TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: With the colder air and a bit more moisture present farther north, the lake response will be better off of Lake Ontario. Further, hi-res guidance and the regional Canadian GEM indicate a decent plume of snow developing E and ESE of Lake Ontario on Thursday. This could result in a few inches of snow here, and an extension of the winter weather advisory may be necessary for this eventuality, however some better alignment of guidance would certainly aide in confidence of this development, so an extension will be put off for now. I noticed that. It looks like it's going to be another "troll me" event...hopefully Syrmax and I can get in on a more consistent band, but it's looking like it might be another S. Oswego county situation. If so, it would be the third band of the year for Freak and CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I noticed that. It looks like it's going to be another "troll me" event...hopefully Syrmax and I can get in on a more consistent band, but it's looking like it might be another S. Oswego county situation. If so, it would be the third band of the year for Freak and CNY. I’ll take another 13 inches, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 NYZ018-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ039-040-311200- /O.EXT.KBGM.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-201231T1200Z/ Onondaga-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango- Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne- Including the cities of Syracuse, Ithaca, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, and Equinunk 303 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna and Northern Wayne counties. In New York, Sullivan, Tioga, Broome, Delaware, Otsego, Cortland, Onondaga, Tompkins, Chenango, Madison and Southern Oneida counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the afternoon and evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, CNY_WX said: I’ll take another 13 inches, lol. lol..I'm sure you would! I was looking at the snow total reports from BGM today and nobody came close to you guys from this last event! 13 inches in your area...and then it seems Baldwinsville, Liverpool, and Clay/Cicero had a general 5 to 7 inches. Syracuse area was 2 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I noticed that. It looks like it's going to be another "troll me" event...hopefully Syrmax and I can get in on a more consistent band, but it's looking like it might be another S. Oswego county situation. If so, it would be the third band of the year for Freak and CNY. Well you won't be missing much unless you live on the tug lol 1"-2" on most guidance and it looks like Central Oswego county as it stands now, parish, mexico, Oswego etc.. That's why you see East-ESE" and not "SE" wrt the NWS wording.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: NYZ018-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ039-040-311200- /O.EXT.KBGM.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-201231T1200Z/ Onondaga-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango- Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne- Including the cities of Syracuse, Ithaca, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, and Equinunk 303 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna and Northern Wayne counties. In New York, Sullivan, Tioga, Broome, Delaware, Otsego, Cortland, Onondaga, Tompkins, Chenango, Madison and Southern Oneida counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the afternoon and evening commute. Doubtful we get much here in the furnace lowlands. The Advisory looks more applicable to the higher elevations south of the Cuse. Of course, I hope that the cold air makes it to the surface more and we get a surprise. I have noticed that as soon you take that South wind away from Syracuse, the cold air settles back in quickly and rain can change to snow here very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: lol..I'm sure you would! I was looking at the snow total reports from BGM today and nobody came close to you guys from this last event! 13 inches in your area...and then it seems Baldwinsville, Liverpool, and Clay/Cicero had a general 5 to 7 inches. Syracuse area was 2 to 4 inches. It was a very localized area of a foot plus. Freak and me hit the jackpot. Even upstream in the band around Fulton didn’t get as much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Friday night's forecast from BGM for Onondaga: (I think they pretty much have it covered...lol) Rain or snow or sleet or freezing rain. Light snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I’ll take another 13 inches, lol. I still feel so robbed over this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 A little hope. The stuff needed for good lake effect still on other side of the globe. But this isn't terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 This year is already better than last year with that great event. Give me 1 more of those and this is at least a B+ winter. My winter grades are mainly dependent on how many good LES events we get. Nothing beats those snowfall rates around here and walking around in it. Like wolf said its a drug. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I still feel so robbed over this. These things have a habit of evening out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: A little hope. The stuff needed for good lake effect still on other side of the globe. But this isn't terrible. Yes the middle of the month!!! I think the first and second half are...wait for it...polar opposites of each other 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Yes the middle of the month!!! I think the first and second half are...wait for it...polar opposites of each other Peak climo, so we should be able to muster up a little lake effect with that setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Wow, BUF NWS sure knows how to make the weather seem so un-exciting...I mean, this winter isn't that exciting..but come on BUF...Eeyore much? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Little south little colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Little south little colder.. And 3mb weaker. Good trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 @wolfie09, latest meso runs are trying to set the LES snow band up from Fair Haven to Bville to Cazenovia. But...as I am learning from you...trust the Rgem more than the others for LES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: @wolfie09, latest meso runs are trying to set the LES snow band up from Fair Haven to Bville to Cazenovia. But...as I am learning from you...trust the Rgem more than the others for LES. I was using the 12z HRW guidance as well as the rgem/3k..They all have the band in a similar location but that doesn't mean it's correct lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I'm not expecting much but some passing snow showers, pretty week sauce lol Southern tug could see several inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Roc always gets screwed in these situations if the wind has even the slightest southerly component. Right up the lake plains. Count on it. Even with a secondary. Syracuse can hang on sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Here is the forecast for tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Mid month improving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Not sure if anyone saw this but HOLY! We know where all the cold air is! https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/29/mongolia-air-pressure-record/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 The storm around the 3rd on the Para vs regular GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Mid month improving It’s looking more favorable for sure, the key is the ridge out west and the block over Greenland relaxing s bit and shifting its axis to a more favorable position...now it just has to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 50 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Right up the lake plains. Count on it. Even with a secondary. Syracuse can hang on sometimes It's so maddening to see all that warm air just surge up the plain, even when the Low goes south per the Rgem. Just an awful climate element. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 The 3rd/4th storm has more potential than this next one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 RGEM came in a smidge warmer. Unfortunate for our Eastern Ontario counties. It’s just too warm on this one. At least the mountains look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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