TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I've been living up here for 18yrs and I've never seen no snow otg in January especially up here in Scriba, NUTS!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Don't you have a solid snowpack still like CNY does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 All the models seem to struggle for a bit when a big chunk of cold air moves in due to a patten change. Wouldn't be surprised if things shift significantly until 2-3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: All the models seem to struggle for a bit when a big chunk of cold air moves in due to a patten change. Wouldn't be surprised if things shift significantly until 2-3 days out. I agree. It’s like they have information overload and can’t process the change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 KBUF saying just flurries so will be interesting to see what happens Tues/Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 I believe KBUF is using the standard water temp at recording location which is at 36. If that above temp graph is correct the deltas would increase quite a bit and allow for a decent band to form. Close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 It looks like some -9 850s moving across 40 degree water temp would be sufficient enough with some aided synoptic lift. Something to watch until the weekend cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It looks like some -9 850s moving across 40 degree water temp would be sufficient enough with some aided synoptic lift. Something to watch until the weekend cutter. And that cutter on GFS is now following the CMC and Euro in bringing Buffalo a good chance at an event next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: And that cutter on GFS is now following the CMC and Euro in bringing Buffalo a good chance at an event next weekend The average high/low is 31/18. So you don't even need below normal temps to get snow in prime winter, but to generate lake effect you would ideally want colder than whats being modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: And that cutter on GFS is now following the CMC and Euro in bringing Buffalo a good chance at an event next weekend That's a nice band, will be interesting to see if Bills get Sat/Sun game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 The really cold air is just north of the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a nice band, will be interesting to see if Bills get Sat/Sun game. And there will be colder air that time period. We might just time it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Oh Baby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Oh Baby! Cant wait. Glad it’s Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 If temps cooperate could be a little over performer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Matt and I will start making our vodoo dolls for you winners. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Matt and I will start making our vodoo dolls for you winners. Ha! Did you see the 18Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Para still trying to develop a wave like some other Guidance..Gfs does as well just later, it did do away with most of the rain for CNY.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Ha! Did you see the 18Z GFS? I didn’t see anything interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 European on board with several bouts of LES over the next 7-8 days..But the euro likes to jump around from run to run so I'm sure next run will be different lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 7 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Matt and I will start making our vodoo dolls for you winners. Who says we haven’t made one for Matt already... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 Probably get a new thread going later tonight as it should get more active around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 RGEM and HRRR are the only models showing this much snow for KBUF for next event. Actually the WRF models do too. HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM and HRRR are the only models showing this much snow for KBUF for next event. Actually the WRF models do too. HRRR So the good news is the meso models are on it. I do sense a 2”-4” type snowfall tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Probably get a new thread going later tonight as it should get more active around here. Maybe for you guys, Watertown, and the Tug. Here? Yawwwwwwwn..... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM and HRRR are the only models showing this much snow for KBUF for next event. Actually the WRF models do too. HRRR That looks pretty good here especially the HRRR..NWS seems to think the parameters aren't that good.. Obviously they are the experts not me lol Jumped up the snowfall by an inch here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Actually that's only until tomorrow morning so more may be added for Tuesday/Wed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Maybe for you guys, Watertown, and the Tug. Here? Yawwwwwwwn..... It's looking like slim pickings outside of those locations for the next week or more. At least the place I go snowshoeing up north should add to their coverage. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Some funny looking white stuff falling from the sky here haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: It's looking like slim pickings outside of those locations for the next week or more. At least the place I go snowshoeing up north should add to their coverage. Winona? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now