BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I'm waiting for June and July to be Margarita rockin in the pool. You know I can get behind that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 37 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Some of the 00Z runs are showing possibly 6 to 9 inches of LES across Onondaga county. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a Lake Effect Snow Advisory (Do those still exist?) or WWA for 3 to 6 inches with "possibly more in heavier bands" for the county. Still hesitant, as it's so easy to be burned by these events...but looks like one of our best shots so far this year for this localized region. Model qpf panels for LES are really tricky. I can see a few inches here based on duration. I've learned to just ignore LES and if it happens it's a unexpected bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Some of the 00Z runs are showing possibly 6 to 9 inches of LES across Onondaga county. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a Lake Effect Snow Advisory (Do those still exist?) or WWA for 3 to 6 inches with "possibly more in heavier bands" for the county. Still hesitant, as it's so easy to be burned by these events...but looks like one of our best shots so far this year for this localized region. Looks like Tuesday will be your best shot. Looks like a pretty decent band too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Model qpf panels for LES are really tricky. I can see a few inches here based on duration. I've learned to just ignore LES and if it happens it's a unexpected bonus. I keep telling myself I'm not going to look at the models tomorrow. I'll just drive myself crazy. 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like Tuesday will be your best shot. Looks like a pretty decent band too. Yeah...possibly some Upper Lake connection. Looks like Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Rgem doesn't really have a sustained band though, it would be a quick hitting couple inches verbatim..I suppose it would be better than nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Yep. Syracuse has only had 32% of our normal snowfall to date. When you look at all the locations on there, it's obviously been a really tough start here compared to many other locales in the U.S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yep. Syracuse has only had 32% of our normal snowfall to date. When you look at all the locations on there, it's obviously been a really tough start here compared to many other locales in the U.S. One storm. You can see it’s signature. Roc and SYR left out so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yep. Syracuse has only had 32% of our normal snowfall to date. When you look at all the locations on there, it's obviously been a really tough start here compared to many other locales in the U.S. We’ll make it up in April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Give me a clipper pattern for just a couple weeks, is that so much to ask? At least we can guarantee everyone in our sub gets to experience winter that way. I honestly don't remember the last clipper pattern, we used to get them all the time in Upstate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Give me a clipper pattern for just a couple weeks, is that so much to ask? At least we can guarantee everyone in our sub gets to experience winter that way. I honestly don't remember the last clipper pattern, we used to get them all the time in Upstate. YES, PLEASE. I think the last good clipper pattern I can remember was either...12--13 or 13-14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: YES, PLEASE. I think the last good clipper pattern I can remember was either...12--13 or 13-14? 13/14 had a great clipper pattern, was the last good one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: YES, PLEASE. I think the last good clipper pattern I can remember was either...12--13 or 13-14? The thing is with clipper patterns you get 1-6" from the clipper, sometimes more but its rare and then you get the cold air over the lakes behind which can result in big time lake effect. Those types of events add up over time. Go check out 2013-2014 LES events. We had 15 LES events that year! This is why I always say get us the cold and we will have an above average snowfall year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=A https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary1314 Rochesterdave says rochester doesn't benefit but when you have that many events, they get hit hard too. With more events you get a variety of wind directions, it really benefits the entire sub. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The thing is with clipper patterns you get 1-6" from the clipper, sometimes more but its rare and then you get the cold air over the lakes behind which can result in big time lake effect. Those types of events add up over time. Go check out 2013-2014 LES events. We had 15 LES events that year! This is why I always say get us the cold and we will have an above average snowfall year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=A https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary1314 Rochesterdave says rochester doesn't benefit but when you have that many events, they get hit hard too. With more events you get a variety of wind directions, it really benefits the entire sub. Totally agree! I love clipper patterns! Like you said, winds blowing cold air over those lakes from different directions...snowpack almost always looks fresh with continued snowfall...and then you can get a day or two of crisp, bright sunshine..and be at peace knowing the next clipper will be coming the next day to freshen everything up again. Oh, how I LOVED the winter of 13-14! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Canadian is interesting for the 3rd. GFS and Euro have storms well but wayS and E. You know it'll trend NW as we go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 19 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Long range looks pretty meh, but can always get a surprise with the outlook. It isn't torch straight for 2 weeks. Can definitely get lucky with an event. At the end of both the 00z and the 6z GFS there is a pretty big cold dump across the east and 6z would be (fantasy I know) an event for the metro that would be epic...one can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Who was getting excited about January? SSW are completely random in effecting us over here. Even with them you need a delivering mechanism, all the cold air is on the other side of the globe....again. The Pacific has been terrible for 2 years straight. We are entering top climo as January is our coldest month so we can still average above normal and get some surprise events up here.U were getting excited, that's who!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I'm waiting for June and July to be Margarita rockin in the pool. Once again bro you seriously need to move to Florida or somethingSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Looks like Tuesday will be your best shot. Looks like a pretty decent band too. That band is transient it's not a steady band it's just going to drop south so the most we're going to get out of that band is maybe 2 in if thatSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Rgem doesn't really have a sustained band though, it would be a quick hitting couple inches verbatim..I suppose it would be better than nothing lolThem is garbage, actually they're all garbage when it comes to lake effect so I don't even know why people look at models when it comes to lake effect because they're all wrong in the endSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: U were getting excited, that's who! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Well most Ninas feature good winter months in Dec/Jan and bad winter months in Feb. onwards. Just going by analogs. This is behaving nothing like a Nina, but more like a Nino. Canada is on fire, usually in a Nina they are much colder up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Well most Ninas feature good winter months in Dec/Jan and bad winter months in Feb. onwards. Just going by analogs. This is behaving nothing like a Nina, but more like a Nino. Canada is on fire, usually in a Nina they are much colder up there. very true BW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0028.201228T1200Z-201229T2100Z/ Oswego- Including the city of Oswego 346 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 5 inches across lower elevations in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Oswego county. Accumulating snow today through this evening will be confined mainly to the Tug Hill Plateau. Lake effect snow later tonight through Tuesday will be mainly in the central and southern portion of the county. * WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. KBGM ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida counties. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A lake effect snow band will set up east of Lake Ontario late this evening, move south through the Thruway corridor from Syracuse to Utica late tonight and Tuesday morning, then into areas south of Syracuse Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. This band will have snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times between 4 am and 10 am. We'll see how all of this turns out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 402 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2020 NYZ018-036-037-290915- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0021.201229T0200Z-201229T2100Z/ Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 402 AM EST Mon Dec 28 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida counties. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A lake effect snow band will set up east of Lake Ontario late this evening, move south through the Thruway corridor from Syracuse to Utica late tonight and Tuesday morning, then into areas south of Syracuse Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. This band will have snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times between 4 am and 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: At the end of both the 00z and the 6z GFS there is a pretty big cold dump across the east and 6z would be (fantasy I know) an event for the metro that would be epic...one can dream... Yeah, next 10 days not looking so good, but definitely some hope for Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Expected and high end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Expected and high end.. They already lowered it from last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: At the end of both the 00z and the 6z GFS there is a pretty big cold dump across the east and 6z would be (fantasy I know) an event for the metro that would be epic...one can dream... There is no cold on any frame of the 6z GFS run on Tidbits. ,? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: There is no cold on any frame of the 6z GFS run on Tidbits. ,? I think this is what he means. Certainly it’s not brutally cold, more like seasonable cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 He talking about the last few days of the run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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