wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Ukmet looks decent for sun/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 55 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Even once the pattern does change, this is pretty terrible for our area. Too warm for lake effect, and too far south for the storm track for synoptic. This pattern is probably the worst out there. We want an East based -NAO to allow that pocket off cold air near Alaska to funnel through for our area and provide a slightly -EPO. I got nothing good to say about January. 51 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s a similar pattern that brought that epic mid Atlantic winter a few years back. I’ll take my chances on that. IDK. Synoptic storms could inch far enough into our region, no? Agree that it would kill any lake effect chances. What would that end up being for our region? 30 degrees, dry, and sunny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 European was south and colder, started with a little light snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 ALB going .5-75" QPF frozen here... RGEM (most other guidance too) painting quite the wintry picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: ALB going .5-75" QPF frozen here... RGEM (most other guidance too) painting quite the wintry picture. Thinking any icing is probably limited to .1-.25 for most but given your location you could see slightly more ice and maybe more frozen overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 22 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Thinking any icing is probably limited to .1-.25 for most but given your location you could see slightly more ice and maybe more frozen overall I'm in Amsterdam though, further south will warm faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm in Amsterdam though, further south will warm faster. That's right, how could I forget? Ha Either way still pretty much nothing more than a nuisance, especially the day after NYE when people are trying to move about and get back home from festivities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 It is pretty cool that this was the expected La Niña storm track and it’s definitely played out that way. Small victory for long term forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: What would that end up being for our region? 30 degrees, dry, and sunny? Right around there yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Rgem takes an identical track as the European..Cuts across southern NY and off the sne coast, better chance at a little frozen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 It wouldn't take much on the European/rgem to deliver more frozen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Definitely worth keeping an eye on..1 bump south and it's a decent front end and less rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Rgem south once again.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 6z Canadian was south as well..See what the European shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Nam cuts through CNY and transfers off the coast of SNE.. Rgem takes it closer to the NY/PA border and transfers off the coast of SNE..That's the difference between more frozen or liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Hmmm...dacks look good suddenly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3k at hr 60 east of the 12k.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 This is first time I've seen this indices and still far warmer than average temps. Seems the EPO trumps them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 3k at hr 60 east of the 12k.. There’s a lobe that extends east on the 12k. Trending colder. With rain up into Michigan and no incredible HP in Canada, we can hope for a front end thump in your area up into the Dacks but little else. Doubt it affects anyone in the lake plain or west of 81 with anything more than a few minutes of sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Found this regarding the Alaskan trough: The effects of a +EPO pattern features a persistent and deep trough over the western third of the CONUS and a Ridge over the Southeast US. Temperatures over the central and eastern portions of the CONUS are likely to feature Above normal and possibly Much Above Normal as a +EPO pattern cuts off the supply of cold air from the Arctic region and northern Canada into south central and eastern Canada... which in turns means no cold air for the CONUS east of the Rockies . The deep persistent trough over the West Coast implies significant or major weather systems crashing into the West Coast of North America. This usually brings above or much above precipitation for a prolonged period of time along with below and much below normal temperatures from the West coast to the Rockies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 NW cams. Out of Vancouver mountains https://cypressmountain.com/nordic-conditions-and-cams looks like 8” fresh. They’re in line for a couple feet coming up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Gfs sticking to it's guns.. Slightly more frozen that run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs sticking to it's guns.. Slightly more frozen that run.. We will know by 00z if it’s an outlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just going to pay attention to track right now.. Global Canadian follows the regional.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Torch City on the GFS, some 50 degree temps with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is first time I've seen this indices and still far warmer than average temps. Seems the EPO trumps them all. You know when we were younger and we first began the WIVB weather blog all we knew were those 3 indicies and what strength El Niño or La Niña was that season...I can’t believe that with all those things INCLUDING the MJO in a perfect position that one ****ing indicie trumps then all?!?!?! Honestly I believe if that’s the case then forecasting sensible weather from here on out will be nearly impossible, and don’t let the CPC or NOAA fool you that they were in to something because if these indicies showed up in November as a forecast I promise you their outlooks would be different. I’m an angry weather weenie and I approve this message 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Torch City on the GFS, some 50 degree temps with that setup. I think the GFS is really struggling right now. It is on one end, according to what Cohen just showed, predicting the PV split to occur around the 9th or so and one lobe actually centers around the st. Lawrence valley. This is a very strange location and I believe is complicating the GFS own outputs. It doesn’t know how to handle the PV in that location. It’s all I’ve got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: You know when we were younger and we first began the WIVB weather blog all we knew were those 3 indicies and what strength El Niño or La Niña was that season...I can’t believe that with all those things INCLUDING the MJO that one ****ing indicie trunks then all?!?!?! Honestly I believe if that’s the case then forecasting sensible weather from here on out will be nearly impossible, and don’t let the CPC or NOAA fool you that they were in to something because if these indicies showed up in November as a forecast I promise you their outlooks would be different. I’m an angry weather weenie and I approve this message Well a lot of it has to do with the west based NAO block instead of central or east based. The blocking is there, but just not in the right spot. That could change 2nd half of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I think the GFS is really struggling right now. It is on one end, according to what Cohen just showed, predicting the PV split to occur around the 9th or so and one lobe actually centers around the st. Lawrence valley. This is a very strange location and I believe is complicating the GFS own outputs. It doesn’t know how to handle the PV in that location. It’s all I’ve got. Cohen sucks, he talks about PV splits every winter leading to epic cold in the east. He is seen as a joke on the NE forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 56 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: NW cams. Out of Vancouver mountains https://cypressmountain.com/nordic-conditions-and-cams looks like 8” fresh. They’re in line for a couple feet coming up Nice cam, added to bookmarks. Vancouver is beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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