rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 33 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hrrr is junk beyond 6 8 hours. Lol You realize you say stuff like that Everytime you don’t like it. Right? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Lots of freezing rain in finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Guess it will be a slop fest. A bunch of unknown precip. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 0z NAM is disappointing. Going to bed and dreaming of an east trend again.. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Disappointing 0z runs. It’ll be interesting to see what GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 RGEM is a bit east: 18z: 00z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Disappointing 0z runs. It’ll be interesting to see what GFS does. Yup. Roc is really in a tight spot on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 GFS is a bit west. Boo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Rochesters point and click says green Christmas. Changeover doesn’t happen until 5/6 and snow is over by 7. Yuck. NWS is definitely tossing the gfs. I think we still have a shot but that’s a gut punch... Edit - I guess any snow during that changeover should really stick so perhaps not truly green, but not a true white Christmas by the definition either (1” on the ground). A coating will do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just continues looking worse for the weekend. On to January. Yaaaaawn 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Rochesters point and click says green Christmas. Changeover doesn’t happen until 5/6 and snow is over by 7. Yuck. NWS is definitely tossing the gfs. I think we still have a shot but that’s a gut punch... Edit - I guess any snow during that changeover should really stick so perhaps not truly green, but not a true white Christmas by the definition either (1” on the ground). A coating will do We hold out hope. It’s kind of now cast at this point. These things often track a bit east at the last second (seems only when it hurts us). It’s close. But unlikely. Look at it this way, it would be a true Christmas miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 hours ago, rochesterdave said: We hold out hope. It’s kind of now cast at this point. These things often track a bit east at the last second (seems only when it hurts us). It’s close. But unlikely. Look at it this way, it would be a true Christmas miracle! Yeah, ur talking about these like you've seen one of these anomalous SLP's before, lol, they often go a bit East, RLMAO. come on guys, this one sailed a long time ago but we're such weather junkies that we refuse to see the writing on the wall, lol, me included! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2" of rain on Christmas Eve is just absolutely disgusting to say the least! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: 2" of rain on Christmas Eve is just absolutely disgusting to say the least! 54 here already in NYC Disgusting after 10 inches of snow this time last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 It's gonna go negative somewhere over Illinois-Indiana, , what a joke, congrats Detroit. I mean seriously, can anything go right this year???? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Channel 4 in house just for synoptic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 It’s sad Christmas Eve in the Roc and finger lakes. Our ship has sailed. We must have been on the naughty list. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 16 hours ago, vortmax said: I don't agree. See this: The 06Z and 18Z model runs are just as accurate as the 00Z and 12Z runs. The sondes are a small part of the obs for model initial conditions these days. There are also satellite data and ACARS aircraft data among other data going into the model (VAD winds, NOAA profilers, buoys, ships, GOES cloud winds, GOES cloud-top pressures, GPS precipitable water, radar reflectivity and lightning, the list goes on and on). The model background also carries information from previous obs Yeah, I've read that, or something similar in the past. My thinking is that the more you run a program with millions of changing inputs, the more variability you may likely get. I still casually observe the "off hour" runs to offer 'interesting" solutions quite often. In the case of this storm it's more noticeable as the area is right near the line between pretty different outcomes for Xmas holiday, which others have pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 40 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: It’s sad Christmas Eve in the Roc and finger lakes. Our ship has sailed. We must have been on the naughty list. There's always a Christmas Miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 We change to snow between 4-6 pm, look at those lakes firing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 This one stings. Perhaps the worst start to winter I can ever remember. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Looks like the only hope for CNY on getting a "White" Christmas is some random wrap-around snow showers (that mostly look to go south of Syracuse along the Southern tier...lol). This cold season has by far been worse than last year's so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Looks like we get a slightly better Pacific into the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like we get a slightly better Pacific into the new year Thanks. I need some talking off the ledge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 Anyone remember the old school weather channel on the 8s forecast. I remember watching this for dec 1995 LES event in the city as a kid. The nostalgia lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 12z UKMET keeps accumulating snow west of even BUF. The 6z EURO was very west but kept BUF in the white for Christmas Eve! GFS has taken another giant steaming dump on the bed. It simply cannot be allowed in the house anymore. It’s been awful these last two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Why are there river flood warnings already? I figured they’d wait until the rain at least got here and the streams at least started coming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Anyone remember the old school weather channel on the 8s forecast. I remember watching this for dec 1995 LES event in the city as a kid. The nostalgia lol. The sickness was strong in me as a kid. I’d watch all night. Waiting for the radar. Or the crawl when NWS upgraded to a warning or watch. I nearly fell down the stairs when in 1993 the whole screen went red and announced a Blizzard Warning for all of NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 GEFS pretty tightly clustered, pretty much now casting time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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