wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 12z ARW vs current radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 WRF would be a shocking surprise for ROC lake shore and Wayne county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Heavy snow falling in Barnes Corners, currently. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Flakes starting to fly here, temps still a little too warm at 36.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just measured exactly 2” in the past hour (5:54 to 6:52 pm) here in Barnes Corners...along with gusty winds blowing it horizontally at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 From NE Forum: Weeklies gone wild from mid-January onward....PAC gets better and NAO blocking looks more classic. Let’s hope it is right. EPO never gets great on weeklies but it doesn’t have to if the NAO/AO ends up like it depicts. It goes into a bit more of a neutral state and the PNA ridging pops a little more. It’s not a cold pattern up here but it is a good one for snow events. Definitely a cold pattern down south though. Weeklies could be wrong though. They don’t have a lot of skill beyond week 3. Still not a good look for lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Just measured exactly 2” in the past hour (5:54 to 6:52 pm) here in Barnes Corners...along with gusty winds blowing it horizontally at times. Nice! You live up there? I remember coveting that location as a kid. At one time people thought it was the snow capital of the Great Lakes. Before Carol found the honey pot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Just measured exactly 2” in the past hour (5:54 to 6:52 pm) here in Barnes Corners...along with gusty winds blowing it horizontally at times. Nice. Are you chasing or do you live in Barnes Corners? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Nice! You live up there? I remember coveting that location as a kid. At one time people thought it was the snow capital of the Great Lakes. Before Carol found the honey pot. That's the thing, spotters are sparse, so we wouldn't know if other parts of the tug averaged more..She sits at about 1350 ASL, some parts get up to about 2k..I guess we'll never know..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Temp starting to drop and snow sticking.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Band starting to sink south, big ass flakes that's for sure lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 26 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Nice! You live up there? I remember coveting that location as a kid. At one time people thought it was the snow capital of the Great Lakes. Before Carol found the honey pot. Hi Dave and Buffalo! I’m up here with my wife and 20 month old baby girl building her first snowman (Olaf) and sledding on a hill. Was on our way back to my wife’s families house in Lancaster, Pa. when I saw the forecast and the radar. Decided to come into the Tug Hill to do the aforementioned. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It could be worse 2020 isn't quite over yet, but barring something unexpected - For DC (downtown station plus DCA airport) has its warmest minimum for the calendar year on record, 22, beating 21 in 1949. Also the least snowy calendar year on record, 0.2", beating 0.5" in 1998. — NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) December 28, 2020 Wait, it never got below 22 degrees in DC, in all of 2020? And they got all of a dusting of snow? That is insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 After getting stuck for an hour on a secondary road and off hwy 177 in Barnes Corners, we left the Tug and have made it to Adams Center. Measured 3.8” between 5:54 and 8:35pm (roughly 2.5 hours), there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Looks like this first band has already hit its southern point. Just a few flurries here. Yaaaaaaaawn. You can see the bands already retreating to the north. Hope the band forms on the WNW flow overnight...otherwise, it's another loss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Looks like this first band has already hit its southern point. Just a few flurries here. Yaaaaaaaawn. Hope the band forms on the WNW flow overnight...otherwise, it's another loss here. Yeah WRF/3k/hrrr don't look too promising..The forecast would bust for Oswego county if it verified..Winds look to turn more NW overnight so obviously you have a chance, GL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah WRF/3k/hrrr don't look too promising..The forecast would bust for Oswego county if it verified..Winds look to turn more NW overnight so obviously you have a chance, GL.. The 01Z HRRR actually looks fantastic for my area...showing 8 to 12 inches. Obviously doubt that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The 01Z HRRR actually looks fantastic for my area...showing 8 to 12 inches. Obviously doubt that... Those brights are really showing up! Hope u get nailed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: From NE Forum: Weeklies gone wild from mid-January onward....PAC gets better and NAO blocking looks more classic. Let’s hope it is right. EPO never gets great on weeklies but it doesn’t have to if the NAO/AO ends up like it depicts. It goes into a bit more of a neutral state and the PNA ridging pops a little more. It’s not a cold pattern up here but it is a good one for snow events. Definitely a cold pattern down south though. Weeklies could be wrong though. They don’t have a lot of skill beyond week 3. Still not a good look for lake effect. Nah all ensembles showing it as you alluded to earlier in fact the 18z GFS says big cold dump still in the cards 2 weeks from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Nah all ensembles showing it as you alluded to earlier in fact the 18z GFS says big cold dump still in the cards 2 weeks from now Literally the coldest frame on the 18z GFS. I guess you’re referring to the 850’s but I see mild weather not a cold dump. Show me what I’m missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Literally the coldest frame on the 18z GFS. I guess you’re referring to the 850’s but I see mild weather not a cold dump. Show me what I’m missing? Well conceding the fact it’s only - 4 to -6 c the avg high is 31 so that would equate to below freezing temps, which like BW stated we snow instead of rain...small victories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 That's a pretty nice LES band, what's going on over there? Looks to be over Parish and Oswego? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 It's torture waiting for a lake effect band to move in...especially because you don't know if it's going to make a surprise turn or fall apart right before it hits you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I got into the southern edge of the band about an hour ago. It looks like I’ll be in and out of heavier snow for now, I’m in a lull right now but that heavier snow shower near Schroppel is headed towards me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Nah all ensembles showing it as you alluded to earlier in fact the 18z GFS says big cold dump still in the cards 2 weeks from now I don't see cold enough air for any substantial LES for at least 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Everything looks like shit over the next 2 weeks. I really don’t expect the NAO to save winter like the weeklies indicate. Sure we could see something pop but thaws will quickly follow. The hot garbage pacific will take the wheel thank you very much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Looks like southern part of the county is getting it pretty good right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 It has to be snowing at least 2-3"/hr right now and has been for a couple hrs now! Just measured at 3AM and I'm at 8" with the band still cranking so I believe this will be an overachiever and we will easily surpass the 1' mark when its all said and done. I was NOT expecting this to occur but am super happy that it is so there wont be anymore complaining out of me for at least until our next rain storm, lol! The band looks to be steady state out of the WNW with no signs of moving as of yet but am expecting it to start sagging South in the next couple hours! CONGRATS TO ME, LOL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Tug, hopefully this will sag southward in the next few hrs and clobber you for a few hrs but who knows with these WNW bands as they are very anomalous to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 We've been upgraded to a warning and its definitely warranted! .LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Oswego county. The heaviest snow will be across the southern portion of the county. * WHEN...Until noon EST today. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. I still think totals will surpass the 9" mark as I'm already at 8" like I said! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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