vortmax Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: They only put in their amounts for their zone...for example they have Geneva )finger lakes) with 3”...that’s not lake effect nor is the 4” for Rochester...still expect 3 to 5 for all areas east of the finger lakes for the synoptic part I'm talking about the low-end probability map. They have it at 0" for Roc because if this thing stays too far west, we won't get much of any synoptic snow. 12z NAM is still coming in even more west....stronger with the wave low by 2mb...bad look for all of WNY for synoptic. Now CLE is in play...unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: They only put in their amounts for their zone...for example they have Geneva )finger lakes) with 3”...that’s not lake effect nor is the 4” for Rochester...still expect 3 to 5 for all areas east of the finger lakes for the synoptic part If this thing cuts west over us or just to our west there is no synoptic snow to speak of lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: If this thing cuts west over us or just to our west there is no synoptic snow to speak of lol. But the lake effect would be all Buffalo north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: But the lake effect would be all Buffalo north Yes, you guys have insurance, we don't. NAM is way west -almost far enough to get DTW in the synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 37 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: BUFs first map. Gonna bust big time. Lmao. I think that looks about right but I would raise totals quite a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: But the lake effect would be all Buffalo north That's not necessarily true. The NAM shows it cutting north and LES into Ohio/NE PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's not necessarily true. The NAM shows it cutting north and LES into Ohio/NE PA. Lake effect does set up nicely right into BUF verbatim but we get virtually no synoptic anywhere in Upstate. Really sucks for people outside the lake effect areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Lake effect does set up nicely right into BUF verbatim but we get virtually no synoptic anywhere in Upstate. Really sucks for people outside the lake effect areas. But it's NAM outside 48 hours, we toss. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 That’s a rock in band into BUF, about the only good thing about the storm cutting West. No synoptic snow but I’d trade that in a heart beat for a beast band of lake effect right into the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: That’s a rock in band into BUF, about the only good thing about the storm cutting West. No synoptic snow but I’d trade that in a heart beat for a beast band of lake effect right into the metro. Those are pedestrian totals from NWS for 2-3" per hour rates with a strong LES band in place for nearly 48 hours. Not to mention the synoptic snow. I don't think totals are going to be extreme as the band will be moving quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Those are pedestrian totals from NWS for 2-3" per hour rates with a strong LES band in place for nearly 48 hours. Not to mention the synoptic snow. What model shows it in place for 48hours? The Globals have a west wind on Saturday. The NWS has the bulk ending by 1pm sat for kbuf..You can see the band starting to shift south early sat..I would say more like 24 hours if the GFS is to be believed.. Obviously could still be low-balling it..I'm speaking of buff proper.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: What model shows it in place for 48hours? The Globals have a west wind on Saturday. The NWS has the bulk ending by 1pm sat for kbuf..You can see the band starting to shift south early sat..I would say more like 24 hours if the GFS is to be believed.. Obviously could still be low-balling it..I'm speaking of buff proper.. GFS has is from 6Z friday to 12z Sunday in some form or fashion. Not just KBUF, but all of Erie county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Yawn.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 50 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: BUFs first map. Gonna bust big time. Lmao. No issues with that first map. Nice broad brush and then once we get into the T-48 hours tonight and into tomorrow they can narrow in the target zone and up the totals as needed. Easier to hold your credibility bumping up then cutting back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 My point and click, we take. Thursday Night Rain before 8pm, then rain and snow between 8pm and 9pm, then snow after 9pm. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Christmas Day Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 11am. High near 24. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow between 10pm and 3am. Low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Snow before 1pm, then snow showers likely after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Nice graphic on Chan 7 showing the snow possible BEFORE the lake effect starts. Not sure which run they are based off, but quite the spread possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, vortmax said: Yes, you guys have insurance, we don't. NAM is way west -almost far enough to get DTW in the synoptic. There’s a synoptic discussion Vort. That’s the problem with two threads... But anyways, yeah, there will be no snow anywhere along or east of the track. It’s looking bad but remember how the last storm behaved? It was way NW of where it was originally forecast. This environment will do that. Really hoping for a last minute jump east. Still possible. RGEM and NAM are always too far NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I'd like to see it keep going so far west that we just get a nasty frontal passage here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Same model, different resolution and it yields a 100 mile variance on the location where the front lies at the same hour interval. 3k says synoptic snow makes it to Buffalo. 12k says it only makes it to Cleveland. Timing of the front and the associated wave riding it are going to be huge factor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 We need to be keeping our eyes on that pulse that is floating around the upper lakes behind the primary. That’s what is gonna give us our wind field direction. Looking mighty fine so far to me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: We need to be keeping our eyes on that pulse that is floating around the upper lakes behind the primary. That’s what is gonna give us our wind field direction. Looking mighty fine so far to me! That’s the pulse I’ve been saying! It’s not the primary on this one it’s a LP behind this system...wherever that parent low goes the pulse wave behind goes. As long as the parent low is over WNY or just east we’re good. That would be about 18 hours over KBUF before a shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 ICON is terrible but 2" of QPF in Erie county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 RGEM would direct the LES band into the northtowns easily, even Niagara county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM would direct the LES band into the northtowns easily, even Niagara county I’m actually getting a bit concerned about that...the more west these tracks become the further west that pulse goes and might make a 230 vector vs a 240 or 250 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM would direct the LES band into the northtowns easily, even Niagara county Timing is getting all out of whack now! RGEM doesn’t flip us to snow until Friday AM with virtually no synoptic and doesn’t fire up the lake band until Friday night... It’s being very bullish on pushing the lake effect band onshore but even so it keeps it hung up all the way in Ontario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Timing is getting all out of whack now! RGEM doesn’t flip us to snow until Friday AM with virtually no synoptic and doesn’t fire up the lake band until Friday night... It’s being very bullish on pushing the lake effect band onshore but even so it keeps it hung up all the way in Ontario... Yeah weird run...all these models showing incredibly different scenarios is like listening to sandstorm on loop at a rave with mollies... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah weird run...all these models showing incredibly different scenarios is like listening to sandstorm on loop at a rave with mollies... I miss raving, ready for covid to be over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 GFS brings the band really far north too into Niagara county. If this band moves that much I like KBUFs map, we won't be seeing crazy totals with it moving so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z is out and still a good synoptic hit...waiting for the next panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GFS brings the band really far north too into Niagara county. If this band moves that much I like KBUFs map, we won't be seeing crazy totals with it moving so much. That’s actually a Delaware park to southern Niagara special. I grew up in NT and recognize this band...this will fire hose and we all end up with a foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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