like it’s her first week on her first job as a meteorologist. Just use your in house model run as your “forecast” and throw everything else out the window. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: New KBUF map... good call based on the current info IMO... I’m riding the line of 8-12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 00z NAM. 12k 3k (only goes to 60 hours, still going strong right over BUF) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 00z NAM. 12k 3k (only goes to 60 hours, still going strong right over BUF) That’s called a thing of beauty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Ohhh!!! So much nicer in high def! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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