wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Skied with the doggo today. Cheer up western NYers, this is what it will look like there too soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 So, what happened to our big pattern improvement starting in mid-January? Am I missing something, because it looks like the same crapola we've been dealing with...too mild...low too far south and east...blah blah blah. One model showing a Low over NYC and there's like no precip. back here. Another one shows the Low well to the east and we're getting light rain. I really am just flabbergasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: So, what happened to our big pattern improvement starting in mid-January? Am I missing something, because it looks like the same crapola we've been dealing with...too mild...low too far south and east...blah blah blah. One model showing a Low over NYC and there's like no precip. back here. Another one shows the Low well to the east and we're getting light rain. I really am just flabbergasted. No cold on this side of the globe. For one thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: So, what happened to our big pattern improvement starting in mid-January? Am I missing something, because it looks like the same crapola we've been dealing with...too mild...low too far south and east...blah blah blah. One model showing a Low over NYC and there's like no precip. back here. Another one shows the Low well to the east and we're getting light rain. I really am just flabbergasted. Have to get by this weekend. They claimed it would start around this time, and as we all know it takes time to feel effects of a PV split. But yes I agree with others it won't be any bone chilling cold but more so average temperatures. But with the La Nina I will take average at this point. Hopefully night time lows are cold enough to trigger some snow... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Geez150 said: Have to get by this weekend. They claimed it would start around this time, and as we all know it takes time to feel effects of a PV split. But yes I agree with others it won't be any bone chilling cold but more so average temperatures. But with the La Nina I will take average at this point. Hopefully night time lows are cold enough to trigger some snow... It looks like Europe and Asia, of course, are the beneficiaries of this PV split. We shall continue to tinker and dawdle. Was nice to see snow falling for 2 hours today...even if the dusting went "poof" the second the sun came out. haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I know, I enjoyed having coffee while watching the snow fall. It made it feel/look like winter at least for a couple hours this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 We've had snow on the ground the last few weeks here but nothing makes it feel like winter then snow falling from the sky. You can take the crusty 2" of snow on my backdeck for some snow falling. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: We've had snow on the ground the last few weeks here but nothing makes it feel like winter then snow falling from the sky. You can take the crusty 2" of snow on my backdeck for some snow falling. I will gladly take it! The brown, dark, barren landscape is so depressing to me. As I've said many times, give me the bright white of any snowy landscape and my mood is immediately lifted. There is a bit of a psychological component to it. Waaaaay too much bare ground during the winters this past decade has been hard on me. Snow cover, snow falling, snow all over warm-weather weenies...I want it all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We've had snow on the ground the last few weeks here but nothing makes it feel like winter then snow falling from the sky. You can take the crusty 2" of snow on my backdeck for some snow falling. Amazing the difference 15 miles can make in seasonal perception....We’ve had no snow cover here for the last couple weeks. Definite pre-spring vibe, especially the last couple days when temps warmed up a bit. Plus the grass is so green it’s actually not as drab as usual. Pretty good conditions for chipping golf balls around the yard with how dry it is. But just 15 miles away you’ve been “feeling” winter this whole time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The forecast becomes much less certain as we head into late Friday and Friday night. The vertically stacked system to our west will further weaken as it shifts east. Meanwhile, several models runs (GFS/ECMWF/ Canadian) show a sfc wave developing along the cold front. This could lead to a slower departure of the cold front as it advances eastward. The GFS rapidly develops and deepens the sfc frontal wave, while all other solutions are much less aggressive and weaker with the coastal sfc low for Friday night into Saturday. With this much uncertainty have kept high end chance POPs from late Friday afternoon into Saturday. Also, if the front slows there could be some minor accumulating snows, especially across the higher terrain as colder air deepens across the region. Saturday, the sfc coastal low quickly depart off to the northeast along the coast. In its wake, cold air advection nudges H850T down to around -8C/-10C by Saturday evening while the vertically stacked mid-level low aloft swinging in over the region. Expecting numerous snow showers during the day, before lake effect takes shape Saturday night through the rest of this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 37 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Amazing the difference 15 miles can make in seasonal perception....We’ve had no snow cover here for the last couple weeks. Definite pre-spring vibe, especially the last couple days when temps warmed up a bit. Plus the grass is so green it’s actually not as drab as usual. Pretty good conditions for chipping golf balls around the yard with how dry it is. But just 15 miles away you’ve been “feeling” winter this whole time. Obviously a lot of grass showing but still a lot of snow cover and large piles. My deck still has 2” on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Not the best trend for this weekend.. It’s my only hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Finally something to watch tomorrow! Maybe... KBUF bumped up a little on their map... Channel 2 is showing a 3-5” stripe now... and 0z HRRR has a nice metro hit... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Nice. Hope you get some snowfall to enjoy, Erie county friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Wish I could believe this lol Nws did bump pulaski up an inch so there's that lol Probably bump it north 10-15 miles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Wish I could believe this lol Nws did bump pulaski up an inch so there's that lol Probably bump it north 10-15 miles.. Yup same with the Erie band. They never learn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Bare ground, temps in the 30s, perpetual gray (except the last few days). This feels more like the I-95 corridor than western NY. By the way, is there any maintenance that needs to be done on a snowblower that's never used? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yup same with the Erie band. They never learn. Thermal througing is only present in early season events. With the lake at 36 degrees I don’t think it’s as likely as it is in November and December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Thermal througing is only present in early season events. With the lake at 36 degrees I don’t think it’s as likely as it is in November and December. Yeah I agree, however like the GFS has a cold bias I have noticed meso models do tend to have a south bias in lake bands...I go back to the January 2018 lake effect event...snowed over my area for over 12 straight hours, shifted a bit south and then snowed several more after. The forecast was that it’s northern extent would be the airport, I live 4 miles north. It happens more than you think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Great read regarding the SSW event and it's potential impacts over the next 2-3 weeks. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-winter-weather-europe-united-states-2021-fa/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Rgem pretty much is the HRRR but 15 or so miles north.. Going to be a close call between a couple inches and something a little more decent.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 35 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah I agree, however like the GFS has a cold bias I have noticed meso models do tend to have a south bias in lake bands...I go back to the January 2018 lake effect event...snowed over my area for over 12 straight hours, shifted a bit south and then snowed several more after. The forecast was that it’s northern extent would be the airport, I live 4 miles north. It happens more than you think. With the way this shortwave is working in from the NW, I'd favor a more northerly component to the winds then typical LES. I think max is right around airport from this or slightly north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: So, what happened to our big pattern improvement starting in mid-January? Am I missing something, because it looks like the same crapola we've been dealing with...too mild...low too far south and east...blah blah blah. One model showing a Low over NYC and there's like no precip. back here. Another one shows the Low well to the east and we're getting light rain. I really am just flabbergasted. Read this Matt, it's encouraging. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-winter-weather-europe-united-states-2021-fa/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Not much wrt synoptic on the icon but boy I'd love to have it's wind flow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, vortmax said: Read this Matt, it's encouraging. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-winter-weather-europe-united-states-2021-fa/ Hope it plays out. My outlook is based upon patterns. When you get this late into the season it’s tough to shake a crap pattern. That and this is the 3rd and final year of a typical down cycle. IDK 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, PerintonMan said: Bare ground, temps in the 30s, perpetual gray (except the last few days). This feels more like the I-95 corridor than western NY. By the way, is there any maintenance that needs to be done on a snowblower that's never used? I grew up not far from 95....winters were MUCH sunnier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 @TugHillMatt All the snow is in Japan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @TugHillMatt All the snow is in Japan That looks amazing! Those Japanese push and drive through that snow like it's nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Hope it plays out. My outlook is based upon patterns. When you get this late into the season it’s tough to shake a crap pattern. That and this is the 3rd and final year of a typical down cycle. IDK Hope you are right about being 3 of 3 for bad winters. We are in desperate need for a good winter but in all reality in need of back to back good winters it's not even funny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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