lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: My guess is it won’t make it much past the Erie-Niagara county boarded. There is a strong convergence that should set up somewhere in far northern Erie-southern Niagara which would not allow the band to move much further north...heaviest snows occur right where that convergence is but will have a wider band south of it with somewhat “lighter snows” I still like 1 foot plus over all of Erie and now maybe southern Niagara as well. I still think this is not much of a southern Erie event at all. Good point about possible convergence keeping it from going as far north as NT and Lockport. A fine run to me IMO. No better no worse than the last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is why we don't use the NAM LOL It’s just one tool in the tool chest. It has some value, but about as much as the rusted pair of pliers in the bottom of the tool chest. This is why we need to get in closer range to the higher resolution models can get a better handle on the many mesoscale features that will be in play for this event. You have the track of the storm which will ultimately determine the exactly wind direction, thermal troughing, convergence all coming into play and even a 12k model can’t pick up all of those subtle features. If I was the NWS I would wait until after tomorrow’s 12z runs at the earliest to issue warnings. A lot can happen between now and then and even that would give a solid 36-48 hour lead time before the meat of the event starts to get going which is plenty even for the holiday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam for comparison.. I'm riding the SREF/Ukmet and european for track..Lol As that low moves north so does the Band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: As that low moves north so does the Band. It's a western outlier bro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: As that low moves north so does the Band. But it lowers residence time substantially. Not the ideal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Almost all guidance goes more north then west..It's more about Synoptic anyway lol Probably should go in other thread lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: But it lowers residence time substantially. Not the ideal track. Not really, as the storm moves N and NE there’s a trough being left behind towards the upper Great Lakes keeping the winds backed more than a storm that would usually be in that location of Canada. Not saying it’s right though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: Not really, as the storm moves N and NE there’s a trough being left behind towards the upper Great Lakes keeping the winds backed more than a storm that would usually be in that location of Canada. Not saying it’s right though lol. I guess you know more then me about LES. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I guess you know more then me about LES. Definitely not, just stating my observations and opinions lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The only reason it concerns me is some guidance like the SREF show enhancement of the lake due to its exact track..Sref have 6"-8" verbatim with no lake effect.. Would be a major win lol I expect the lake bands to be north of me Friday, just hope to cash in Saturday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: The only reason it concerns me is some guidance like the SREF show enhance of the lake due to its exact track..Sref have 6"-8" verbatim with no lake effect.. Would be a major win lol I expect the lake bands to be north of me Friday, just hope to cash in Saturday.. I’d be totally fine with a more Westerly or WSW flow that nails you off Ontario and BuffaloWeather off Erie. I can watch him have to shovel/snowblow his whole driveway on his new Nestcam while I have a glass of Scotch and sit by the fireplace 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 ^^^ You may wanna duck and hide after that comment haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: ^^^ You may wanna duck and hide after that comment haha Haha I only joke. Somewhat. I would have no problem what so ever chasing the event if it ended up over the Southtowns. I’d even offer help him shovel, before the Scotch of course lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Icon is pretty much a firehouse off Ontario..Starts SW but by sat morning it's due west, heads back north later in the day just to return overnight/AM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Rgem backed way off on potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Icon is pretty much a firehouse off Ontario..Starts SW but by sat morning it's due west, heads back north later in the day just to return overnight/AM.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I’d be totally fine with a more Westerly or WSW flow that nails you off Ontario and BuffaloWeather off Erie. I can watch him have to shovel/snowblow his whole driveway on his new Nestcam while I have a glass of Scotch and sit by the fireplace I don't even care about my place. I was saying for a truly EPIC event, you want the GFS or RGEM track, not the NAM. NAM would get everyone involved but bands would be moving quite a bit. The big time totals is what I'm hoping for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I don't even care about my place. I was saying for a truly EPIC event, you want the GFS or RGEM track, not the NAM. NAM would get everyone involved but bands would be moving quite a bit. The big time totals is what I'm hoping for. That’s how I am. I don’t really care if my house gets hit, just want a solid band somewhere to chase. GFS is rolling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Sat morning and still nothing off Ontario..FML lol I think this event got pushed back 6-10 hours on these midnight runs. Does the event now go well into Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think this event got pushed back 6-10 hours on these midnight runs. Does the event now go well into Sunday? Agreed. The 84 hr the NAM and RGEM both still have the event going which is 7 AM Sunday. Rgem did back off quite a bit compared to 18z run as Tim stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Virtually the same on 00z GFS wrt lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Gfs was a good deal better here verbatim..18z had around 5" with ratios, 0z just under a foot.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: All the caveats aside about this still being kinda early, what would that actually equate to? I assume 10:1 doesn’t work for most LES.. That's actually Kuchera so it's taking ratios into account but yeah we usually don't have 10-1 ratios with LES..I think NWS cleveland expects 15-20/1 for their CWA. (Last time I checked).. That's why we have the highest snow to liquid ratio on the east coast.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Canadian is definitely in the West-WSW camp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Ukmet is also a westerly event off Ontario like it has been for days..Sends the LP up through CNY..At 500 the ukmet has been number 2 for many years only behind the European..It has to be considered imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 So the European also goes through CNY and gives WNY like 6"-9" synoptic. lol But the flow is more WSW with the eastward track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So the European also goes through CNY and gives WNY like 6"-9" synoptic. lol But the flow is more WSW with the eastward track.. Map? Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 With the European I don't pay attention to the numbers just the flow/wind direction.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Map? Sorry It's a tight cutoff between Rochester and buffalo verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's a tight cutoff between Rochester and buffalo verbatim.. Believe me, I noticed. But it’s good to see things still in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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