Syrmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This is good 12z vs 18z I'd be careful drinking too much Hopeium based on 6/18Z runs...tend to be a lot of noise. Once in a while they can be useful for trends. We'll see later tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I'd be careful drinking too much Hopeium based on 6/18Z runs...tend to be a lot of noise. Once in a while they can be useful for trends. We'll see later tonight. I don't agree. See this: The 06Z and 18Z model runs are just as accurate as the 00Z and 12Z runs. The sondes are a small part of the obs for model initial conditions these days. There are also satellite data and ACARS aircraft data among other data going into the model (VAD winds, NOAA profilers, buoys, ships, GOES cloud winds, GOES cloud-top pressures, GPS precipitable water, radar reflectivity and lightning, the list goes on and on). The model background also carries information from previous obs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Point and Click is depressing...lol - Time to start thinking of the wording BUF! Thursday Night Rain before 4am, then a chance of snow. Low around 29. South wind around 15 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Christmas Day A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. West wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Anyone get a peak at 18z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: Anyone get a peak at 18z EURO? Don’t have a subscription Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Don’t have a subscription Me neither. Not sure it’s worth it this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Me neither. Not sure it’s worth it this winter... The only essentials this winter is a fridge full of beer and finding a cure for the Matt curse 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: For here I will have to rely on the lake, what's new? Lol I just hope I don't get skunked there too... There's absolutely NO WAY Syracuse doesn't see 2-4" as its just not gonna dissipate/ dry up from KROC to My crib as its 45 miles away, NEVER, but can it happen, in 2020 anything that can happen, WILL HAPPEN ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Not a bad look as it won't take long to whiten things up around here even after a soaker! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The only essentials this winter is a fridge full of beer and finding a cure for the Matt curse Yeah. We gotta mail Matt to Southeast Asia. He’s a hex 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 18z EURO shifted west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 That right there is a Pattern Rearranger, lol, another words it shakes up or shall I say buckles the pattern completely. Look at the CAA with this SLP and there's nothing stopping it except this ENORMOUS HP that encompasses the Whole North Atlantic, can anyone say -NAO well there is but the position isn't that favorable, YET! A 1044 HP, 2 of them, lol so this thing is gonna stop or come to a screeching halt somewhere in the NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The only essentials this winter is a fridge full of beer and finding a cure for the Matt curse 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah. We gotta mail Matt to Southeast Asia. He’s a hex Lol...true that. Please don't dump my body in the middle of the Gulf of Alaska... although it might be the only way to break up a Polar Vortex..... 63 degrees down here in Tennessee today. It actually felt a bit chilly with the stiff wind. Obviously I chuckled with seeing some people bundled up in full winter gear...while some wear shorts pretty much all the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 The models are seriously all over the place with this one, WOW even worse than the last and it still came West further than what the Models suggested. The SREF's pegged that last one so.... What does the GFS Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Hoe are we not gonna get absolutely Clobbered with this king of Negatively tilted 500MB trough. Man what a thing of beauty really though, waht am I missing or better yet what are the models missing? At this time there should be a SLP sitting somewhere near the Delmarva and waiting for the ULL to capture it and bring it North maybe even retro it a bit and completely slow it down for a day or 2 as the blocking is strong so I call bullshit on this thing coming up west of the spine, No way it doesn't snow as Im riding the SREF's Start throwing them, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 This thing is an absolute beast, seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 18z EURO shifted west. 10:1 up close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Disappointed that the 18z Euro went west. Not sure if the off-runs on the Euro are worse? Either way, this one is gonna come down to a nowcast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 0z ought to give us a better idea. I’m super reluctant to buy the GFS. But damn if it aint consistent and it has the 12k NAM to back it up. Everything else is in the other camp. BUF is pretty much a lock. As is Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 37 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The models are seriously all over the place with this one, WOW even worse than the last and it still came West further than what the Models suggested. The SREF's pegged that last one so.... What does the GFS Para? The models are doing well for both this storm and the last storm in my opinion. The issue is that us super weather nerds are expecting a resolution that just doesn’t exist. This storm has been more or less nailed down to less than 100 miles of variation for nearly 6 days. It’s pretty phenomenal. We just happen to care about subtle nuances where 10 or 20 miles shifts the axis over someone else’s backyard on this forum.... Sure a sliver of people in every storm may not get exactly what they expected but overall this storm has been locked for days and days on a large scale. I think the models are doing alright. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 After saying that I’m looking back at how this storm was forecasted back last Friday. She’s certainly lost some steam since then. There were some pretty juicy runs early on :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 BUF upped their totals a bit. Maybe after seeing 18z runs... More of a westerly flow for LE... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: The models are doing well for both this storm and the last storm in my opinion. The issue is that us super weather nerds are expecting a resolution that just doesn’t exist. This storm has been more or less nailed down to less than 100 miles of variation for nearly 6 days. It’s pretty phenomenal. We just happen to care about subtle nuances where 10 or 20 miles shifts the axis over someone else’s backyard on this forum.... Sure a sliver of people in every storm may not get exactly what they expected but overall this storm has been locked for days and days on a large scale. I think the models are doing alright. IDK. When we are 24 hrs out and the RGEM shows accumulating snow end at BUF while the 12K takes it to I81? I wouldn’t give them high marks. Yeah, the overall idea has been there. Like you always said, it’s a rough one to pin down. Lots of moving parts. Kinda fun actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: IDK. When we are 24 hrs out and the RGEM shows accumulating snow end at BUF while the 12K takes it to I81? I wouldn’t give them high marks. Yeah, the overall idea has been there. Like you always said, it’s a rough one to pin down. Lots of moving parts. Kinda fun actually. Yeah, the sensible weather differences 24hrs out are significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: IDK. When we are 24 hrs out and the RGEM shows accumulating snow end at BUF while the 12K takes it to I81? I wouldn’t give them high marks. Yeah, the overall idea has been there. Like you always said, it’s a rough one to pin down. Lots of moving parts. Kinda fun actually. I think that’s a good point to enforce here. This type of fast paced cyclogenesis is really hard for the models to pin down with high resolution. It is a somewhat unusual storm evolution in my book. And I agree to some degree that the models are waffling a bit, but it’s also only a difference of about 75 miles. We are just hyper focused on those 75 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Nam staring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Hrrr is junk beyond 6 8 hours. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 NAM is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: NAM is west Just a tad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now