CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Look at the moisture associated with this system, WOW, too bad the lion share of it all will be in the form of LIQUID ---in---> JANUARY! It just looks like a much bigger deal than what guidance is showing is all. Happy New Year Y'all!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 ICON probably has a good handle on snowfall these next few days. I’m not trusting the output on the meso’s. It’s just too warm. Awful stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 50 minutes ago, Geez150 said: Man I sure hope not. Not after all the chatter of mid month finally bringing some cold weather... Yeah I don't see what the rest of the forum is seeing. I must be blind, but no cold air source for nearly entire run of GEFS/EPS. I guess you could get a storm or 2 of very wet snow that is gone within a day or two but I'm not sure most of the forum would be happy with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 Final CFS for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 Buffalo finished December at +3.4 temps with 33" of snow. We're currently -2.4" below normal for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 41 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I don't see what the rest of the forum is seeing. I must be blind, but no cold air source for nearly entire run of GEFS/EPS. I guess you could get a storm or 2 of very wet snow that is gone within a day or two but I'm not sure most of the forum would be happy with that. No. Me neither. Never did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 When Binghamton got that 41” of snow, I’m curious, how much was NWS predicting the day before? I think Binghamton was just within the northern most part of the watch. I’m guessing NWS had them in that 8-12” zone? Can you imagine? I still think it’s the most remarkable synoptic snow storm I’ve seen in years. That storm didn’t make sense. Was it just the lift? It was a tiny storm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: When Binghamton got that 41” of snow, I’m curious, how much was NWS predicting the day before? I think Binghamton was just within the northern most part of the watch. I’m guessing NWS had them in that 8-12” zone? Can you imagine? I still think it’s the most remarkable synoptic snow storm I’ve seen in years. That storm didn’t make sense. Was it just the lift? It was a tiny storm!!! There were several forecasts pre storm but IIRC, 12-18" was NWS' final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: There were several forecasts pre storm but IIRC, 12-18" was NWS' final call. That’s a pretty bullish forecast. You can’t knock them for not going higher. I think a few of our members had Bing and Alb in the high teens and low 20”s. I think I said 11”. Lol That location is in a pretty good spot for banding. Storms often follow the coast and Bing is at a good pivot point for when storms make the turn from Jersey to SE New England. They have to turn almost 90degrees to avoid crashing into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Gfs looking like some of the Canadian runs with some weak wrap around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 So after the last lake effect event we are now up to 3 "Notable" events on the year (tug, buffalo, southern Oswego), I'm pretty sure the average is 8-10 annually..So while none have been"blockbusters" we are not far from where we should be.. When it comes to synoptic it's just been bad luck lol Every system has been dumping snow somewhere just not on us.. Pulaski largest synoptic snowfall is 1.3"..I mean NYC has almost as much snow as syracuse/Rochester lol The next 2 events once again favor places to our east..So while the warmer than average temps have influenced lake effect we have had plenty of chances to score snow but luck plays a big part in that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 European pretty weak with the Sunday/Monday system, brief period of light snow, has more out ahead of our rain maker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Final CFS for January CFSV2 is absolutely horrific as the long range mets from both the NWS & NCEP don't even use it, lol! There is someone who uses it quite often and thats JB, RLMAO! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I will say this though and thats the fact that JB has touted warmth for this Season since August and everyone else laughed. We'll see who gets the last laugh, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: CFSV2 is absolutely horrific as the long range mets from both the NWS & NCEP don't even use it, lol! There is someone who uses it quite often and thats JB, RLMAO! It was pretty accurate for December. It's not accurate until the very end of the month preceding. It looks pretty accurate for January with the long range outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: It was pretty accurate for December. It's not accurate until the very end of the month preceding. It looks pretty accurate for January with the long range outlooks. We'll see, perhaps some tweaks were done to it to improve its accuracy! Id like for one of these long range models to be correct just once, just like the weeklies that have been horrible as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: We'll see, perhaps some tweaks were done to it to improve its accuracy! Id like for one of these long range models to be correct just once, just like the weeklies that have been horrible as of late. You're right they are not the most accurate until the last day usually. By that time they are pretty decent for 30 day outlooks. At least the temp maps are, precip is pretty inaccurate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 There an awful lot of talk out there of cold and snow forthcoming, but like many, I just don't see the mechanism to bring a cross-polar flow into the lower 48 but, I can be wrong! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 Hard to get excited when our source of cold air is a super torch. The exact opposite of a La Nina where Canada is usually cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 Temperatures during the Monday through Thursday period should generally be in the upper 30s to low 40s for the lower elevations, and in the low to mid 30s for the higher elevations. I expect these temps for the first 2 weeks of January. Give or take a few degrees. First 2 weeks will likely be +5-10 from averages. KBufs average today High 32.3 Low 20.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 DP's are in the 20's across the area so there'll be no rain for quite some time as we'll most likely wetbulb down into the upper 20's then slowly rebound back into the mid 30's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: There an awful lot of talk out there of cold and snow forthcoming, but like many, I just don't see the mechanism to bring a cross-polar flow into the lower 48 but, I can be wrong! 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Hard to get excited when our source of cold air is a super torch. The exact opposite of a La Nina where Canada is usually cold. it's a torch relative to normal as its cold up there bro and I'd love for just some of it to drop, but we wait! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 This is no TORCH, lol, I just want some highs in the 20's for Christ sake, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: This is no TORCH, lol, I just want some highs in the 20's for Christ sake, lol! What map is that? It's not single digits here. Is that 700 mb map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: What map is that? It's not single digits here. from Canadian weather, RMLAO, Wait they are right their just in Celsius! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: What map is that? It's not single digits here. That’s his fantasy map, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: What map is that? It's not single digits here. Celsius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Are you guys serious?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 If it’s from Environment Canada it would be in Celsius. -30 C = -22 F. At -40 both scales are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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