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Just now, Syrmax said:

Here's a screenshot for Matt ... we're surrounded by all sorts of wx alerts but here we sit, damp and nasty, don't even rate a wind advisory.  At least the lawn looks nice and Christmassy green!  Sad Covidmas. :)

 

Haha...I saw that. This Pacific wave train needs to end. Cold...then as soon as Low moves in, temps pop up into the 40s with rainers. Then, it's back to dry cold with no lake effect. The 18Z runs are hilarious in showing virtually no snow for the Cuse through at least Saturday. What's it going to take indice-wise to get some real snow?!?!

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Haha...I saw that. This Pacific wave train needs to end. Cold...then as soon as Low moves in, temps pop up into the 40s with rainers. Then, it's back to dry cold with no lake effect. The 18Z runs are hilarious in showing virtually no snow for the Cuse through at least Saturday. What's it going to take indice-wise to get some real snow?!?!

Hell. Freezing.

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh. My. Ahhh.

Bring on Spring... it's my least favorite season, but has to better than whatever fricken season this is 

But Wait...There's MOAR!!  Look at this thing Beasting way out to the West.  Can only hope it pumps some Spring temps into here.  This should halfway kill off January.  

20201224_154256.jpg

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Just now, Syrmax said:

But Wait...There's MOAR!!  Look at this thing Beasting way out to the West.  Can only hope it pumps some Spring into here.  This should halfway kill off January.  

20201224_154256.jpg

I swear if I wake up to green grass tomorrow I’m done with this winter. Cleveland’s gotten blasted  numerous times, Toronto is about to get blasted again, BGM sees more snow in 12 fricken hours than we probably will all season. Everyone around us is seeming to be able to cash in except for us. Now this thing cuts further west and the bulk of the lake effect stays over the southtowns. Man o man, sometimes I really wonder why I choose the weather as a hobby haha. 

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7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

I swear if I wake up to green grass tomorrow I’m done with this winter. Cleveland’s gotten blasted  numerous times, Toronto is about to get blasted again, BGM sees more snow in 12 fricken hours than we probably will all season. Everyone around us is seeming to be able to cash in except for us. Now this thing cuts further west and the bulk of the lake effect stays over the southtowns. Man o man, sometimes I really wonder why I choose the weather as a hobby haha. 

I hear ya. It can be really crappy sometimes. We'll see... you do have at least a reasonable chance of getting something.  Which is tougher in some ways then just being out of the game...

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12 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

I swear if I wake up to green grass tomorrow I’m done with this winter. Cleveland’s gotten blasted  numerous times, Toronto is about to get blasted again, BGM sees more snow in 12 fricken hours than we probably will all season. Everyone around us is seeming to be able to cash in except for us. Now this thing cuts further west and the bulk of the lake effect stays over the southtowns. Man o man, sometimes I really wonder why I choose the weather as a hobby haha. 

What are you talking about? Green grass? D step back from the ledge man...

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23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

18z models are continuing to trend west. WNY could miss out on the synoptic too and Amherst certainly isn’t a lock for lake effect with some of the recent trends 

The 20z HRRR actually looks a little east.

Delta - What are your thoughts on dynamic cooling so close to the lift and LP? Any chance we see a changeover to wet snow in the mid-30s during the heavy precip, then to FZDZ when we get dry slotted?

If you look at the 18z NAM from yesterday (the run that trended east and gives ROC 5"), the LP isn't much different than 18z today, just more cold air further east and a quicker changeover.

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23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

18z models are continuing to trend west. WNY could miss out on the synoptic too and Amherst certainly isn’t a lock for lake effect with some of the recent trends 

Just so we’re clear the rain snow line is not even 30 miles already to the west...and advancing east steadily with copious amounts of moisture to go...we’re down to 36 already. And if I’m not mistaken a more westward track of the low would further back the winds to SW...what we don’t want to see is an easterly track

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Just so we’re clear the rain snow line is not even 30 miles already to the west...and advancing east steadily with copious amounts of moisture to go...we’re down to 36 already. And if I’m not mistaken a more westward track of the low would further back the winds to SW...what we don’t want to see is an easterly track

It’s snowing in Erie and Jamestown is down to 30 with unknown precipitation being reported. 
 

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31 minutes ago, vortmax said:

The 20z HRRR actually looks a little east.

Delta - What are your thoughts on dynamic cooling so close to the lift and LP? Any chance we see a changeover to wet snow in the mid-30s during the heavy precip, then to FZDZ when we get dry slotted?

If you look at the 18z NAM from yesterday (the run that trended east and gives ROC 5"), the LP isn't much different than 18z today, just more cold air further east and a quicker changeover.

Well if we were hoping for heavy precip to drag down cold air, the thermal profiles near ROC and East dont support it with the entire layer above us up to 700mb well above freezing.  Look at the warm nose on this sounding.  

Capture.JPG.8693c447209471ec917e720e465fd785.JPG

 

At the same time profiles a little further west appear to have a cold layer off the surface to tap into.

Capture1.JPG.96a55eda8a37dcacdfaafaf6549226a6.JPG

 

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4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Temps dropped here 10 degrees. Frontal passage? Seems pressure stopped dropping and winds shifted NW. 

I was just looking at my weather stations and saw the same thing. Dropped 8 degrees in about 45 minutes.  This could be some dynamic cooling under the heavy rain combined with a little CAA from that NW wind. Won't be nearly enough...

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3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I was just looking at my weather stations and saw the same thing. Dropped 8 degrees in about 45 minutes.  This could be some dynamic cooling under the heavy rain combined with a little CAA from that NW wind. Won't be nearly enough...

B-E-L-I-E-V-E

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23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Heaviest rain bands moving right over my house in NW Onondaga. If it was snow....it would be 20 miles SE.

Raining pretty hard here.  Its cleaning the roads and cars of salt so we'll be spit shiney and ready for Spring by the time you get back.

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27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’d be sweating it if I lived in BUF and wanted a white Christmas. The front has slowed to a crawl just west of them. At least by precip type depiction on radar. Happy to hear there’s mixing in IAG. 

Already getting “thicker” raindrops in Williamsville...not concerned...all models hold and it wasn’t really scheduled to change until 11pm or so anyway 

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Already getting “thicker” raindrops in Williamsville...not concerned...all models hold and it wasn’t really scheduled to change until 11pm or so anyway 

I think it’s going to be sooner than that. Getting food along Hamburg lakeshore at lucias. and full sleet here. Small shoutout but lucias was rated as a top 100 restaurant in entire United States. The food is the best I’ve ever had. Getting lobster tail tonight with a nice whisky while I watch the snow fall. Utopia tonight fellas! 

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