CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 We're about to switch to all snow real soonSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: We're about to switch to all snow real soon Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Enjoy! Don't think we'll make it down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Will this be snow or sleet? Right now continues to snow well, probably 1/2" or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 It's trying...probably 60% sleet/40% icy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Dropped from 32 to 29 since the snow started, gives me a little more room to breathe lol At least wrt frozen precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Wea are all snow now as all the pinging has stopped, Thank God!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's trying...probably 60% sleet/40% icy snow. Probably about the same here. My temperature has dropped to 30. Edit: Actually I think it’s 55/45 here, haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Probably about the same here. My temperature has dropped to 30. Edit: Actually I think it’s 55/45 here, haha. You're going to have a nice layer to preserve the snowpack you have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Eventually we're going to get the good ole dry-slot so enjoy whatevers falling because it won;t be for long unless she starts to fill in but I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Wow, its seems to be filling in n nicely to our Southwest so thats interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Hard to see in pic but some monster flakes falling.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 KCHI is also having a terrible yr as they cant buy a snowstorm! They've seen less than 5" so far and it may be lower than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 IP/ZR....Prolly 50/50 here in Caz....1200'....not one flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Mix line flying north now, fun while it lasted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I figured this would happen. Like I said yesterday, the warm air aloft almost always moves in faster than expected. I thought we would at least get SOME snow at the beginning. Not this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 The critical thicknesses were above our latitude all day so expecting snow wasn't a good idea. I too expected a couple before any changeover but after I looked at them, I changed my tune as I knew it would start off as a mix unfortunately! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Here she comes, the good ole dry-slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Precip. seems more showery. Not that heavy. I feel if it was a steadier intensity we would have a better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Here she comes, the good ole dry-slot We all know...after that...the rains come. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 18Z GFS is just chock full of snow chances but not too terribly cold but definitely cold enough for snow, oh and quite a few chances for a WNW-NW wind flow regime so LE chances are looking better and better. For instance after Sundays debacle, our LE chances ramp up day after day so we'll see what happens! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: 18Z GFS is just chock full of snow chances but not too terribly cold but definitely cold enough for snow, oh and quite a few chances for a WNW-NW wind flow regime so LE chances are looking better and better. For instance after Sundays debacle, our LE chances ramp up day after day so we'll see what happens! Canadian's been showing that too. The models from across the big pond to the east don't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Back to Mostly all snow here after switching to Mostly sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Sunday will bring the next opportunity for wintry weather. A trailing southern stream upper wave sharpens northeast into the upper Ohio Valley/eastern Great Lakes as it phases with a shallow longwave Northern Stream trough. The resulting low pressure system will bring a weak warm front across the area. There is model discrepancy with regards to the track of the system and how much isentropic upglide occurs, as the newest model guidance has temperatures aloft trending towards warmer, more marginal values. Areas on the higher terrain in the Southern Tier could see some freezing rain or a wintery mix early Sunday morning, before the secondary cold front moves in from the west and brings a changeover to mostly snow. As the upper level low passes over the associated surface low, it will become vertically stacked and weaken, causing precip to become more spotty through the day and into the evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lingering snow showers will be possible as the area of low pressure and trough continue to slowly track east. Temperatures will be marginal in the mid to low 30s on Monday, some rain mixing in with any snow is not out of the question. Any precip that does fall should be light across the area. From Tuesday onward is where some of the spread in the model guidance begins to become more noticeable. A deepening longwave trough and sfc wave drop southeast and bring a cold front across the Great Lakes for Tuesday into Wednesday. Latest model guidance has noticeable discrepancies with the timing and intensity of this feature, with the GFS and Canadian predicting a much more progressive system. However, most guidance follows the sfc low with some form of lake effect that could linger all the way through Wednesday morning. Went with chance POPs for the WNY area for Tuesday and tapered off to slight chance POPs through Wednesday morning. Model guidance diverges further going into Thursday and Friday, as an upper level closed low potentially forms near the Oklahoma panhandle and tracks Northeast. This feature looks to stay south of the area for now, but will need to keep an eye on the track as newer data comes in. Temperatures during the Monday through Thursday period should generally be in the mid to upper 30s for the lower elevations, and in the low to mid 30s for the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Mix line is south again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Is that a clipper pattern I see at end of GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Canadian's been showing that too. The models from across the big pond to the east don't agree. Yeah but when do they ever, lol, oh wait when theres a cutter forecasted then their agreement is amazing, lol! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 That disturbance down in the South Central GOM moving Northward is Sundays event and i think that one needs to be watched as it can change quite rapidly from a nuisance to something trackable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just under an inch and a half, few pellets starting to mix in again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Back to Mostly all snow here after switching to Mostly sleet.. 50/50 sn/ip.....light. .1/2" of crust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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