lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Lowered totals significantly across the board. Only 7” in BUF with the high end being 10”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Lowered totals significantly across the board. Only 7” in BUF with the high end being 10”. Yeah looking at the models this morning I thing our chances of a big event in the metro have gone away. The synoptic looks like our bigger snowfall out of the 2 events. In fact this map would almost make this a west/nw wind judging by the heaviest accumulation near Erie PA...what a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah looking at the models this morning I thing our chances of a big event in the metro have gone away. The synoptic looks like our bigger snowfall out of the 2 events. In fact this map would almost make this a west/nw wind judging by the heaviest accumulation near Erie PA...what a change Yep 06z models look much more W to WSW. In fact the 06z RGEM barely gets the band to the Southtowns it mostly stays over far southern Erie into Ski Country. This is why I don’t get my hopes up until we’re within 24-36 hours. So much can change once we’re in range of the mesos and they usually do. definitely not looking like anything major but at least we’ll have our white Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 53 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Yep 06z models look much more W to WSW. In fact the 06z RGEM barely gets the band to the Southtowns it mostly stays over far southern Erie into Ski Country. This is why I don’t get my hopes up until we’re within 24-36 hours. So much can change once we’re in range of the mesos and they usually do. definitely not looking like anything major but at least we’ll have our white Christmas. The way the models are trending they may keep the WSW up for the synoptic part if the Euro is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 There are going to be more opportunities I think this year for a big LES event for the metro as I believe this pattern with blocking over Greenland is conducive to retrograding lows that can get hung up over the central Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I think Saturday morning is the best chance for good LES in BUF now as some warm advection kicks on the tail end of the trough. At least with the synoptic low trending east, you end up getting more snow for Christmas morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 20 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I think Saturday morning is the best chance for good LES in BUF now as some warm advection kicks on the tail end of the trough. At least with the synoptic low trending east, you end up getting more snow for Christmas morning. Is it looking more like a high advisory event for the synoptic in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Is it looking more like a high advisory event for the synoptic in your opinion? That sounds right. 4-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: That sounds right. 4-6"? Any thoughts on track of primary wave? Are in the west camp (NAM) or east (gfs)? Or hybrid (euro)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 20 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: That sounds right. 4-6"? Yeah that sounds right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Any thoughts on track of primary wave? Are in the west camp (NAM) or east (gfs)? Or hybrid (euro)? Monty Brewster said it best...none of the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Monty Brewster said it best...none of the above All models are wrong, some give useful information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I don't buy the rdps/gdps with all that freezing rain west of the low center. They seem overzealous. It's really tough to drag in the low-level cold air while at the same time maintain a warm nose on the west side of a low. You'll have a tendency to go isothermal snow as lift increases. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I don't buy the rdps/gdps with all that freezing rain west of the low center. They seem overzealous. It's really tough to drag in the low-level cold air while at the same time maintain a warm nose on the west side of a low. You'll have a tendency to go isothermal snow as lift increases. Yeah that caught me by surprise as well. I can visualize the warm air of an approaching storm where warm air aloft goes over cold air at the surface and has a tough time scouring it out but I don’t recall too many instances after a front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah that caught me by surprise as well. I can visualize the warm air of an approaching storm where warm air aloft goes over cold air at the surface and has a tough time scouring it out but I don’t recall too many instances after a front. Yeah it's fine on a temporary basis (a few hours or something), but the idea that you're going to be getting 0.30"-0.50"/3 hr of freezing rain on the west side of the surface low is tough. If the precip were lighter/lift weaker then it would be easier to maintain the warm air aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Hey another thing I’m real curious about, I just checked the indicies and every one of them is as good as I can remember and the forecast for each is to go stronger in each direction we need (PNA positive 2) NA negative 2 and AO possibly negative 3 or 4, yet we’re seeing alot of cutters...what would be causing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6z GFS definitely a tick east and gets it done for everyone west of SYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Hey another thing I’m real curious about, I just checked the indicies and every one of them is as good as I can remember and the forecast for each is to go stronger in each direction we need (PNA positive 2) NA negative 2 and AO possibly negative 3 or 4, yet we’re seeing alot of cutters...what would be causing this? 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: 6z GFS definitely a tick east and gets it done for everyone west of SYR Post these in the general discussion, this one is just for lake effect 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I don't buy the rdps/gdps with all that freezing rain west of the low center. They seem overzealous. It's really tough to drag in the low-level cold air while at the same time maintain a warm nose on the west side of a low. You'll have a tendency to go isothermal snow as lift increases. What are your thoughts on snowfall totals? I still think 1-2' is expected by sunday afternoon across most of central/southern erie county. (including the synoptic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Post these in the general discussion, this one is just for lake effect Lol, didn't realize I was in the wrong thread! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 NAM looks pretty good, the band is still going strong beyond 84 hours Last frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Was just going to post that lol Always a tough forecast between West and WSW, I think the band may move around a decent bit..(off Ontario) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah looking at the models this morning I thing our chances of a big event in the metro have gone away. The synoptic looks like our bigger snowfall out of the 2 events. In fact this map would almost make this a west/nw wind judging by the heaviest accumulation near Erie PA...what a change Yeah this is expected but still disappointing. The probability of long duration LES events for the metro/northtowns is constrained by the calendar (between the time that sufficiently cold air is far enough south to result in snow formation but before the lake shuts down), but also by the rarity of atmospheric conditions that create a stable SW flow. Timing has to be perfect. It’s catching lightning in a bottle. And what seems to happen is that an early signal of a major event for the metro gets our hopes up until we get closer to the event and better sampling data makes it clear that one of the components won’t be there. I have to remember that we won’t know with certainty that we will have a major metro event until the second foot starts falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Not sure if posted yet, updated FD from KBUF ...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Christmas through December 26... For Friday morning, there should be a brief transition from ending synoptic snow moving into Central NY and developing lake effect snow developing on a WSW flow over the lakes. The coldest aloft will still be upstream and poised to move overhead later Friday afternoon. So there may be a period Friday morning with a meager lake response before a full-blown lake response takes hold. As a result, there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty to both the start time and placement of lake effect snow. East of Lake Erie...some models move the band well into the Northtowns while others place it toward Metro Buffalo Friday afternoon. Regardless, the coldest airmass should pass overhead Friday evening and mark the period for the heaviest and most intense lake effect snow, where 2"/hr and thundersnow will be a possibility into Friday night as the band settles a little to the south overnight. East of Lake Ontario...a similar transition period is expected, with widespread snow tapering off Friday morning...followed with a lake response Friday afternoon. The most intense period should be Friday night and well into Saturday. Similar to Lake Erie however, there`s still uncertainty placement at this point through Saturday. The best chance will probably be over/north of the Tug Hill Plateau. Then another shortwave trough will move across the St Lawrence valley and should push the band south over and eventually south of the Tug Hill Plateau. With concerns noted above, the watch will stand for now until there`s more confidence in timing and placement along with corresponding snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Not sure how long it stays in any one place, but that thing is going to paste some people with a quick blast of snow if the 3kNAM comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM looks pretty good, the band is still going strong beyond 84 hours Last frame Well we still have the NAM I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Good look! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Can't make this stuff up lol Rgem out to 84 is mainly WNW off Ontario just like the ukmet has been showing.. Granted it's the LR Rgem but it would be something else to go from being to far south to being to far north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Can't make this stuff up lol Rgem out to 84 is mainly WNW off Ontario just like the ukmet has been showing.. What makes little sense is the top panel shows the band right over the metro but the accumulation below the metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Can't make this stuff up lol Rgem out to 84 is mainly WNW off Ontario just like the ukmet has been showing.. Simulated looks like WSW off erie and WNW off ontario, weird look. I'll take it for my spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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