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Upstate/Eastern New York


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  On 1/7/2021 at 12:32 AM, vortmax said:

Think I see our first Mostly Sunny day potential this weeekend??

Tonight
Scattered flurries before 1am, then scattered flurries after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind around 11 mph.
Thursday
A chance of flurries and freezing drizzle before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Northwest wind around 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 26. North wind around 7 mph.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. North wind 7 to 9 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. North wind 6 to 9 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 30.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 21.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 32.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.
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Sorry, the NWS has now changed Sat to "Partly Sunny"...lol

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  On 1/7/2021 at 5:10 PM, vortmax said:

We watch anything at this point for such a dismal winter so far...

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Hopefully we can look forward to the bills for the next 2 weeks.  Maybe something will appear on the guidance by then but I am not optimistic about February either.  No until I see the whites of the flakes will I buy it lol.  

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A weak trough crossing late Sunday into Sunday night could brings
more cloud cover and the chance for some light lake effect snow
showers east of Lake Ontario and Erie. Marginal temps aloft and
limited moisture lead to nothing more than slight chances at this
point.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As the trough axis crosses the area overnight Sunday night and high
pressure builds in behind it, winds become more westerly and the
chances for lake effect snow diminish through the day Monday. The
North Country could hold on to slight chances for light lake effect
a little longer as a small shortwave disturbance passing to the
north helps cooler air stick aloft around into Monday evening.

Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will give way for a dry
day Tuesday. Another weak shortwave looks to move across the great
lakes region during the day Wednesday, which may bring in some extra
moisture and cooler 850mb temps to bring back chances for lake
effect snow downwind of the lakes. Temperatures through the period
should end up slightly above normal both for highs and lows.

Late next week into the weekend of Jan 16-17, signals are beginning
to emerge that weather could turn more active with stronger cold
frontal passage possible during that time along with a deeper trough
aloft/colder conditions developing. Plenty of time to sort out those
details, but something to keep an eye on.
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  On 1/6/2021 at 5:39 PM, rochesterdave said:

Too soon for pessimism but if the clippers all go north of the lakes as depicted on GFS, Rochester to Syracuse (but definitely Rochester) would be completely skunked. Given our luck this winter, I expect this will be the pattern! Lol

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Do you have a decent winter vehicle? We could caravan into some bands in the next few weeks if things continue to trend that way.

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  On 1/7/2021 at 4:50 PM, wolfie09 said:

Hell of a LR LES event for the southern boys on the GFS, even though the surface low retrogrades almost into HB lol.. Jackpots Matt so shift that north by 50-100 miles..

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  On 1/7/2021 at 4:54 PM, wolfie09 said:

At least it's still showing a prolonged LES event..

1815840257_d14b19e8-ab46-4b06-a5d6-44d55

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The thing that's HILARIOUS about this is that I JUST made plans last night with my parents to come down to their house in PA to celebrate Christmas (barring no COVID results)......for the days of..... SATURDAY, JAN 16TH and 17th....:lol:

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  On 1/8/2021 at 1:57 AM, TugHillMatt said:

You're pretty low-key...so when you get feisty, it makes me chuckle. :lol:

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Right!?!? We’ve got so many great personalities up in here. Wolfie is like an adult in the room. Syrmax is the witty intellectual. King is the wise guy. Delta and BUF are the scientists. Freak is the angsty teen who knows as much as any met. Tim and Vort the dreamy eyed optimists. Ayuud only cares about LES. And I can think of at least 5 smart asses (me and you and Think included). Who am I missing? Easy going CNY! Who else?the easterners. The lurkers (96!). Actual meteorologist. Lol. No offense if I missed you, my brain is slow.  

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  On 1/8/2021 at 2:39 AM, rochesterdave said:

Right!?!? We’ve got so many great personalities up in here. Wolfie is like an adult in the room. Syrmax is the witty intellectual. King is the wise guy. Delta and BUF are the scientists. Freak is the angsty teen who knows as much as any met. Tim and Vort the dreamy eyed optimists. Ayuud only cares about LES. And I can think of at least 5 smart asses (me and you and Think included). Who am I missing? Easy going CNY! Who else?the easterners. The lurkers (96!). Actual meteorologist. Lol. No offense if I missed you, my brain is slow.  

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Yes,  the Eastern NY wannabees who think we care how much snow they're getting.....

Kidding, guys! In reality, I'm just bitter you all have a snowpack during this long waiting period. (So THIS is what it feels like when you watch all the LES hit western and central NY while you look at clouds and flurries.)

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