Upstate/Eastern New York

[DeltaT13]

Rochester obviously isnt inflating any numbers this year, LOL.  We are really scraping the bottom of the barrel this winter...  (Image courtesy of Stacey Pensgen)


 

[DeltaT13]

And another good graphic showing that a dismal start almost always means a dismal end too....    

75% of the time that we end December with snowfall this low we basically won't crack 60 on the season.  oooof

[TugHillMatt]

6 inches here. Unfortunately, the band raced through here. It was an amazing hour of snowfall. Looks like extreme northern Clay and Brewerton were the only locales in Onondaga county that made it into the band when it was stationary.

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Rochester obviously isnt inflating any numbers this year, LOL.  We are really scraping the bottom of the barrel this winter...  (Image courtesy of Stacey Pensgen)


 

Syracuse will be adding to its number with today's snowfall.

[wolfie09]

European tries.. Some light snows..

[wolfie09]

2"-4" type event..

[CNY-LES FREAK]

How much rain we getting from that cutter

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[TugHillMatt]

The low is down near Ocean City, but we are in such a putrid air mass it is barely snow in NY. Lol

[wolfie09]

 

[wolfie09]

6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The low is down near Ocean City, but we are in such a putrid air mass it is barely snow in NY. Lol

Lakes region sucks if you like cold lol

Probably would be non accumulating snow with temps in the low-mid 30s..Rest of the state is below freezing verbatim..

[CNY-LES FREAK]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

 

if only there was a decently cold airmass around then we'd be in business but its old stale modified arctic leftover air which isn't all that deep by the looks of it by the time it gets here as the return flow from the Atl HP starts to pump warm air relatively speaking our way. it would be a decent overrunning event too!

[BuffaloWeather]

Airmass blows. +4-8 departures first 2 weeks of January. Average temps start to increase 3rd week of January. 

[TugHillMatt]

It doesn't seem there is much of a clean way to get out of this crappy winter situation we are in.  It may be another winter where we hope to "just" make it to something lining up. Snowpack will not last long. Another 11-12, 19-20 winter?

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It doesn't seem there is much of a clean way to get out of this crappy winter situation we are in.  It may be another winter where we hope to "just" make it to something lining up. Snowpack will not last long. Another 11-12, 19-20 winter?

Massive  block on the euro

Great pattern if we get the epo and pna to cooperate 

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Massive  block on the euro

Great pattern if we get the epo and pna to cooperate 

Yeah, I was reading about that on some of the other subforums. Getting indices to cooperate lately has been...well, we know.

I'd prefer we get winter sooner than later...a solid blast from Mid-January to at least mid-February would be nice. Once we get past mid-February, the sun starts taking a bigger toll on snowpack...but we can still get hammered! A couple of late bloomer winters have had solid snowpacks through almost all of March.

Many Winter forecasts called for December to be our best month and February to be our worst. Well, December obviously didn't work out (lol) so hopefully it will be a reversal. It's been more like an El Nino than a La Nina.

Looks beautiful outside the window from this early morning's snowfall. I look forward to going on my Jebwalk tonight and enjoying the wintry day that today has served.

[CNY_WX]

I don’t know about this “massive” block but the operational Euro shows all the true arctic air retreating above the Arctic Circle by hour 240. All we’re left with as Freak said is old stale modified arctic air. We’re lucky if it supports temperatures in the 30s. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I don’t know about this “massive” block but the operational Euro shows all the true arctic air retreating above the Arctic Circle by hour 240. All we’re left with as Freak said is old stale modified arctic air. We’re lucky if it supports temperatures in the 30s. 

There is a massive block.  The problem is the epo.

[TugHillMatt]

Yup, so with the block there, we maaaay be able to get some system snowfalls even with the crappy epo. So, more of the "thread the needle" type stuff and then quick melts afterwards. Meh.

[TugHillMatt]

Hoping for a sleet storm on Friday to preserve as much of this snowpack before the rain and upper 40s on Saturday. Too much to ask? lol

Down to snow piles again by Saturday...maybe an inch or two of slop on Sunday to whiten things up again. It certainly looks active over the next 7 days, that's for sure.

[BuffaloWeather]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Massive  block on the euro

Great pattern if we get the epo and pna to cooperate 

Great pattern

[Thinksnow18]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Great pattern

Not sticking up for any but you’re showing January 7th. The cold dump is more likely the following week. Lots of chatter everywhere about this...a little pain now and the 4 to 6 weeks after will be better.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Nor sticking up for any but you’re showing January 7th. The cold dump is more likely the following week. Lots of chatter everywhere about this...a little pain now and the 4 to 6 weeks after will be better.

Agreed but anything beyond 10-14 days is highly inaccurate. GEFS at very end of run still showing above normal, but more manageable. No LES for 2-3 weeks. Really only thing I care about.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Great pattern

Yep mid month

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Agreed but anything beyond 10-14 days is highly inaccurate.

The only thing that's bound to be accurate about a 10 day forecast these days is that in 10 days we will be waiting another 10 days.

[Ericjcrash]

Really looking like a decent icestorm possible for me and those North and East Friday night/Saturday...

[BuffaloWeather]

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202012291718-KBUF-NOUS41-PNSBUF

[Thinksnow18]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Agreed but anything beyond 10-14 days is highly inaccurate. GEFS at very end of run still showing above normal, but more manageable. No LES for 2-3 weeks. Really only thing I care about.

I agree about the inaccuracies of forecasting anything beyond 5 days honestly but the forecast for the MMW is actually beginning to happen, in about a weeks time it will couple with the troposphere and then we’ll know more. This isn’t a matter of if but when. In fact the link I copied earlier today from Eric Webb actually referenced ‘09-‘10 as an analog.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I agree about the inaccuracies of forecasting anything beyond 5 days honestly but the forecast for the MMW is actually beginning to happen, in about a weeks time it will couple with the troposphere and then we’ll know more. This isn’t a matter of if but when. In fact the link I copied earlier today from Eric Webb actually referenced ‘09-‘10 as an analog.

2009-2010 was a pretty bad winter here. Only a Trace for all for March and 13" in Feb. We're already punting first 2 weeks of January.

[Thinksnow18]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

2009-2010 was a pretty bad winter here. Only a Trace for all for March and 13" in Feb. We're already punting first 2 weeks of January.

Well that is because we were ridiculously cold and everything went east, but I would think at the beginning of it we could score some heavy lake effect events before the storm track goes south and East 

[wolfie09]

7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Well that is because we were ridiculously cold and everything went east, but I would think at the beginning of it we could score some heavy lake effect events before the storm track goes south and East 

Yeah that's my worry, sometimes be careful what you wish for or it will be congrats DC lol