wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Gfs trend for Sunday Monday.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 hours ago, CNY_WX said: It was a very localized area of a foot plus. Freak and me hit the jackpot. Even upstream in the band around Fulton didn’t get as much. It sure was and I doubt we see something like that for a decade, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 40 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's so maddening to see all that warm air just surge up the plain, even when the Low goes south per the Rgem. Just an awful climate element. 850 low not helping the situation.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Friday/sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 The heaviest band of RAIN, of course, went RIGHT over Northern Onondaga county (never happens when it's snow). The snow"pack" is getting obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Everything is glazed, roads are a disaster. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Nam takes the primary through CNY,need it more in SNY to have a shot at backend flakes..Need 40 miles on the NAM.. Still in its "Long range".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 33 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Everything is glazed, roads are a disaster. Drive it like ya stole it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Nam takes the primary through CNY,need it more in SNY to have a shot at backend flakes..Need 40 miles on the NAM.. Still in its "Long range".. So close Wolfie! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs trend for Sunday Monday.. This trend might bring us some flakes for the Bills game which would be nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, DeltaT13 said: This trend might bring us some flakes for the Bills game which would be nice! Bad news that Beasley is likely hurt for awhile. He wanted 1k yards in that 4th quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Toronto could be close. Classic faux sleet signal south of the lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 From @OHweather The very strong positive East Asian Mountain Torque (the very strong high pressure over eastern Asia) which is causing our strong Pacific jet stream and flood of mild air, but is also contributing to the developing strat warming event, is hinted to begin weakening in the the 7-10 day: This causes the trough to begin retrograding across the northern Pacific as the Pacific jet begins to pull back a bit. As a result, both the GEFS and EPS begin raising heights in the 10-15 day range on the West Coast of the US and Canada: With an active sub-tropical jet and developing split flow over the western U.S., along with a persistent, west-based -NAO, this would begin increasing the risk for winter storms across the eastern and central U.S. around or just after January 10th. It would not immediately be a very cold pattern, but it could be a snowy one for some areas. The EPS continues to retrograde the trough into northeast Asia in the 10-15 day range while the Pacific jet continues pulling back. I'm not sure this lasts long, but could give a window for ridging into Alaska after mid-month. With a split flow over the western US and continued -NAO, a window of ridging over Alaska could both introduce colder air, but also lead to a quite active pattern for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into the Northeast beginning around or just after the middle of January. This is still a long way's out, but signs point to a better Pacific pattern soon. Given the -NAO in place slowing down any storms over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, all we need is a somewhat cooperative Pacific to have some fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: Toronto could be close. Classic faux sleet signal south of the lake. Sunday-Monday event has a chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 This has been a very good year for weird places to get lots of snow. NWS text from Fort Stockton, TX: Tonight Snow. Low around 26. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Thursday Snow, mainly before noon. High near 36. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Fort Stockton, TX averages 1" of snow per year. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam takes the primary through CNY,need it more in SNY to have a shot at backend flakes..Need 40 miles on the NAM.. Still in its "Long range".. Or how about the stupid primary just die a quick death and the secondary takes over faster. Too much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Toronto could be close. Classic faux sleet signal south of the lake. Hey, I'll take it. Growing up in Lancaster, PA, I have fond memories of sleet storms. It's a PAIN to travel in and shovel..but a sleet-pack, encased in ice, is a glacier that thaws have trouble conquering. Back during the Valentine's Day Storm of 2007, we legit got a couple inches of snow, then SIX inches of a sleet/mix on top, then a period of freezing rain, and THEN a couple more inches of snow...and then froze rock solid the following night. That stuff survived WEEKS of temps in the 40s and 50s. At this point, I don't care if it's sleet or snow...if it's white and has a better chance of surviving these thaws and the Syracuse sauna...I say bring it on! Although, snow is much more pleasant to watch. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: From @OHweather The very strong positive East Asian Mountain Torque (the very strong high pressure over eastern Asia) which is causing our strong Pacific jet stream and flood of mild air, but is also contributing to the developing strat warming event, is hinted to begin weakening in the the 7-10 day: This causes the trough to begin retrograding across the northern Pacific as the Pacific jet begins to pull back a bit. As a result, both the GEFS and EPS begin raising heights in the 10-15 day range on the West Coast of the US and Canada: With an active sub-tropical jet and developing split flow over the western U.S., along with a persistent, west-based -NAO, this would begin increasing the risk for winter storms across the eastern and central U.S. around or just after January 10th. It would not immediately be a very cold pattern, but it could be a snowy one for some areas. The EPS continues to retrograde the trough into northeast Asia in the 10-15 day range while the Pacific jet continues pulling back. I'm not sure this lasts long, but could give a window for ridging into Alaska after mid-month. With a split flow over the western US and continued -NAO, a window of ridging over Alaska could both introduce colder air, but also lead to a quite active pattern for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into the Northeast beginning around or just after the middle of January. This is still a long way's out, but signs point to a better Pacific pattern soon. Given the -NAO in place slowing down any storms over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, all we need is a somewhat cooperative Pacific to have some fun. Jim Sullivan is the long range forecaster at Weather Works in NJ. Always has great insight on this stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Rgem with a decent front and end of the event..Messy in the middle lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, I'll take it. Growing up in Lancaster, PA, I have fond memories of sleet storms. It's a PAIN to travel in and shovel..but a sleet-pack, encased in ice, is a glacier that thaws have trouble conquering. Back during the Valentine's Day Storm of 2007, we legit got a couple inches of snow, then SIX inches of a sleet/mix on top, then a period of freezing rain, and THEN a couple more inches of snow...and then froze rock solid the following night. That stuff survived WEEKS of temps in the 40s and 50s. At this point, I don't care if it's sleet or snow...if it's white and has a better chance of surviving these thaws and the Syracuse sauna...I say bring it on! Although, snow is much more pleasant to watch. Had two 6" sleetstorms in Queens in 07. Pretty epic actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem with a decent front and end of the event..Messy in the middle lol Wow...SO close to being a decent event for the Thruway and north!!! 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Had two 6" sleetstorms in Queens in 07. Pretty epic actually. They truly are epic!!! I can still vividly remember hearing the sleet POUNDING against the windows and house all night long during the Vday storm. Also, the piles are HUGE when you plow and shovel sleet. The way the sleet packs on top makes it look like you got feet of snow. Loved it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, I'll take it. Growing up in Lancaster, PA, I have fond memories of sleet storms. It's a PAIN to travel in and shovel..but a sleet-pack, encased in ice, is a glacier that thaws have trouble conquering. Back during the Valentine's Day Storm of 2007, we legit got a couple inches of snow, then SIX inches of a sleet/mix on top, then a period of freezing rain, and THEN a couple more inches of snow...and then froze rock solid the following night. That stuff survived WEEKS of temps in the 40s and 50s. At this point, I don't care if it's sleet or snow...if it's white and has a better chance of surviving these thaws and the Syracuse sauna...I say bring it on! Although, snow is much more pleasant to watch. I'm right there with you. I'll take sleet every single day over another stupid rain storm (I type this as the rain is pounding against my living room window). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow...SO close to being a decent event for the Thruway and north!!! They truly are epic!!! I can still vividly remember hearing the sleet POUNDING against the windows and house all night long during the Vday storm. Also, the piles are HUGE when you plow and shovel sleet. The way the sleet packs on top makes it look like you got feet of snow. Loved it! Remember it being hard to plow, basically pushing billions of ball bearings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 51 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Had two 6" sleetstorms in Queens in 07. Pretty epic actually. Best icestorm I ever saw was living in NNJ as a wee lad back in early 1970s, 1972/73 ish. It was amazing. So much ice it was spectacular to look at on a sunny day afterwards. Also remember sledding in a big sleet storm back then. Different event but they can be...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 I like what the Canadian is showing for the Sunday/Monday system. It has the Low moving NNE along the New England coast. Keeps us in snow for quite awhile, and I could see Lake Ontario enhancing the precip. with North winds. IF anything like this were to come into fruition, it could be a good hit for the Syracuse to Rochester area...BIG IF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Oh, how I wish we could lock the Canadian run in! It would be well over a foot of snow with snow falling Sunday through Thursday. Perhaps that extreme West based -NAO could work in our favor for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, how I wish we could lock the Canadian run in! It would be well over a foot of snow with snow falling Sunday through Thursday. Perhaps that extreme West based -NAO could work in our favor for this one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 I think all snow lover in New York state would like that...other than those in the Lower Hudson valley and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, how I wish we could lock the Canadian run in! It would be well over a foot of snow with snow falling Sunday through Thursday. Perhaps that extreme West based -NAO could work in our favor for this one? Put the crack pipe down! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now