Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cohen sucks, he talks about PV splits every winter leading to epic cold in the east. He is seen as a joke on the NE forum. He sucks when it comes to his theory on Siberian snow advance indicator (his own theory of course) but all he’s doing, same as Webb yesterday and many other Mets right now, is reading the outputs from the GFS. In no way can be be misinterpreting what it’s saying as it’s there for all to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 29 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: You know when we were younger and we first began the WIVB weather blog all we knew were those 3 indicies and what strength El Niño or La Niña was that season...I can’t believe that with all those things INCLUDING the MJO in a perfect position that one ****ing indicie trumps then all?!?!?! Honestly I believe if that’s the case then forecasting sensible weather from here on out will be nearly impossible, and don’t let the CPC or NOAA fool you that they were in to something because if these indicies showed up in November as a forecast I promise you their outlooks would be different. I’m an angry weather weenie and I approve this message Great point! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nice cam, added to bookmarks. Vancouver is beautiful. I’ve never been. It’s an area I’d love to check out. Maybe a trip to Vancouver and then Lake Louis ski areas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Coldest frame on 6z GFS. Looks like the long range graphic Buf Weather posted yesterday (I think). The rest (and this frame, if I’m being honest) is a train wreck. I see no signs of hope. It would be more of what we are looking at this weekend- slop. I wish I could just throw away this winter and look forward to pool weather or wind events- it’s just not in my DNA. Snow is my only drug when it comes to weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Coldest frame on 6z GFS. Looks like the long range graphic Buf Weather posted yesterday (I think). The rest (and this frame, if I’m being honest) is a train wreck. I see no signs of hope. It would be more of what we are looking at this weekend- slop. I wish I could just throw away this winter and look forward to pool weather or wind events- it’s just not in my DNA. Snow is my only drug when it comes to weather. At least it's happening in the climatologically coldest time of the year which will still allow some frozen stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Coldest frame on 6z GFS. Looks like the long range graphic Buf Weather posted yesterday (I think). The rest (and this frame, if I’m being honest) is a train wreck. I see no signs of hope. It would be more of what we are looking at this weekend- slop. I wish I could just throw away this winter and look forward to pool weather or wind events- it’s just not in my DNA. Snow is my only drug when it comes to weather. To be fair Jan 15th is pretty much prime climo. So that map would likely yield snow as the precip type. However, 2 weeks of no chance of Lake effect sucks in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I would imagine this extreme westward -NAO would prevent cutters and help with those mid-west W-E rollers, and even ice storms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 20 minutes ago, vortmax said: I would imagine this extreme westward -NAO would prevent cutters and help with those mid-west W-E rollers, and even ice storms. Yeah that's what I was wondering as well granted I don't know much about it lol Source 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I also don’t understand, obviously, the PNA. If it’s positive, as it has been the entire winter so far and forecast to be into middle of winter, then why is there not a ridge out west? I know, EPO, however if I recall when the pacific was crap last year I believe the PNA was mainly positive but the AO was ridiculously positive as well and it was said if the AO would just help out we could work with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I also don’t understand, obviously, the PNA. If it’s positive, as it has been the entire winter so far and forecast to be into middle of winter, then why is there not a ridge out west? I know, EPO, however if I recall when the pacific was crap last year I believe the PNA was mainly positive but the AO was ridiculously positive as well and it was said if the AO would just help out we could work with that. It's a very marginal +PNA, and combined with a +++EPO it means a raging PAC jet flowing into lower 48. -EPO solves everything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 European is a little south once again..Tries to pop a secondary over the delmarva region.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: European is a little south once again..Tries to pop a secondary over the delmarva region.. That's a good sign... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 58 minutes ago, vortmax said: At least it's happening in the climatologically coldest time of the year which will still allow some frozen stuff. I appreciate your optimism during such a CRAP time. 34 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I also don’t understand, obviously, the PNA. If it’s positive, as it has been the entire winter so far and forecast to be into middle of winter, then why is there not a ridge out west? I know, EPO, however if I recall when the pacific was crap last year I believe the PNA was mainly positive but the AO was ridiculously positive as well and it was said if the AO would just help out we could work with that. It's ALWAYS something...we need to just face it...it's tough to get solid winter here...especially during these days of climate change or whatever it is you want to call it. This indice's not right or that indice's not right...blah blah. The science of meteorology is changing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: European is a little south once again..Tries to pop a secondary over the delmarva region.. We could be on here to something here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Both the Canadian and Euro are a bit south with more frozen for all. Happens overnight as well, which will help the thermals a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 You can see the cold trying to fight east of Ontario on the RGEM..I guess you have to smell the taint huh lol Still plenty of time for trends either direction.. European is light snow to light rain/mix and shuts off.. Maybe 1/2 total precipitation, better than a heavy rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just need this thing to stay weak and 100mi south...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I appreciate your optimism during such a CRAP time. It's ALWAYS something...we need to just face it...it's tough to get solid winter here...especially during these days of climate change or whatever it is you want to call it. This indice's not right or that indice's not right...blah blah. The science of meteorology is changing. What could overcome, or at least mitigate, this is if you moved back up towards the Tug and let us be down here! Of course, Wolfie might not like that but sacrifices have to be made. Wolfie and I, now "long suffering" Giants fans, are feeling unduly infringed upon. Maybe it's WNY's turn in the barrel with yout? I'm sure Lake Erie won't then freeze over perpetually every single December for the season... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Checking out next week...What an odd pattern setting up. Looks like the fact this is happening in January may be saving us. It's not going to be pretty...but I think most of us will be shoveling and scraping at least some snow and ice during brief warm-ups over the next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: What could overcome, or at least mitigate, this is if you moved back up towards the Tug and let us be down here! Of course, Wolfie might not like that but sacrifices have to be made. Wolfie and I, now "long suffering" Giants fans, are feeling unduly infringed upon. Maybe it's WNY's turn in the barrel with yout? I'm sure Lake Erie won't then freeze over perpetually every single December for the season... LOL...Really, I continue to tell @weatherbo that I am moving up to the UP to live in his basement...but something tells me my wife, nor him (for several reasons), would appreciate that... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Tug hill Matt...the Steve Bartman of our forum... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Definitely going to be quite warm though, that's a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Hmmm...did I say I lived in Lysander? I meant Pulaski... (bolting doors and dialing Paul Blart security) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 This is going to be a tough call for the Syracuse region. We are going to be right on the line (shocker) between warm air trying to come up through the Finger Lakes and the colder air pushing eastward from the Dacks. Models seem to be trending on the cold"er" air putting in a better fight. I saw this a couple times last winter in this region..especially November. In fact, the pattern is similar to last November, where we had this battle zone (with freezing rain/sleet/snow in this region) before winter settled in for a few weeks. Unfortunately, I think it's going to be a bit tougher for the Rochester/Genesee Valley region, as the cold air won't make it that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: This is going to be a tough call for the Syracuse region. We are going to be right on the line (shocker) between warm air trying to come up through the Finger Lakes and the colder air pushing eastward from the Dacks. Models seem to be trending on the cold"er" air putting in a better fight. I saw this a couple times last winter in this region..especially November. In fact, the pattern is similar to last November, where we had this battle zone (with freezing rain/sleet/snow in this region) before winter settled in for a few weeks. Unfortunately, I think it's going to be a bit tougher for the Rochester/Genesee Valley region, as the cold air won't make it that far west. Roc always gets screwed in these situations if the wind has even the slightest southerly component. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Sad times when we're talking about 1-2" of slop and then rain afterwards in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Sad times when we're talking about 1-2" of slop and then rain afterwards in January. Welcome to Upstate Virginia. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: Roc always gets screwed in these situations if the wind has even the slightest southerly component. On the Canadian runs, the Southern Tier and up into the Finger Lakes/Rochester suburbs get quite a bit of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 With the colder air and a bit more moisture present farther north, the lake response will be better off of Lake Ontario. Further, hi-res guidance and the regional Canadian GEM indicate a decent plume of snow developing E and ESE of Lake Ontario on Thursday. This could result in a few inches of snow here, and an extension of the winter weather advisory may be necessary for this eventuality, however some better alignment of guidance would certainly aide in confidence of this development, so an extension will be put off for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 12z Euro overall has a “colder look to it than the GFS. It has more systems with snow than rain after the Thursday Friday system. Definitely 2 different camps right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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