Syrmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 We're in upper 40s here, a little disappointing. Was holding out hope for torching to nearer 60 for a bit but alas. No Covidmas joy to be found! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Here's a screenshot for Matt ... we're surrounded by all sorts of wx alerts but here we sit, damp and nasty, don't even rate a wind advisory. At least the lawn looks nice and Christmassy green! Sad Covidmas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, Syrmax said: Here's a screenshot for Matt ... we're surrounded by all sorts of wx alerts but here we sit, damp and nasty, don't even rate a wind advisory. At least the lawn looks nice and Christmassy green! Sad Covidmas. Haha...I saw that. This Pacific wave train needs to end. Cold...then as soon as Low moves in, temps pop up into the 40s with rainers. Then, it's back to dry cold with no lake effect. The 18Z runs are hilarious in showing virtually no snow for the Cuse through at least Saturday. What's it going to take indice-wise to get some real snow?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 We do have this in our back pocket though for NYE Festivus, for when Matt gets back. (if it looks familiar, its cuz its LOCKED IN). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Haha...I saw that. This Pacific wave train needs to end. Cold...then as soon as Low moves in, temps pop up into the 40s with rainers. Then, it's back to dry cold with no lake effect. The 18Z runs are hilarious in showing virtually no snow for the Cuse through at least Saturday. What's it going to take indice-wise to get some real snow?!?! Hell. Freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We do have this in our back pocket though for NYE Festivus, for when Matt gets back. (if it looks familiar, its cuz its LOCKED IN). Oh. My. Ahhh. Bring on Spring... it's my least favorite season, but has to better than whatever fricken season this is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh. My. Ahhh. Bring on Spring... it's my least favorite season, but has to better than whatever fricken season this is But Wait...There's MOAR!! Look at this thing Beasting way out to the West. Can only hope it pumps some Spring temps into here. This should halfway kill off January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, Syrmax said: But Wait...There's MOAR!! Look at this thing Beasting way out to the West. Can only hope it pumps some Spring into here. This should halfway kill off January. I swear if I wake up to green grass tomorrow I’m done with this winter. Cleveland’s gotten blasted numerous times, Toronto is about to get blasted again, BGM sees more snow in 12 fricken hours than we probably will all season. Everyone around us is seeming to be able to cash in except for us. Now this thing cuts further west and the bulk of the lake effect stays over the southtowns. Man o man, sometimes I really wonder why I choose the weather as a hobby haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I swear if I wake up to green grass tomorrow I’m done with this winter. Cleveland’s gotten blasted numerous times, Toronto is about to get blasted again, BGM sees more snow in 12 fricken hours than we probably will all season. Everyone around us is seeming to be able to cash in except for us. Now this thing cuts further west and the bulk of the lake effect stays over the southtowns. Man o man, sometimes I really wonder why I choose the weather as a hobby haha. I hear ya. It can be really crappy sometimes. We'll see... you do have at least a reasonable chance of getting something. Which is tougher in some ways then just being out of the game... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I swear if I wake up to green grass tomorrow I’m done with this winter. Cleveland’s gotten blasted numerous times, Toronto is about to get blasted again, BGM sees more snow in 12 fricken hours than we probably will all season. Everyone around us is seeming to be able to cash in except for us. Now this thing cuts further west and the bulk of the lake effect stays over the southtowns. Man o man, sometimes I really wonder why I choose the weather as a hobby haha. What are you talking about? Green grass? D step back from the ledge man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: What are you talking about? Green grass? D step back from the ledge man... 18z models are continuing to trend west. WNY could miss out on the synoptic too and Amherst certainly isn’t a lock for lake effect with some of the recent trends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I dunno...blocking could mend this when it materializes which I think it will. Everything will be transient. Snow/cold and then the warm cutter when the block fades. The pacific doesn’t have all the cards, all the time this year (perhaps more of the time, however.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: 18z models are continuing to trend west. WNY could miss out on the synoptic too and Amherst certainly isn’t a lock for lake effect with some of the recent trends The 20z HRRR actually looks a little east. Delta - What are your thoughts on dynamic cooling so close to the lift and LP? Any chance we see a changeover to wet snow in the mid-30s during the heavy precip, then to FZDZ when we get dry slotted? If you look at the 18z NAM from yesterday (the run that trended east and gives ROC 5"), the LP isn't much different than 18z today, just more cold air further east and a quicker changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: 18z models are continuing to trend west. WNY could miss out on the synoptic too and Amherst certainly isn’t a lock for lake effect with some of the recent trends Just so we’re clear the rain snow line is not even 30 miles already to the west...and advancing east steadily with copious amounts of moisture to go...we’re down to 36 already. And if I’m not mistaken a more westward track of the low would further back the winds to SW...what we don’t want to see is an easterly track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Just so we’re clear the rain snow line is not even 30 miles already to the west...and advancing east steadily with copious amounts of moisture to go...we’re down to 36 already. And if I’m not mistaken a more westward track of the low would further back the winds to SW...what we don’t want to see is an easterly track It’s snowing in Erie and Jamestown is down to 30 with unknown precipitation being reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 31 minutes ago, vortmax said: The 20z HRRR actually looks a little east. Delta - What are your thoughts on dynamic cooling so close to the lift and LP? Any chance we see a changeover to wet snow in the mid-30s during the heavy precip, then to FZDZ when we get dry slotted? If you look at the 18z NAM from yesterday (the run that trended east and gives ROC 5"), the LP isn't much different than 18z today, just more cold air further east and a quicker changeover. Well if we were hoping for heavy precip to drag down cold air, the thermal profiles near ROC and East dont support it with the entire layer above us up to 700mb well above freezing. Look at the warm nose on this sounding. At the same time profiles a little further west appear to have a cold layer off the surface to tap into. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Here’s a kick in the you know where, it was snowing this afternoon in Atlanta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Temps dropped here 10 degrees. Frontal passage? Seems pressure stopped dropping and winds shifted NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: Temps dropped here 10 degrees. Frontal passage? Seems pressure stopped dropping and winds shifted NW. I was just looking at my weather stations and saw the same thing. Dropped 8 degrees in about 45 minutes. This could be some dynamic cooling under the heavy rain combined with a little CAA from that NW wind. Won't be nearly enough... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Temps down to 35 at Williamsville and snow already mixing in near Niagara Falls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I was just looking at my weather stations and saw the same thing. Dropped 8 degrees in about 45 minutes. This could be some dynamic cooling under the heavy rain combined with a little CAA from that NW wind. Won't be nearly enough... B-E-L-I-E-V-E 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Heaviest rain bands moving right over my house in NW Onondaga. If it was snow....it would be 20 miles SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I’d be sweating it if I lived in BUF and wanted a white Christmas. The front has slowed to a crawl just west of them. At least by precip type depiction on radar. Happy to hear there’s mixing in IAG. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 34 degrees and starting to mix 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Heaviest rain bands moving right over my house in NW Onondaga. If it was snow....it would be 20 miles SE. Raining pretty hard here. Its cleaning the roads and cars of salt so we'll be spit shiney and ready for Spring by the time you get back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’d be sweating it if I lived in BUF and wanted a white Christmas. The front has slowed to a crawl just west of them. At least by precip type depiction on radar. Happy to hear there’s mixing in IAG. Already getting “thicker” raindrops in Williamsville...not concerned...all models hold and it wasn’t really scheduled to change until 11pm or so anyway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 34 degrees and starting to mix All eyes on the critical thicknesses as they inch East. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Raining pretty hard here. Its cleaning the roads and cars of salt so we'll be spit shiney and ready for Spring by the time you get back. Beach weather in Syracuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Already getting “thicker” raindrops in Williamsville...not concerned...all models hold and it wasn’t really scheduled to change until 11pm or so anyway I think it’s going to be sooner than that. Getting food along Hamburg lakeshore at lucias. and full sleet here. Small shoutout but lucias was rated as a top 100 restaurant in entire United States. The food is the best I’ve ever had. Getting lobster tail tonight with a nice whisky while I watch the snow fall. Utopia tonight fellas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Syrmax said: We're in upper 40s here, a little disappointing. Was holding out hope for torching to nearer 60 for a bit but alas. No Covidmas joy to be found! We managed to hit 53 today. Was quite balmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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